Coaches impact the game in a multitude of unquantifiable ways. It could be with positive reinforcement to players. It could be with in-game adjustments. It could be with lineup decisions. There are millions of nuanced methods coaches impact the game with. But almost all of them go unnoticed to the athletic directors and fans. The only thing that makes a “good coach” to them is the number of wins. Athletic directors and fans see the standings, and fail to capture almost everything else that occurs.
Now, there is finally a more accurate and justifiable way to quantify a “good coach” beyond wins— the efficiency of drawn-up plays. After a timeout, every single coach draws up a play, or calls an out of bounds play to run. Obviously, there are confounding factors. Some coaches have better talent than others, but there is a clear correlation between great coaching and great plays drawn up. This is the method with which athletic directors need to evaluate their basketball coaches, rather than a few lucky bounces that inflate or deflate their respective win-loss record, effectiveness of drawn plays is a direct representation of coaching ability.
I analyzed the Shot Quality of every single play after a timeout, and quantified each coach’s ShotQuality Points Per Possession . These were the results of the top 10:
There is much to analyze from this list, but from first glance, you will notice that coaches like Bill Self, Coach K, Jay Wright, Roy Williams, Mark Few, Tony Bennett, Tom Izzo and John Calipari are all excluded. These coaches are perceived as the preeminent coaches in the world, but seemingly don’t draw up the best plays for their respective teams, even with copious amounts of talent at their disposal. We tend to lionize and glorify the coaches that get results (wins!), but fail to recognize everything else a coach can bring to the table. I’m not disparaging these legendary coaches’ successes, but still think it’s noteworthy that they didn’t make the list.
Looking at the top two members of the list, Todd Lee and Craig Smith, they were both hired by the same man, David Herbster, the athletic director of the University of South Dakota. I’m not sure if Herbster was scouting for a coach who could draw up great plays, but it’s clear that both Lee and Smith were groomed in the same coaching circle.
Of Todd Lee’s out of bounds plays, 57% resulted in either three point shots or shots at the rim—an impeccable rate—and absolutely conducive for a good shot quality. Craig Smith, similarly, had a stupendous rate of 65% of shots at the rim or three point land. Two great coaches that don’t get the recognition that they deserve!
Some of the other top coaches on this list represent Dayton, BYU, and Vanderbilt. Each of these coaches, Anthony Grant, Mark Pope and Jerry Stackhouse deserve more acknowledgement not only for their great play drawing abilities, but also for their efficient offense because they had an Adjusted Offensive ShotQuality above the 85th percentile!
It’s challenging to highlight every coach on this list, but if you look hard enough, you can find some great minds that clearly have an aptitude for drawing up the most efficient plays for their team. Some of these coaches include James Jones, Bob Richie and Joe Pasternack.
Rather than coming to a quick, abrupt conclusion on a coach’s ability based on a team’s wins and losses, try and use this stat as an indicator of coaching success. If you want to search any other coaches on this list, go to their respective team page, and see how each coach ranks in ShotQuality after timeout plays.