As the 2022 college basketball season rolls on and March Madness gets closer and closer, the NBA Draft talk seems to fade out to most. The emphasis turns to bracketology, bubble teams, and conference championships. Not that those things are unimportant, but the NBA Draft talk this season is unusually interesting, as there is no clear consensus.
The first overall pick can be any one of Jabari Smith Jr., Paolo Banchero, Chet Holmgren, and even AJ Griffin. Any of 30+ guys can reasonably be picked in the lottery, and great international prospects continue to pop out of the woodwork. Because of these reasons, this class seems to have a lot of parallels to the 2014 NBA Draft with Andrew Wiggins, Jabari Parker, and Joel Embiid (and 41st overall pick Nikola Jokic). With this in mind, I also think this is a weaker class outside of that top 4. I like ~10 guys, but after the lottery it really feels significantly weaker than previous years.
However, as we approach the ides of March, prospects will many opportunities to grow their draft stocks. There are always the March Madness climbers, who ride late season hot streaks into NBA Draft circles (think Johnny Juzang/Buddy Boeheim last season, or Syracuse’s Malachi Richardson in 2016). With this in mind, there is still a lot of evaluating to do, so this is only the first version of this list.
Before we get into the nuances of the ShotQuality Big Board, I first wanted to specify that this is not a mock draft. These are rankings based off eye test with ShotQuality statistics to supplement the evaluations. As we approach draft season, we will release a more data-oriented machine learning model based on 8+ years of NCAA/NBA stats, so stay tuned for that.
1. Jabari Smith Jr.
Height: 6’10 | Draft Age: 19.2
Jabari’s game has really grown on me. He’s a strong, fluid athlete with a quick trigger who is in the 95th percentile in 3-point Efficiency. His size allows him to shoot over good contests, flashing really valuable shot-creation skills. Defensively, he projects as a switchable defender who can slide over and protect the rim (95th percentile in Blocks). Usually, with early picks I prefer can’t-miss prospects in the mold of Zion, Fultz, KAT, and Anthony Davis (even though it seems as if 50% of those guys are busts), and Jabari is not that (nor does this class have one). He definitely needs to tighten up the handle so he doesn’t need to settle for so many contested jumpers. However, his elite shot-making potential coupled with a plus defender makes him my current #1.
2. Chet Holmgren
Height: 7’1 | Draft Age: 20.1
Chet Holmgren is this year’s unicorn prospect. The 195 pound 7 footer is one of the most efficient players in college basketball on both ends of the floor, as he is in the 92nd percentile in Efficiency at the Rim, 76th percentile in 3-point Efficiency, and the 100th percentile (!!!) in Blocks. He’s shown a consistent perimeter jumper, an impossibly wide shot blocking radius, and a knack for being in the right place at the right time. His weight is a flaw that will be discussed ad nauseam, and rightfully so. Also, playing on Gonzaga has shown his strengths and masked his flaws more than any other situation he could be in. Overall, Chet’s shown everything you could possibly want beside the difficult shot-making that Jabari has shown, which is why he’s number 2 on my board.
3. AJ Griffin
Height: 6’6 | Draft Age: 18.8
The number one prospect from Duke on the ShotQuality board is not Paolo Banchero. Griffin, a full year younger, projects as a better bet to be an elite 3-level scorer and has prototypical positional size. This season, Griffin is in the 97th percentile in Catch & Shoot 3s, the 88th percentile in Off the Dribble 3s, and the 85th percentile in At Rim Efficiency. His shooting has been a huge revelation since his right knee injury early in the season played a part in his slow start (and also may have sapped some of his athleticism). Griffin’s defense hasn’t been perfect, and his athleticism hasn’t been as good as advertised, but AJ’s youth and shot-making gives him the nod over Paolo.
4. Paolo Banchero
Height: 6’9 | Draft Age: 19.8
Banchero is still a great prospect but just out of the ShotQuality top 3. Paolo has a high basketball IQ, an NBA ready build, and a silky smooth midrange jumper. His shot creation upside is really tantalizing – he is in the 96th percentile in long midrange jumpers and the 81st percentile on Short Midrange Jumpers to compound his elite face-up game. He generates defensive stops, with really great block & steal numbers. With the 3-point numbers not being fully there yet (hovering around NCAA average), there’s a real worry he ends up as another Marvin Bagley.
5. Shaedon Sharpe
Height: 6’5 | Draft Age: 19.1
Shaedon Sharpe, for those of you who strictly follow college basketball, was the #1 recruit in the class of 2022 who decided to enroll at Kentucky early. He has not played a minute for the Wildcats so far this season but his skillset at a young age has a lot of NBA teams interested. Sharpe jumps out of the gym and excels in transition, able to catch a lob from anywhere with his near 7 foot wingspan. He also possesses an elite jump shot with solid mechanics that he gets into with ease, along with a strong defensive toolbox. His game definitely lacks refinement in a lot of areas, and practicing at Kentucky everyday with a pro-style coaching staff could help in this department. However, it remains to be seen if sitting out a full season will be beneficial to his development
6. Bennedict Mathurin
Height: 6’7 | Draft Age: 20.2
This might be a questionable placement for Mathurin but he simply looks the part. Mathurin, a sophomore at Arizona, has all the tools – great size for a wing, athleticism that jumps out of the gym, and a picture perfect jump shot. As a scorer, he’s in the 95th percentile in Off-Ball Scoring and the 95th percentile in Efficient 3PT Shooting, along with being in the 70+ percentiles for Steal and Block numbers. Despite all the upside, he could really benefit from more consistency on both ends of the court, along with improving his finishing in traffic. Nevertheless, Mathurin passes the eye test, and for that reason he’s higher than most.
7. Jaden Ivey
Height: 6’4 | Draft Age: 20.4
Ivey plays like he was shot out of a cannon. He has burst you rarely see at the college level, drawing a lot of comparisons to Ja Morant. The insane acceleration with the ball is evidenced by some of ShotQuality’s more nuanced stats: 83rd percentile in Frequency Creating his Own Shot, 78th percentile in Transition Efficiency, 73rd percentile in Self Creation Efficiency, and 69th percentile in Rim-Attacking Efficiency. The shooting numbers have also improved, going from the 8th percentile last season in 3-Point Efficiency to the 65th percentile this season. There are real concerns to be had about his defense, and his shot mechanics need some work. Even so, Ivey is a can’t miss prospect and can very easily be a top 5 pick.
8. Jonathan Davis
Height: 6’4 | Draft Age: 19.9
Jonathan Davis is one of the guys who has easily played his way onto NBA Draft radars this season after an incredible start to the season in which he is the current Player of the Year favorite. The sophomore has routinely flashed two-way potential, being able to lock up opposing wings while carrying the scoring load for a Wisconsin team that has surpassed all expectations. Davis is in the mold of DeMar DeRozan as a midrange specialist, settling in at the 92nd percentile in Long Midrange Jumpers. Now, even with his explosive scoring performance, ShotQuality algorithm doesn’t love his aptitude for inefficient midrange jumpers coupled with pedestrian rim & 3 numbers. With this in mind, it is important to separate from the numbers with some prospects, and Davis’ blend of self-creation and defensive tenacity makes him an obvious top 10 pick.
9. Jalen Duren
Height: 6’10 | Draft Age: 18.6
Duren might be the prospect who benefits most from the weaker class. Despite not showing many strengths on a terrible team context at Memphis, Duren is a clear lottery prospect with tremendous athleticism and an NBA ready body at the young age of 18. At 6’10, he is a tenacious rebounder and defensive presence, landing in the 93rd percentile in Offensive Rebounding and the 92nd percentile in Defensive Rebounding, along with the 99th percentile in Blocks. Duren’s offensive polish and IQ has left a lot to be desired, but I’ll chalk that up to inexperience and a bad situation with Memphis. To me, Duren has a lot of similarities to Willie Cauley-Stein as a defensive-minded, switchable 5-man, with the potential to be more dynamic as a rim runner.
10. TyTy Washington
Height: 6’4 | Draft Age: 20.6
TyTy is the annual 1st round pick for Coach Calipari at Kentucky. At 6’3, the combo guard is a strong player with no real holes in his game. He shoots, passes, and defends at a high level and boasts a good knowledge of the game as well. Tyty is in the 96th percentile in Efficient Midrange, the 95th percentile in Passing, and the 92nd percentile in Steals. With this being said, ShotQuality numbers are not super kind to his game. The numbers paint the picture of an efficient midrange shooter (4th percentile in High Frequency Midrange) who can’t get to the rim (33rd percentile in Rim Efficiency and the 3rd percentile in Low Free Throw Rate). Moreover, he is an older freshman (older than sophomores Ivey, Mathurin, and Davis) who is by no means an elite athlete. With everything being said, Tyty really passes the eye test and knows how to play, and I don’t think his game necessarily lends itself to scoring well with some of these metrics.
11. Keegan Murray
Height: 6’8 | Draft Age: 21.8
Keegan Murray, along with Johnny Davis, has improved his draft stock the most so far this season. Murray has exceeded all expectations following his freshman season and has fully followed in Luka Garza’s POY footsteps as a top tier scorer and rebounder. Keegan is wildly efficient according to the ShotQuality rankings: 99th percentile in Transition Efficiency, 98th percentile in Self Creation Efficiency, the 97th percentile in Post-Up efficiency, and the 97th percentile in Rim Efficiency. His defense has also been stout, currently standing in the 99th percentile in Blocks and the 92nd percentile in Steals. There aren’t too many downsides with his game; he’s got the size + skillset of a modern 4, he can run the floor, defend at a high level, and looks good shooting the three. Murray’s pretty old for a sophomore, but that shouldn’t deter NBA teams from taking him in the lottery.
12. Ochai Agbaji
Height: 6’6 | Draft Age: 22.1
Agbaji is this year’s older wing lottery prospect on a blue blood team a la Chris Duarte and Cameron Johnson. Agbaji has grown into a Player of the Year Candidate for Bill Self at Kansas, as the senior is a knockdown shooter and stout defender with a penchant for showing up when it matters. Ochai sits in the 98th percentile of Spacing/Gravity, the 90th percentile in 3-point Efficiency, and the 87th percentile in Overall Efficiency. He projects as a role player who excels as a spot-up shooter and a strong guard/wing defender capable of defending the other team’s best wing (although he is definitely not a lockdown PoA defender). With his experience standing out in a weak class, Agbaji will be able to help every single NBA team immediately, and for that reason he’s a lottery prospect.
13. Caleb Houstan
Height: 6’8 | Draft Age: 19.4
Admittedly, Houstan has been somewhat of a disappointment at Michigan. He’s not playing poorly by any means, but Michigan has fallen short of expectations and the 6’8 wing’s game hasn’t been as impressive as his Canadian U19 FIBA World Cup stretch. Houstan has struggled some at the rim, with both Rim Frequency and Rim Efficiency falling below the 40th percentile, and plays sort of rigid and uptight. Still, there is a lot of potential in a long wing who can shoot and defend at a high level. Generally, NBA teams trust good high school recruits who may have had a less than stellar freshman season, and for that reason, this ShotQuality Board will follow suit.
14. Jeremy Sochan
Height: 6’9 | Draft Age: 19.0
Sochan is a long, versatile, coordinated athlete who can play multiple positions. The freshman has wowed with his ability to guard multiple positions along with his scoring flashes. The ShotQuality numbers really convey Sochan’s all-around game: 86th percentile of 3-point Efficiency, 86th percentile in Total Rebounding, 90th percentile in Blocks, 82nd percentile in Steals, and 77th percentile in Passing. The FT numbers are absolutely cause for concern (51%) but even so, there are real avenues to him becoming both a lockdown defender and a bonafide secondary creator.
15. Jaden Hardy
Height: 6’4 | Draft Age: 19.9
Hardy, the number 2 prospect in the class of 2021, might be the single best isolation scorer in this draft. The G-League Ignite guard has showcased his isolation flair and ball screen wizardry on occasion but never in a consistent fashion. The flashes he’s shown are those of a top-3 pick; splitting a ball screen and finishing with an acrobatic layup, nailing step-back threes, and breaking down a guard off the dribble. Unfortunately, these flashes are few and far between. Hardy is averaging 17.7 points a game but he’s shooting 35.1% from the field and 26.9% from 3. The defense has been better than expected, but the offense has been way worse than expected. He’s shown all the ability but none of the consistency.
16. Walker Kessler
Height: 7’1 | Draft Age: 20.8
Walker Kessler, the massive transfer from North Carolina, has been a revelation for Bruce Pearl and Auburn this season. Kessler, with the help of Jabari Smith, has revolutionized an Auburn defense and propelled them to the number 1 team in the country with incredible shot-blocking and a good ability to defend in space. He’s been one of the most productive players in the country so far, sitting at the 100th percentile (!!!) in both Blocks and Rolling to the Basket. Generally in the modern NBA, wings are more important than bigs, but Kessler’s unique productivity in college and shot-blocking acumen makes him a definitive 1st round pick in a weak class.
17. Mark Williams
Height: 7’1 | Draft Age: 20.4
Williams has had a really strong sophomore campaign and is drawing comparisons to Clint Capela as a rim runner & defensive anchor. Just like Walker Kessler, Williams also is in the 100th percentile of Blocks, along with the 98th percentile in Off-Ball Scoring, 98th percentile of Overall Efficiency, and the 95th percentile of Rim Efficiency. Whereas Kessler is more of a defensive presence than an offensive one, Williams’ lob radius and rim-running gravity give him more offensive consistency. The advanced stats for Williams aren’t as kind as they are to Kessler, and Kessler has flashed the tiniest bit of a perimeter shot, which is why I’ll give him the slight edge over Williams. However, I would not at all be shocked if Williams is a 10+ year NBA player.
18. Patrick Baldwin Jr.
Height: 6’9 | Draft Age: 19.7
Patrick Baldwin Jr. is one of the more enigmatic prospects in this year’s class. The 6’9 forward was the #5 prospect in ESPN’s Top 100 recruiting rankings, but chose to stay home and play for his dad at UW-Milwaukee, and his draft stock has plummeted because of it. Despite playing against generally low-major players, Baldwin is relied upon to create for himself, which is not really his game. He’s in the 29th percentile of 3-point Efficiency and the 10th percentile in Off-Ball Scoring despite coming in with the reputation of a knockdown catch and shoot shooter. Generally, I avoid the saying “X player will benefit greatly from NBA spacing” because it holds true for every player, but I don’t think anyone more than Baldwin Jr. The jumper looks great, and if he got the option to play fully as a spot-up shooter, Baldwin could become the player everyone was hoping for.
19. Tari Eason
Height: 6’8 | Draft Age: 21.0
In the same mold as Kessler, Tari Eason is another transfer who has shown a ton more to his game since leaving his original school. The forward has progressed leaps and bounds and displays an array of skills on both ends of the court. He’s another forward who can shoot (94th percentile in Self Creation Efficiency), finish (76th percentile in Rim Efficiency), pass (55th percentile in Passing), defend (99th percentile in Steals), rebound (82nd percentile in Rebounding), and read the floor. Eason should work on his jumper after the season to really maximize his NBA interest, but even without it, his tenacity and IQ make him appealing. He reminds me of Al-Farouq Aminu.
20. Nikola Jovic
Height: 6’10 | Draft Age: 19.0
Jovic is likely the best international prospect in this class, and it has nothing to do with the fact his name is one letter off NBA MVP Nikola Jokic. Jovic is a skilled 6’10 wing who currently plays for Mega Mozzart in the Adriatic League, which has produced NBA players such as Dario Saric, Ante Zizic, Dzanan Musa, Goga Bitadze, and Jokic himself. Jovic, currently averaging an 11/4/3, boasts a high basketball IQ, a good-looking shooting stroke, and great positional size. Considering his age, he is ahead of the developmental curve to be playing so much in the Adriatic League that is generally tough on young players. There are a lot of worries about how the inconsistent shooting and defensive abilities will play out in the NBA, but Jovic’s skillset should be worth taking a gamble on.
21. Ismael Kamagate
Height: 6’11 | Draft Age: 21.4
Even though Jovic may currently be higher, Ismael Kamagate might be my favorite international prospect. Kamagate is a bouncy 6’11 French big man who can defend the rim, defend in space, finish lobs, and even find open teammates well. Currently playing for Paris in the French A League, Kamagate is averaging almost 11 points and 5.5 rebounds per contest. He moves really well on the perimeter for his size and has the tools to be an elite defender. Kamagate is very much a role player for his squad currently and hasn’t flashed as much as some of the other international players, but the intersection of coordination and athleticism at his size is drawing a lot of NBA interest.
22. Kendall Brown
Height: 6’8 | Draft Age: 19.0
Kendall Brown can simply be described as a good basketball player. Brown is a well-rounded athletic wing who has no real flaws in his game. He has demonstrated shooting touch, passing acumen, and defensive chops in his freshman year at Baylor. Brown’s game is more of an efficient off-ball role player at this stage, and the ShotQuality numbers back that up: 99th percentile in Off-Ball Scoring, 98th percentile in Transition, and the 97th percentile in Cutting. Even though he is not a frequent shooter (24th percentile in 3-point Frequency), he is an efficient one (68th percentile in 3-point Efficiency), and the other supplementary aspects of his game are positives. Even with all of these positive numbers, the criticism with Brown is that he doesn’t affect the game enough. The system at Baylor is not conducive to offensive freedom like Auburn’s is, but even so, Brown could benefit greatly from a deep March run.
23. Max Christie
Height: 6’6 | Draft Age: 19.2
Christie is reminiscent of another previous Michigan State shooting guard in Gary Harris. Christie is a freshman who can shoot the rock (96th percentile in Free Throw Shooting, 85th percentile in 3-point Shooting, 83rd percentile in Midrange Shooting) and defend competently (86th percentile in Blocks as a guard, and is adept at mirroring the offensive player’s footwork). Christie is a lackluster athlete however, and that manifests itself in poor finishing at the basket. Overall, in a weak class, Christie can still be a first round pick.
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24. Dyson Daniels
Height: 6’6 | Draft Age: 19.2
The G-League Ignite guard from down under is hoping to follow in the footsteps of current Thunder guard Josh Giddey and represent Australia in the NBA. The 6’6 combo guard has emerged as a legitimate NBA prospect for Ignite. Daniels defends with vigor and uses his length and foot speed to contain opposing ball handlers as he leads the Ignite team with 1.9 steals per game. The offensive game is not fully developed yet, nor are the numbers kind to him on this side of the floor. Still, Daniels compares favorably to Malcolm Brogdon in a lot of ways, pending the 3-point shot developing. He’s got a lot of tools and affects the game positively at a young age, but shooting is a legitimate swing skill.
25. Trevor Keels
Height: 6’5 | Draft Age: 18.8
Keels is a running back playing shooting guard. He’s a young, physical guard who can shoot the 3, pressure the basket, and defend at a high level. However, this is the first time where ShotQuality metrics vastly contradict this impression I have of him. The numbers show a chucker (73rd percentile in 3-point Frequency while being 25th percentile in 3-point Efficiency) who also struggles drawing fouls (19th percentile in Free Throw Rate). Personally, I see a big, young guard with an NBA-ready body who is confident in his jumper and can play at a high level. I like the intersection of youth and physicality and can see him improving his defense at the NBA level similar to Lu Dort.
26. Harrison Ingram
Height: 6’7 | Draft Age: 19.5
Harrison Ingram is a high IQ forward prospect from Stanford who doesn’t make too many mistakes. The big-bodied freshman from Stanford lets the game come to him and rarely plays sped up or outside of his comfort zone. Ingram’s a jack of all trades, master of none type player; he is a good rebounder (83rd+ percentile in both Offensive Rebounding and Defensive Rebounding), passer (93rd percentile in Passing), and off-ball player (82nd percentile in Spacing/Gravity and 75th percentile in Catch & Shoot 3s). However, I wouldn’t classify any of those really as “strengths.” Ingram’s lack of foot speed really limits his skillset/ceiling, and he has a penchant for holding onto the ball to try to make something happen. He’s got an NBA ready body, but could benefit from an NBA team that really emphasizes his development.
27. Isiaih Mosley
Height: 6’5 | Draft Age: 22.1
Mosley is likely the best isolation scorer in this draft, and also one of the most fun. Mosley has the deepest bag in college basketball, with a variety of dribble moves, ball fakes, and space creation abilities to simply put the ball in the basket. Somehow, he is in the 99th percentile in Catch & Shoot 3s and the 98th percentile in Off Dribble 3s, along with the 88th percentile in Midrange Scoring. Simply put, his scoring volume and efficiency is unparalleled by any prospect in recent memory. Unfortunately, besides scoring, Mosley doesn’t provide a ton of value, and has a propensity to spend the entire offensive possession with the ball in his hands, alienating his teammates. Admittedly, there is a lot not to like about Mosley’s game, but the scoring acumen is ridiculous enough to warrant first round interest.
28. Jean Montero
Height: 6’2 | Draft Age: 18.9
For those unaware, Jean Montero is a true point guard who made the choice to play for the new Overtime Elite team rather than continuing to play for Gran Canaria B in the Spanish 3rd league. He rose to prominence as a potential NBA guy with an MVP performance in the Basketball Without Borders camp in 2019 despite being a year younger than most other players. Honestly, I’ve barely seen Montero play for the Overtime Elite team, as they have been a trainwreck so far, playing against high school teams with no fanfare. Montero could be losing a key developmental year in his prime, which is worrying. Now, even though we haven’t seen much from Montero, he is still a first rounder to me because of how weak this class is; a small PG prospect is a first rounder because he’s a complete question mark.
29. EJ Liddell
Height: 6’6 | Draft Age: 21.4
Liddell being a potential first round pick is a testament to how weak this class is. The 6’6 junior is a small 4 with limited horizontal athleticism (45th percentile in Steals) who is a slightly above average shooter (60th percentile in Spacing/Gravity). However, there is no debate that Liddell is a highly productive college player who makes plays happen. He is a tremendous rebounder (91st percentile in Total Rebounding) and shot blocker (99th percentile in Blocks) who has made significant strides as a scorer (82nd percentile in Rim Efficiency and the 80th percentile in 3-point Efficiency). Even though Liddell is an incredible college player, the NBA fit remains dicey. Seeing Jae’Sean Tate excel for the Rockets gives me faith Liddell has a chance.
30. Bryce McGowens
Height: 6’7 | Draft Age: 19.0
McGowens is what I like to call a theoretical player. The hyped freshman at Nebraska checks off a ton of the boxes for an NBA wing: long frame, shooting confidence, and crazy athleticism. However, his current basketball talents are not anywhere close to what he could be. The numbers are below average in almost every regard (23rd percentile in 3-point Shooting, 32nd percentile in Off-Ball Scoring) and Nebraska is winless in conference play. The defense looks like it might be able to get there, but it’s hard when Nebraska’s system does him zero favors. McGowens has all the tools to become an above average NBA player, but I’m wary of his game in a vacuum. Still, he’s a first round pick.
Next Up: Taran Armstrong, Christian Braun, Justin Lewis, Wendell Moore, MarJon Beauchamp, Blake Wesley, Kennedy Chandler, Isaiah Mobley, Alondes Williams, Orlando Robinson, Julian Champagnie
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