Luck is one of the oddest phenomenons in sports. Everyone knows it affects the game, but there hasn’t been an accurate way of quantifying it. In theory, luck should always be equal for both teams. There is no superstitious or godly force impacting one team’s luck more than another, it just naturally fluctuates. When a team is better than their record indicates, they are considered unlucky, and conversely, when a team is worse than their record shows, the team is lucky. All statistics so far have failed to depict this trend correctly. The closest we have gotten has been looking at point totals throughout the season and deriving records based on those score differentials–– luck%. The deficiency with this tactic is obvious because the score is lucky in itself. There could be a game where a 25% three point shooter nails all eight of his three pointers, and their team wins the game by 20 points. This is a lucky occurrence because the odds are that the player won’t hit that many three pointers on a consistent basis, but the luck% stat fails to value this. Instead, the statistic considers this team as better than their record indicates because they won by a large margin ignoring the ShotQuality value accrued throughout each game.
The “Record Luck” stat tracks every single shot taken and calculates the ShotQuality value associated with that attempt. It gives an objective look into what shots should go in, and what shouldn’t. Giving an accurate insight into which teams are the most lucky and least lucky throughout the season.
Team’s with high positive values in Record Luck are due for positive regression and have been unlucky to this point. You want to be in this boat! In the 2019-2020 season, these were the teams that were expected to win more games based on the shots they took and their opponents attempted.
On the other hand, these teams with negative Record Luck are due for negative regression. They are not as good as their record indicates, and shouldn’t be complacent at any point during the season.
I’ll be honest this is a hard way to look at sports. This theoretical perspective is challenging to conceptualize, but basketball has so many fortuitous and unlucky occurrences that it becomes unjustifiable to judge a team based on their actual record. I hope coaches will begin to use Record Luck as an autopsy tool to evaluate their team’s true ability.