Near the end of the third quarter in a pivotal Game 3 Thursday night, the Memphis Grizzlies seemed to be out for the count. After clawing back from a 26-point deficit in the second quarter to cut into the lead before halftime, the Timberwolves re-extended their lead to 25 points with just about fifteen minutes of basketball remaining.
However, while the scoreboard was ugly, Memphis’s process was sound. All game, they had created clean looks and good shots while playing decent defense on the road in Minnesota. At the end of three quarters, the Grizzlies trailed 83-67 — but the ShotQuality score, calculating how each team would be performing on an average shooting night, evaluated the game as 81-80 in Memphis’s favor.
While the model predicted a regression to the mean for each team entering the fourth quarter, the extent of the Grizzlies’ roaring comeback was almost unprecedented. Memphis dominated the quality of shots in the final period, winning the ShotQuality score 29-13. But even that paled in comparison to the actual result: the Timberwolves scored just 12 points to Memphis’s 37.
The Game 3 comeback was just the latest development in a series where the Grizzlies have dominated the quality of shots taken. In each game of the series so far, Memphis has won the ShotQuality score by at least fifteen points. Using ShotQuality game win percentages to simulate their first-round series 1,000 times, Memphis is projected to have a 3-0 series lead based on the quality of shots taken over 70 percent of the time; they’ve gotten unlucky in terms of win-loss record, and still have home-court advantage and a 2-1 lead.
The Grizzlies have done this while being one of the unluckier teams in the postseason. On offense, they’re underperforming their expected score by about 2 points per game; on defense, the Timberwolves are scoring approximately 6 points more than expected per game.
The other three teams in the bottom quarter of the league for playoff luck rating are a combined 1-5 as of Thursday. The Grizzlies, because they’ve been so dominant, remain 2-1.
The Grizzles’ consistent dominance through the first three games of their playoff series is anomalous, even in comparison to other squads that have hit the ground running in the postseason. The Warriors and 76ers, who both hold 3-0 series leads, have been projected to win their postseason games around 75% of the time; the Grizzlies, on the other hand, have an expected win percentage of 90.7%
In the regular season, despite finishing with the second-best record in the NBA, the Grizzlies ranked just ninth in Adjusted Shot Quality. They ranked in the bottom third of the NBA in shot selection, spacing, and shot-making. However, in the postseason, they’ve taken a leap on both ends of the floor.
Memphis’s dominance ultimately hinges on their defense. With DPOY-level anchor Jaren Jackson Jr. surrounded by plus defenders like Dillon Brooks and Brandon Clarke, they force challenging shots in a way few other defenses are capable of.
Game 3 was perhaps their magnum opus so far in the postseason on that end of the floor. Memphis held the Timberwolves to just 0.98 expected points per possession, which would’ve ranked in the third percentile for the season. In the halfcourt, that number plummeted to an even stingier 0.87 points per possession — Minnesota was held to shot qualities that would’ve ranked in the bottom five of the NBA from every single area of the court (rim, midrange, and three).
At the same time, the Grizzles continue to create efficient shots on the offensive end. Desmond Bane is an elite spacer and off-ball scorer who’s taken high-quality shots all season long, and this series has been no different — he’s recorded 30 good possessions and just 10 bad possessions, per ShotQuality data.
Brandon Clarke has been similarly effective all series long, recording 23 good possessions to just 4 bad possessions. At the heart of it all is offensive engine Ja Morant, who’s created an average of 21 passing points per game while also averaging 25 expected points scored per game.
It remains to be seen how far this Memphis squad can go in their first year as a serious contender (no, their 4-1 loss to Utah as an 8-seed last season doesn’t count). If they can take down the Timberwolves, the Warriors — who have looked as good as any team in basketball since the returns of Steph Curry and Draymond Green — will likely await them in the conference semifinals. However, if the Grizzlies continue to dominate the quality of shots taken as thoroughly as they have in the first round, the sky is the limit.
As the Suns and Devin Booker proved over the past two seasons, the ascension from middle-of-the-pack to elite can be much quicker than expected. Perhaps Ja Morant and the Grizzlies are already there.