By Ben Wieland
The 2022 NBA Draft is just around the corner, and especially for college prospects ShotQuality’s data offers a unique look at this incoming crop of pro prospects. This mock draft projects who each team should select with their pick, in the order that the draft currently sits as of Tuesday, June 21.
These rankings are mainly predicated on ShotQuality data from each player’s college season, though outside factors were taken into account for the mock such as age and physical attributes like combine testing numbers. This mock draft isn’t any sort of official company line on these prospects; instead, it’s my own rankings formulated with an outsize amount of weight given to players who perform well according to ShotQuality data.
Since ShotQuality data is only available for players who played college basketball last season, a few players commonly expected to go in the first round but who spent last season internationally, on the G-League Ignite team, or on a college team’s bench were left out of these rankings because the data could not be used to evaluate them.
Without this caveat, I would have included Shaedon Sharpe and Dyson Daniels in the lottery and MarJon Beauchamp and Ousmane Dieng in the back half of the first round — I think Daniels and Sharpe will go to the Wizards and Thunder, respectively, and see Dieng in the 15-18 range with Beauchamp in the 20-24 range. Keep this in mind while reading the mock draft — it’s not drawn from a totally complete pool of draft entrants, but instead from just those players for whom ShotQuality data is available.
1. Orlando Magic – Jabari Smith, Auburn
The Magic use their first overall pick to select one of the best shooting prospects in recent history. The 6’10 forward from Auburn ranked in the 98th percentile in three-point efficiency last season and the 95th percentile in spacing. Orlando can’t go wrong with any of the three bigs at the top of this year’s class, but Smith’s size and shooting makes him a perfect fit in the modern NBA. From day one, he’ll be an exceptional shooter and solid defender, and if he can develop as an on-ball scorer and playmaker, Smith could be that elite big wing that NBA teams desperately crave.
2. Oklahoma City Thunder – Chet Holmgren, Gonzaga
There’s a chance that five years from now everyone looks back at the 2022 draft and wonders why Chet Holmgren wasn’t a no-brainer for the number one pick. He’s truly a unicorn on both ends of the floor: Chet ranked in the 99th percentile for blocks, 96th percentile in rim efficiency, and 93rd percentile in three-point efficiency last season. He’s also seven feet tall, flashed ball-handling ability, and was the consensus #1 recruit coming out of high school. The only concern is his frame and durability, which is where landing in Oklahoma City should help. Chet will have the time to develop and bulk up without the pressure of playing for a contender, and have the opportunity to realize his full potential as a unique two-way prospect.
3. Houston Rockets – Paolo Banchero, Duke
Banchero slots in nicely as a frontcourt piece for the Rockets. While his jump shot still has some room to improve in terms of three-point range and he struggled around the rim a bit more than expected, Banchero finished long midrange jumpers at 96th-percentile ShotQuality efficiency last year. What makes Banchero special, though, is his passing ability at 6’10”. He ranked in the 92nd percentile as a passer last season, above most bigs in college basketball. He slots in nicely on a Houston squad already loaded with potent scorers like Jalen Green and Kevin Porter Jr.
4. Sacramento Kings – Jaden Ivey, Purdue
The Ivey fit in Sacramento is a bit dicey alongside De’Aaron Fox and last year’s top pick Davion Mitchell. However, the electrifying Purdue guard’s upside is simply too much to pass up for a team that should be star hunting wherever possible. He ranked in the 75th percentile in spacing & gravity last season according to ShotQuality data — a product of his three-point range and elite speed cutting to the basket. Playing alongside Domantas Sabonis might actually benefit Ivey, as the offense can run through the big man while Ivey develops as a secondary option and slowly eases into a primary ball handler role.
5. Detroit Pistons – Keegan Murray, Iowa
Keegan Murray is perhaps the closest thing to a known quantity in this draft class — and as known quantities go, Murray is an extremely talented one. His ShotQuality grades this year were almost unparalleled in college basketball: 98th percentile overall efficiency, 97th percentile efficiency on drives, and 95th percentile efficiency from three. There’s no better three-level scorer in the draft class than Murray, and slotting in a bucket getter next to Cade Cunningham will help Detroit’s #1 pick out as well.
6. Indiana Pacers – A.J. Griffin, Duke
Last season, A.J. Griffin had one of the best three-point shooting seasons for a freshman ever. While his shot’s wide base looks awkward, it goes in: Griffin ranked in the 99th percentile in three-point shooting while gunning off the dribble and off the catch, and finished in the 98th percentile in spacing and gravity. Questions about Griffin’s athleticism and injury history have him dropping in some mock drafts, but here, the Pacers snag a wing who — as long as he can avoid nagging leg injuries — has massive upside potential and is already an elite jump shooter.
7. Portland Trail Blazers – Ben Mathurin, Arizona
If the Trail Blazers don’t move out of this pick to grab an established wing (Jerami Grant, anyone?) then Mathurin is the best they can do in this year’s draft. Mathurin’s game is tailor-made to fit alongside Damian Lillard: he ranked in the 95th percentile in off-ball scoring efficiency, as well as the 96th percentile in three-point efficiency and 94th percentile in spacing/gravity. If the handle comes along, Mathurin has potential to grow, but he’s already capable of shoring up Portland’s rotation on the wing.
8. New Orleans Pelicans – Jeremy Sochan, Baylor
A versatile defensive forward like Sochan is exactly what the Pelicans need to add to their core, especially if Zion Williamson returns and continues to be the elite offense, spotty defense player he was two years ago. Sochan graded out extremely high in almost every defensive metric, and he’s capable as a connective piece on offense as well, earning a 75th percentile passing grade this season. If he can defend at a high level in the NBA, it’ll buy Sochan some time to grow as a scorer — and he won’t be needed to score too often alongside Zion and Brandon Ingram.
9. San Antonio Spurs – Tari Eason, LSU
Eason is one of the more polarizing players in this draft class, especially after rumors that he struggled in workouts. However, his raw production and physical tools vault him up the ShotQuality board. Eason finished the season in the 89th percentile for offensive efficiency, including the 99th percentile in transition efficiency. While advanced metrics were lower on him, Eason recorded more “impact plays” (steals and blocks) than just about anyone in college basketball. The Spurs take a flier on Eason’s upside here, confident that they can work out the kinks in Eason’s game — like his lack of passing ability, proclivity for turnovers, and gambling defensive style — once he’s in the organization.
10. Washington Wizards – Johnny Davis, Wisconsin
Davis faltered near the end of the college season as fatigue set in from his outsized offensive burden, but undeniably took a massive leap to become Wisconsin’s leading scorer last year. Davis thrived in the midrange, recording 91st-percentile efficiency on long midrange jump shots, while serving as a capable spacer (65th percentile) and decent finisher around the rim (58th percentile). Adding Davis makes a lot of sense for the Wizards: he can fit alongside Bradley Beal as an off-ball scorer, or become the lead guard if Beal is moved for future assets.
11. New York Knicks – Malaki Branham, Ohio State
Branham’s offensive game isn’t a hard sell. He’s a talented wing with a variety of moves in the midrange and who finished last season in the 97th percentile for three-point efficiency. The Knicks could stand to add another sure-thing deep threat to a roster full of iffy jump shooters. The concerns? Defense — Ohio State’s ShotQuality defensive rating was 10.5 points worse with Branham on the floor, which ranked in the 1st percentile — and finishing at the rim, where Branham ranked in the 16th percentile for efficiency. Hopefully, New York doesn’t need to ask too much from the Ohio State wing early in his career, and he can settle into a comfortable role.
12. Oklahoma City Thunder – TyTy Washington, Kentucky
TyTy Washington is the best college point guard in this draft class (at least as long as you consider Jaden Ivey a shooting guard). He struggled near the end of the season, mostly due to nagging injuries, but flashed elite passing ability. Washington graded out in the 94th percentile in passing during his freshman season at Kentucky, and put together some gems like a 17-assist masterpiece. The ShotQuality scoring grades are more middling, which is why TyTy drops so far down the board here, but he’s the best player available at 12 for the Thunder — fit with Josh Giddey and Shai-Gilgeous Alexander be damned.
13. Charlotte Hornets – Ochai Agbaji, Kansas
The Hornets need to draft a big, but with Mark Williams and Jalen Duren both still on the board here and another pick in two selections, there’s no need for urgency on that front. Instead, they add Agbaji, a college veteran and national champion who should be immediately ready to play at the NBA level. Agbaji will play well off the ball in lineups with LaMelo Ball, coming off a season where he put up 81st-percentile overall efficiency and 90th-percentile spacing and gravity. Charlotte needs more solid players on the perimeter, and they snatch one up here.
14. Cleveland Cavaliers – Kendall Brown, Baylor
Brown rounds out the lottery here, mostly thanks to his incredible finishing ability. At Baylor last season, he was an electric athlete, finishing in the 94th percentile in transition efficiency and the 86th percentile in overall rim efficiency, rarefied air usually reserved for lumbering centers. While there’s still plenty of room for growth in his game, his upside is intriguing — especially for a Cavs team that seems to love big wings.
15. Charlotte Hornets – Jalen Duren, Memphis
The Hornets pick up the best big man in the draft class to fill a major need they have at center. Duren wasn’t exceptional for a Memphis squad that was a bit of a tire fire last season, but he does everything Charlotte needs with upside that exceeds every big in the class. Duren ranked in the 99th percentile for blocked shots and 92nd percentile in offensive rebounding, though his 23rd-percentile post-up efficiency leaves room for improvement. Duren should be plug-and-play from day one as a frontcourt partner for LaMelo Ball.
16. Atlanta Hawks – Christian Braun, Kansas
In Braun, the Hawks snag up a wing who plays with some physicality, can shoot the ball, and earned a championship pedigree last season at Kansas. Last season, Braun punched above his weight in terms of rebounding and impact defensive plays. He also recorded 77th-percentile three-point efficiency and got to the rim frequently, though he struggled to finish there (42nd percentile rim efficiency). He’s one of the best plug-and-play prospects in the draft, and his relative lack of ballhandling ability is mitigated by Atlanta’s heliocentric scheme centered around Trae Young.
17. Houston Rockets – Jalen Williams, Santa Clara
A late riser in the draft process, Williams could fit well in Houston as a complementary piece to their young core. Williams is a lanky ball-handling wing without many significant weaknesses, especially if the growth he showed as a shooter (67th-percentile spacing last year) persists. He was efficient from everywhere on the floor and plays a very smart brand of basketball.
18. Chicago Bulls – Mark Williams, Duke
There’s no reason for the Bulls not to take a shot at arguably the best defensive big man in this year’s draft class. Mark Williams was elite at covering up for his teammates’ mistakes defensively at Duke and wasn’t too shabby offensively either — he ranked in the 99th percentile in overall efficiency and the 96th percentile in rim efficiency. His ridiculous length also projects well to the next level. Chicago needs a frontcourt defender, and Williams is their best bet.
19. Minnesota Timberwolves – Dalen Terry, Arizona
Dalen Terry’s game as a downhill playmaking guard complements centerpieces Anthony Edwards and Karl-Anthony Towns exceptionally well. There were fewer college basketball players better at creating for others than Terry at Arizona last year, where he ranked in the 95th percentile as a passer. The shot is a concern, but he still ranked in the 62nd percentile for three-point efficiency.
20. San Antonio Spurs – Ryan Rollins, Toledo
Rollins is another guard who plays strong around the rim: he ranked in the 68th percentile in rim efficiency at Toledo last season. He drew plenty of attention as an offensive threat, ranking in the 69th percentile in spacing/gravity created, and put up highly rated (96th percentile) playmaking ability despite often looking to create his own shot. The Spurs can mold him into an excellent perimeter player.
21. Denver Nuggets – Walker Kessler, Auburn
The college defensive player of the year’s reputation isn’t what it was earlier this season, as some of his flaws (especially on that end) were exposed as the year went on. Denver is an excellent landing spot for the Auburn big man, as they already run a drop pick-and-roll coverage with Nikola Jokic so it’ll be easier to get Kessler onto the floor. And the big did dominate around the basket all year: he ranked in the 99th percentile in blocks and the 96th percentile in rim efficiency. It’s a lot of draft capital to spend on a backup center, but Kessler is a perfect fit in the Nuggets’ system.
22. Memphis Grizzlies – Jake LaRavia
Jake LaRavia is a great fit for the current NBA: he has some size, can guard multiple positions, and scores in multiple ways. The Wake Forest product ranked in the 90th percentile in three-point efficiency and the 80th percentile in rim efficiency — although perhaps even more appealing to the Grizzlies is his 92nd-percentile efficiency as an off-ball scorer. It would not be a surprise to see one of the best front offices in the league snag LaRavia in the back half of the first round.
23. Philadelphia 76ers – E.J. Liddell, Ohio State
Liddell is a do-it-all power forward who makes up for his lack of size with competence in every area of the game. This past season, he expanded his range beyond the three-point arc to the tune of 76th-percentile efficiency. Adding that jump shot to the arsenal of a player who also ranked in the 86th percentile for efficiency on his drives to the basket could make for a threatening combo in the pros, and the Sixers desperately need depth all around their roster.
24. Milwaukee Bucks – Trevor Keels, Duke
The Bucks have been searching for a second defensive-minded guard on their roster besides the incredible Jrue Holiday — see: their flyer on Jevon Carter this year — and in this mock, they invest some draft capital into the spot. Keels struggled from three, but still ranked in the 74th percentile as a spacer, and posted elite defensive metrics.
25. San Antonio Spurs – Bryce McGowens, Nebraska
McGowens flashed potential as a scorer in his first season as a Husker, and his size and playmaking ability (75th-percentile passing) make him an interesting upside shot. However, the three-pointer is a major issue: he ranked in just the 21st percentile in efficiency from beyond the arc. The Spurs have the leeway to put their faith in Chip Engelland (and McGowens’s already-solid free-throw shooting numbers and jump shot form) and take.a swing on McGowens.
26. Houston Rockets – Patrick Baldwin Jr, Milwaukee
This selection by the Rockets is purely an upside swing. A top recruit out of high school, Baldwin struggled massively in his only year of college basketball. While he did rank in the 87th percentile in efficiency at the rim, Baldwin — touted as a jump shooter — finished in just the 11th percentile in three-point efficiency. If any team can afford to take a flier on the former top prospect, though, it’s Houston.
27. Miami Heat – Max Christie, Michigan State
Christie’s season at Michigan State was underwhelming, but the Heat can afford to bet on a high-motor player who, if he pans out, will be able to stay on the court in the postseason more reliably than their current options at his position. Christie really needs to bulk up — he finished in just the 13th percentile in rim efficiency last season — but his above-average three-point efficiency and passing numbers offer room for optimism.
28. Golden State Warriors – Josh Minott, Memphis
Josh Minott is a hyperathletic forward with above-average passing, ball-handling, defensive skills, and finishing ability around the rim. His only major flaw is his total lack of a reliable jump shot (he ranked in the 11th percentile for efficiency on his limited catch-and-shoot three-point attempts last season). In Golden State, there are plenty of scorers to cover for that weakness, and Minott will be able to fill a defined role and play his frenetic brand of basketball.
29. Memphis Grizzlies – Wendell Moore, Duke
The Grizzles should be looking to add valuable players around the margins with this pick, and picking up Wendell Moore would give them another solid rotation piece while also adding insurance against a Tyus Jones departure this offseason. Moore ranked in the 97th percentile as a passer and the 73rd percentile in three point efficiency as a low-usage engine that helped Duke’s offense run smoothly last season, and will ideally fill the same role in the pros.
30. Denver Nuggets – Blake Wesley, Notre Dame
One year after hitting on Bones Hyland, the Nuggets return to the late-first-round guard well with their second selection. Wesley really flashed as a freshman at Notre Dame, displaying high-level control of the game (88th percentile passing) and recording 57th-percentile efficiency from three on a very challenging shot diet. He needs to bulk up and improve his finishing around the basket, but Wesley makes a lot of sense as a complementary guy in Denver.