Texas Southern is hosting Bethune Cookman at 9:00 pm eastern on ESPNU. Bethune is currently on a 3 game winning streak coming off a road win against Prairie View A&M while Texas Southern has dropped 2 consecutive games with a home loss to Florida A&M on Saturday.
The Pick: Bethune Cookman +7.5
These teams both rank similarly offensively, having an Adj SQ ranking of #329 for Bethune and #312 for Texas Southern out of 363 possible teams. Where Texas Southern has an edge is on the defensive end ranking at #168 while Bethune only ranks #329 per Adjusted ShotQuality Rankings. However, my reasoning for backing the Wildcats is the battle of the perimeter shot tonight.
Bethune excels at getting open looks from deep, ranking #1 in the country with an open three rate on 66% of their attempts from beyond the arc! While on the other end, Texas Southern ranks as one of the worst teams at converting 3 point attempts, only making 27% of shots from this variety. If Bethune can continue to get open looks and convert, they should be able to keep this game close
Next on the card is Weber St. hosting Northern Colorado. Don’t worry about changing the channel as we have another matchup on ESPNU tipping off after Texas Southern at 11:00 pm eastern. These teams faced off on December 29th where Weber St. won 81-72.
The Pick: Over 141.5
What caught my eye in this matchup is the efficiency of each team around the rim and from beyond the perimeter both offensively and defensively. ShotQuality calculates the efficiency of each team when attempting a shot at the rim or from 3 with their Rim & 3 SQPPP rankings. Weber St ranks #147 in Rim & 3 SQPPP on offensive while only ranking #285 on defense. Similarly, Northern Colorado ranks #135 un Rim & 3 SQPPP on offense while only ranking #301 on defense. This is important as shots at the rim and from deep are high value opportunities.
Additionally, both of these teams take advantage of opportunities at the charity stripe. Northern Colorado is converting free throw attempts at 75% and Weber St. is shooting an elite 78% from the line. As long as these teams remain efficient at the rim, from 3, and at the free throw line, I think they will go over the total. Stay up late with me to root this one home or start your Tuesday morning off right with a winning ticket!
About the Author
Max Hofmeyer is someone who eats, sleeps, and breathes college basketball. Like most gamblers, he doesn’t just watch the games for entertainment, he wants to make some money along the way. Max first became a subscriber of ShotQuality last year and posted his most profitable season yet. This season, with the help of ShotQuality, Max is 77-59-2 +12.1u on posted plays. Make sure to follow Max on Twitter!