Every day the ShotQuality Bets team will be choosing one of the plays from the Value Finder to share. These plays will be selected purely for the biggest games of the day, national TV games and the matchups that everyone wants to watch!
Today’s play is Duke +3.5!
The ShotQuality Bets Model is projecting the wrong team to be favored! Our expected score is Miami 69.9 – 74.3 Duke.
This means we have 7.9 points of value on this play!
If you are new to how the Value Finder operates, spread plays require at least 4 points of value to become a recommended play (totals require 5). While we always encourage shopping to find the best line, our model would recommend this all the way to a pick’em!
Premium Breakdown
Both of these ACC teams are offensively dominant. Miami ranks 21st in offense and 96th in defense in ShotQuality, Duke ranks 7th in offense and 64th in defense.
However, Duke’s defense is projected to see a pretty serious bit of positive regression. In the below graphic you can see that teams are shooting much better than expected against the Blue Devils. If Duke plays as expected, the defense could be much better than recent scores might show.
Miami also has been a bit fortunate according to ShotQuality. The SQ Bets Trend Finder shows Miami has gone 10-3 ATS in conference play but based on the expected game results, SQ would expect a 6-7 ATS record. This likely means you are paying a higher price on Miami due to their recent performance.
With Premium Data lining up with the Value Finder projections, we think this should be a solid value play and even a better game to watch for Monday night. Premium members can check out the Matchup Breakdown for this game to get even more insight!
Good Luck!