Welcome to the first ever ShotQuality Bets Weekly Primer! Going forward, this will be a weekly article where we recap the week in college hoops, see which teams were lucky/unlucky according to ShotQuality data, and identify some potential value spots in the week ahead. We might even give away some picks! Let’s get into it.
ShotQuality Bets Model Recap
It was another solid week for the ShotQuality Bets model. On 242 spread and total plays, the model went 129-113 (53.3%), good enough for 4.7 units. The model has been having its best season to date, hitting at a 54.3% rate and up 136.9 units. Our pick history is tracked publicly and can be accessed here. We’re in the thick of college basketball season and there’s a lot more money to be made. Model subscriptions can be purchased on the ShotQuality Bets Website.
Luckiest Teams ATS this Past Week
A lot of Power 6 teams benefited from some significant deviations from ShotQuality expected scores this week and covered games they shouldn’t have. Specifically, Rutgers, Mississippi State, and Louisville all went 2-0 ATS but were 0-2 ATS using ShotQuality results.
Let’s zoom in on Louisville, who drastically outperformed their ShotQuality numbers in ACC play this week.
On Wednesday, Louisville was fortunate to beat Georgia Tech and cover when our data expected them to fail to both win and cover. Next, the Cardinals were lucky to keep things close with Florida St. on Saturday in a game that they should have lost by 17 rather than 3. It was some much needed positive variance for a Louisville team that has underperformed their expected scores all season. We’ll see if the trend continues this week as they face Pittsburgh on Tuesday and Miami on Saturday.
Unluckiest Teams ATS this Past Week
On the flip side, many teams suffered from unfortunate variance and deserved to cover more this week using ShotQuality results. Washington State stands out as the unluckiest of the bunch in the Power 6.
The Cougars should have gone 2-0 ATS in their PAC-12 games this week but instead came up empty-handed, failing to cover in either matchup.
Against USC on Thursday, Washington State should have covered as 7-point underdogs but instead lost by 10 and failed to cover. In a Saturday matchup against #9 UCLA, the ShotQuality score expected the Cougars to keep it close enough to cover an 11.5 spread. Unfortunately, the actual results again deviated from what our data expected and the Cougars were blown out. Our numbers are still high on Washington State and view them as a top-50 team in the country. Things will hopefully turn around for the Cougars this coming week as they face Washington on Saturday.
ShotQuality Bets Lookahead Game
On Wednesday, Florida will travel to Tuscaloosa to face Alabama in an SEC matchup. Our model likes the Gators to keep it close with a projected spread of Alabama -3.1.
While official betting lines are not yet released, KenPom has this projected as Alabama -11, so it’s likely that our models end up having a play on Florida. Keep an eye out for that line and subscribe to ShotQuality Bets for the official play and all of this week’s bets for just $19.95.
Best of luck this week and we’ll see you next Monday to break down all of the week’s action!
About the Author
Daniel Galper is a sophomore student at the University of Michigan studying Data Analytics and Statistics. He currently works for ShotQuality as Data Science Intern and creates data visualization content. Using both the ShotQuality Bets Model and his own models, Daniel has beaten the college basketball market over a large sample size. In his free time, Daniel likes to play FIFA, paddleboard, and watch basketball. Follow Daniel on Twitter!