For our first Max-a-Million picks on Monday we were able to post a 2-0 day! I’m looking to keep that going, starting with a pair of Big 12 teams facing off in Morgantown in tonight’s premiere matchup. Let’s get into it…
The Pick: West Virginia -3.5
West Virginia comes into this matchup currently unranked hosting the #11 ranked Cyclones on ESPN2 at 7:00 pm eastern.
The first thing that stood out to me in this matchup is that an unranked team is favored against a ranked team. After doing a deeper dive into this one, I really like the Mountaineers in this spot at home. The biggest reasoning for backing West Virginia here will be the battle at charity stripe tonight.
These teams rank similarly overall per ShotQuality with West Virginia coming in at 25th and Iowa St sitting at 17th but where the Mountaineers will have the edge is at the free throw line. West Virginia is elite at drawing fouls, ranking #9 in free throw rate while Iowa St fouls a lot on defense ranking #332 (highlighted below). Getting to the line is step one and WVU is no slouch at converting these attempts making 72% of their free throws.
Iowa St on the other hand is the complete opposite. They don’t get to the line often ranking #326 in free throw rate and when they do get there they are only making 66% of their shots. This is massive for a West Virginia team that plays physical on defense which leads to foul shots.
If West Virginia can have any type of lead late, we should be able to get a multiple possession win with the help of some free throws, but hopefully we won’t need it. I’m laying the 3.5 with WVU.
On deck we have a Big South matchup between Winthrop and UNC Asheville. These teams face off at 6:30 pm eastern on ESPN+ and UNC Asheville will be looking to hold onto a share of first in the conference.
The Pick: OVER 142.5
I like this over for a number of reasons but specifically each team’s ability to create and cash in on their three point attempts. Both of these teams rank in the top 40 in creating open looks from beyond the arc while simultaneously giving up open threes on defense. Per ShotQuality, Winthrop ranks #25 in Open 3 Rate on offense and ranks #264 on defense out of 363 possible teams. Similarly, UNC Asheville ranks #36 in Open 3 Rate on offense and ranks #340 on defense. I am expecting a lot of high quality shots from three for two teams that are converting threes at 38% rate which is top 25 in the league.
Our last play for the day is also a 7:00 pm game and is featured on ACCN. Virginia Tech is coming off a home win against rival Virginia last Saturday while Boston College is looking to bounce back after a home loss to Syracuse on the same day.
The Pick: Virginia Tech -13
ShotQuality currently has VT projected to win this game by 15 and I agree with this assessment. Virginia Tech is a well rounded and balanced team that doesn’t possess many flaws. They are efficient from the floor, from three, from the stripe and take care of the basketball. They also are very solid on defense ranking #59 in Adjusted ShotQuality and Boston College tends to struggle on offense. Especially with the status of DeMarr Langford up in the air, I think it could be a long night for the Eagles on the road.
One area that Boston College has performed well in is on the defensive end coming in at #48 in Adjusted ShotQuality. It is one of the reasons they have managed to stay in games this year and compete. However, I don’t think the defense travels against a Virginia Tech team that is able to post efficient numbers on the offensive end regardless of who they are matched up against.
About the Author
Max Hofmeyer is someone who eats, sleeps, and breathes college basketball. Like most gamblers, he doesn’t just watch the games for entertainment, he wants to make some money along the way. Max first became a subscriber of ShotQuality last year and posted his most profitable season yet. This season, with the help of ShotQuality, Max is 81-60-2 +15.0u on posted plays. Make sure to follow Max on Twitter!