San Diego State (+2.5) @ Utah State
The Mountain West Conference has been home to some of the best college basketball games this season. Nevada and New Mexico gave us another late-night instant classic last night as the Wolfpack went into The Pit and came out with a 77-76 win. The San Diego State / Utah State matchup tonight premiers two of the conference’s legitimate tournament contenders, in what has all the makings to be a one-possession game.
As seen on the SQ Premium Matchup Breakdown Team Stats (above), San Diego State ranks 20th in Adj ShotQuality going into this matchup, while Utah State ranks 60th. While both teams have been close to average ATS, based on ShotQuality scores, both teams are expected to be well below 0.500 Against the Spread.
As is typical with the Shot Quality model, we suspect that Home Court Advantage is being overvalued in Logan, Utah tonight. The Shot Quality Bets model has the 20th ranked San Diego State Aztecs as projected 3.5-point favorites over Utah State in tonight’s matchup. The 6 points of value on San Diego State is greater than the 4-point threshold required for recommended plays.
Utah State’s reliance on three-pointers, and success from deep is no secret. The Aggies are shooting 40% from 3PT this season, which is the top percentage in the country. Using the Shot Quality Regression tables (below), we can see that the Aggies are only expected to be shooting 35% from three, with 5% expected regression. On the other hand, San Diego State is only allowing opponents to shoot 29% from three on the season.
One thing to look for in this matchup is San Diego State’s high transition frequency of 13% (13th in the country) against Utah States 326th ranked transition defense, which is allowing 1.39 SQ PPP in transition. Additionally, San Diego State has great success finishing at the rim (17th in the country) while the Aggie defense ranks 335th in the nation defending shots at the rim.
These two teams met in San Diego less than two weeks ago, where the Aztecs found themselves as 7.5-point favorites. San Diego State won that game 85-75, while Shot Quality had them winning by 5. The 10-point difference in line between the two games is an indicator of an over-inflated home court advantage, and I’m happy to take the away team in this case.
The Play:
San Diego State +2.5
The Author:
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