by Max Hofmeyer
It is no secret that Saturdays are absolute chaos with over 150 games scheduled in just one day! It can be as equally stressful as it is exciting for hoops fans. Take a deep breath and relax because ShotQuality is here to help during this gauntlet of a day. Max-a-Million picks have started out on a 4-1 run so I invite you to join him in attacking the board today.
The Pick: Virginia -6
In this ACC clash I will be looking to lay the points with the conference leader. The Cavaliers are a team that have very few flaws, specifically on offense. They are ranked #11 in Adjusted ShotQuality offense, #33 in Shot Selection, #21 in Rim and 3 SQ PPP, and ranked highly in other important offensive categories as displayed to the right. One thing you can always say about Tony Bennett’s squads is that they always know their identity. He has kept this program relevant and dominant in the ACC during the reigns of Coach K and Roy Williams. I think this is a perfect opportunity to continue to show this at home in this massive Saturday Showdown
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Another ShotQuality tool I utilized frequently for today is the Trend Finder. Virginia as a two to three possession favorite at home in ACC play is 3-0 ATS, flexing their muscles in front of the Virginia faithful. I expect nothing less from Kihei Clark and company in this one.
The Pick: OVER 152.5
Next on the card we have an SEC matchup between the Tigers and Tide where I will be looking to take the over. These are two heavyweights on offense facing off per Adjusted ShotQuality rankings with Auburn at #25 and Alabama ranked #2. Not only are they efficient with their attempts, they both excel at getting to the free throw line. Alabama ranks as #36 in free throw rate on offense and Auburn is #64 in the same category. On the opposite end of the floor, both teams’ defensive units are allowing teams to get to the line at a high rate. Alabama is sending opponents to the line at a rate ranked #197 in the nation while Auburn is giving up a free throw rate ranked #315.
The efficiency of these offenses, the ability to get to the line, and the high rate that they send opponents to the line should lead to lots of points in this one. Another angle I’m looking at for this play is from the ShotQuality Trend Finder. Specifically, I’m looking at SEC conference games where the spread is one possession and has a total greater than 150 (displayed below). In games of this variety, the over is hitting at a 4-0-2 clip. Hopefully we can add another over to that trend.
The Pick: UNDER 132.5
Hard to believe that we didn’t get our first under until the 3rd edition of Max-a-Million picks but here we go. In this matchup we have unranked Illinois who is favored against a ranked opponent in Rutgers. These are spots where I like to take the unranked team but we missed that chance with the line steaming up to 5 from its 2.5 point open.
I am playing the under for this game because of how elite these defenses are. Per ShotQuality Illinois is #3 in Adjusted Defense ranking while Rutgers is #11 as shown above. Although the model is projecting the game to go over, I think these teams will frustrate each other more than expected. Another reason I chose to go with the under rather than laying the points with Illinois is their free throw shooting. Illinois is only shooting 67% from the stripe which could hurt them late and will help our under overall. We aren’t stopping there however, let’s take a look at the Trend Finder below.
The trend we are focusing on here is Big Ten conference games with a spread of 5 points or less and a total between 130 and 135. Games of this variety are 2-14 to the over with the games going under at a rate of 88%! I’ll be looking for lots of bricks and shot clock violations in this one.
The Pick: UNDER 140.5
Next, let’s take a look at Oklahoma and Kansas where I will be playing the under in this one as well. ShotQuality has this game projected at 137 points and I have to agree. Where I am looking specifically is both teams’ ability to create and allow open threes.
As depicted above, Kansas is ranked #328 in open 3 rate on offense while Oklahoma is ranked #17 on defense not allowing open looks from deep. Similarly, Oklahoma ranks #233 in open 3 rate on offense while Kansas is ranked #16 on defense.
Also, neither team is drawing fouls frequently or committing them often on the defense end. Kansas ranks #214 in free throw rate on offense and #226 on defense. Oklahoma ranks #273 in free throw rate on offense and #178 on defense. Oklahoma likes to play at a slower pace so if they can control the flow at home and the game isn’t a ref show, we should be able to stay under the total.
The Pick: Michigan -2.5
For this matchup I am laying the points with the Wolverines at home. On wednesday we had unranked West Virginia -3.5 at home vs a ranked Cyclones team and we got the cover. Here in a similar spot I am looking to take the unranked favorite at home. Also, I think this is a good sell high on Indiana here as they have a tough matchup on the road. ShotQuality is expecting to see regression from the Hoosiers displayed below. On defense, Indiana is doing significantly better defending at the rim than ShotQuality projects. On offense, Indiana is shooting 38% from three compared to a ShotQuality expected 34%.
Along with the regression statistics we are going to utilize the Trend Finder here as well. First, let’s take a look at Michigan (see below). Michigan as a home favorite in conference play of three points or less is 2-0 ATS. Since two games isn’t a significant sample, let’s also take a look at Indiana in this scenario.
As shown below, Indiana has been a road dog of three points or less in three matchups this season. In those games they are 0-3 ATS and 0-3 on the money line as well. With the regression expected, current trends, and Michigan being a short favorite at home I am willing to lay the points against the spread.
The Pick: Creighton -4
I’m taking the home Bluejays here who are currently on a 7 game win streak while the Huskies have not been tested in awhile on the road. UConn hasn’t seen a tough road opponent since a loss at Seton Hall on January 18th. Since then, their road games have been at DePaul and Georgetown, not necessarily too difficult.
These teams are pretty similar foes as displayed above but where Creighton will have the edge is the free throw line. UConn is fouling opponents at very high rate ranking #337 in Division I while Creighton is #2, not fouling their opponents often. The Adjusted ShotQuality defensive rankings for these teams are similar with Uconn #13 and Creighton #14. However, Creighton is able to be more effective on defense without fouling! Creighton will not waste these opportunities at the line either as they shoot 74% from the stripe. Contrary to the model projecting a UConn outright victory, Max-a-Million says Creighton wins and covers.
The Pick: Texas -6.5
Last, but certainly not least, I am playing the Longhorns in this Big 12 rematch that took place on January 21st where Texas won 69-61. We are seeing some value here as the model, shown below, is projecting a Texas win of about 9 points. These two teams are very similar as they are both good defensively and like to play physical. Both teams are in the top 25 in Defensive Adjusted ShotQuality with WVU ranked #24 and Texas #6.
Along with their physical defense, they both tend to foul at a higher rate. WVU shoots 73% from the line while Texas shoots 75% so whoever can win the battle at the free throw line should have an edge. I also give Texas a rest advantage here at home with their last matchup being February 6th. West Virginia on the other hand had to play in a physical matchup with Iowa St on February 8th. That was a game where we saw Erik Stevenson (14.6 ppg) struggle to get up off the floor multiple times for WVU. I think Texas looks fresh here and runs away with this one.
About the Author
Max Hofmeyer is someone who eats, sleeps, and breathes college basketball. Like most gamblers, he doesn’t just watch the games for entertainment, he wants to make some money along the way. Max first became a subscriber of ShotQuality last year and posted his most profitable season yet. This season, with the help of ShotQuality, Max is 86-66-2 +13.4u on posted plays. Make sure to follow Max on Twitter!