By Max Hofmeyer
Our first week of Max-a-Million is in the books and we were able to start strong sitting at 8-4 on the week. Our goal for this week is to continue that streak with the help of ShotQuality and thorough analysis of the games. With tonight’s smaller slate of games I’ve got one play I am looking at tonight.
For today’s play I am looking at this ACC matchup between North Carolina and Miami. Both of these teams are coming off wins from Saturday, and Miami is currently on a 4 game win streak. The #19 ranked Hurricanes are hoping to continue that streak while North Carolina is in need of a resume building win.
The Pick: OVER 155.5
Per ShotQuality, North Carolina is projected to beat the Hurricanes by a score of about 80-71 however I think we get a little more scoring than projected. It is no secret that both of these teams are offensively driven with North Carolina ranked #23 in Adjusted Offensive ShotQuality and Miami at #16.
For two of our better programs in college basketball this season, neither of them necessarily excel on the defensive end. Per Defensive Adjusted ShotQuality rankings, North Carolina ranks #70 and Miami is #80. This just feels like a game where both teams know that 70 points won’t be enough to win the game and I think both teams could find themselves in the 80s.
I think we are also due for some positive regression from both teams. If you notice in the screenshot above, these teams are a combined 23-27 to the Over. However, the SQ O/U record for these two is a combined 33-17!
On Saturday I think we had a lot of success using the Trend Finder tool on ShotQuality so I am looking to utilize this again. In the graphic above, there have been a total of 18 games played in ACC conference games with a total of 150 points or higher. Of those games, 12 of them have gone over the total. However, according to ShotQuality these games should be going over at an even higher rate. As shown in the SQ O/U record, ShotQuality projected that 16 of those 18 games should have gone over based on the quality of shots taken!
These teams aren’t afraid to play at a faster pace either with both of them ranking in the upper third of pace according to our friend KenPom. Even at this pace, they still value all the possessions that they are getting. Each of these teams are only averaging about 11 turnovers a game, which considering the pace, is pretty good. You also don’t want to send either team to the line as Miami is making 77% of their free throws and North Carolina is hitting 74%.
When breaking down these teams on ShotQuality, I feel like they mirror each other’s style. As shown above, Miami is #35 in Adjusted ShotQuality and North Carolina is right below them at #36. This should be a great matchup that I am looking forward to watching. Specifically I think the guard play of Isaiah Wong and Jordan Miller of Miami vs Caleb Love and Rj Davis of North Carolina will be appointment television. Clear your schedule, get comfortable, and root for points!
About the Author
Max Hofmeyer is someone who eats, sleeps, and breathes college basketball. Like most gamblers, he doesn’t just watch the games for entertainment, he wants to make some money along the way. Max first became a subscriber of ShotQuality last year and posted his most profitable season yet. This season, with the help of ShotQuality, Max is 86-66-2 +13.4u on posted plays. Make sure to follow Max on Twitter!