Welcome back to the ShotQuality Bets Weekly Primer! For those that didn’t catch the inaugural issue last week, this article is where we will be recapping the week in college basketball and look at which teams were lucky/unlucky according to ShotQuality data. We’ll also look ahead at a key game in the coming week where the ShotQuality Bets model may find some value. Let’s get into it!
ShotQuality Bets Model Recap
The ShotQuality Bets model had its first losing week in a while, hitting at a 49% rate across 263 plays, losing 17.2 units. Negative variance is a significant part of sports betting and every bettor or model is bound to experience a bumpy week at some point. Overall, the model has still been having its best season to date, hitting at a 54% rate and up 118.2 units. Our pick history is tracked publicly and can be accessed here. We’re gearing up towards March and there’s a lot more money to be made. Start growing your bankroll with a Model subscription, which can be purchased on the ShotQuality Bets Website.
Luckiest Teams ATS this Past Week
Let’s look at the Power 6 teams who covered more than expected this past week. Alabama and Texas Tech were the luckiest of the bunch as both were expected to be 0-2 ATS and instead covered in both their games.
It was a huge week for Alabama who beat two formidable SEC opponents in Florida and Auburn.
The Crimson Tide first ran the Gators off the floor on Wednesday in a game that the ShotQuality expected score expected to be much closer, which would have resulted in Florida covering the 9.5 point spread. Next, our data expected Alabama to both lose outright and fail to cover against Auburn on Saturday in an intense matchup of in-state rivals. To be clear, we still see ‘Bama as an elite team with the 6th-best Adjusted SQ Net Rating. However, they have been overperforming their expected results and it’s possible they may be due for some negative regression as the season approaches crunch time. Alabama will travel to Tennessee on Wednesday for an incredible Top-10 matchup before facing Georgia on Saturday.
Unluckiest Teams ATS this Past Week
A lot of Power-6 teams suffered the opposite fate over the past week and found themselves on the wrong-end of some unfortunate deviations from ShotQuality expected scores. Iowa, Florida, Notre Dame, LSU all should have gone 2-0 ATS according to our data but failed to cover either of their matchups. We have been high on these four teams all-season long as we have each ranked significantly higher than other systems like KenPom. Most notably, Iowa ranks 12th in Adjusted SQ Net Rating while KenPom has them as 34th.
Let’s zoom in on Notre Dame, who were extremely unlucky in ACC play this week.
The Fighting Irish first lost to Georgia Tech on Wednesday in a game that our data expected them to both win and cover. Then, Notre Dame brutally failed to cover a 5.5 spread by the hook on Saturday against Virginia Tech. Although our expected margin was only 1-point different from the actual margin, it was the key point that would have led to a Notre Dame cover. Our data still views Notre Dame as a Top-100 team with an expected record of 14-11, a vast improvement from their actual 10-15 tally. The Fighting Irish will have two chances to get Quad-1 wins this coming week as they play at Duke on Wednesday and at Virginia on Saturday.
ShotQuality Bets Lookahead Game
On Wednesday, Xavier will travel to Marquette for a key Big East matchup. Our model slightly favors Xavier to pull off a road victory which would have massive implications in the Big East.
While official betting lines are not yet released, KenPom makes this Marquette -6, so it’s likely that our model ends up having a play on Xavier. Keep an eye out for that line and subscribe to ShotQuality Bets for the official play and all of this week’s bets for just $19.95.
Best of luck this week and we’ll see you next Monday to break down all of the week’s action!
About the Author
Daniel Galper is a sophomore student at the University of Michigan studying Data Analytics and Statistics. He currently works for ShotQuality as a Data Science Intern and mainly creates data visualization content for social media. Using both the ShotQuality Bets Model and his own models, Daniel has beaten the college basketball market over a large sample size. In his free time, Daniel likes to play FIFA, paddleboard, and watch basketball. Follow Daniel on Twitter!