By Max Hofmeyer
For our last Max-a-Million on Monday we only had one play and it was unfortunately a loser so we are looking to bounce back today. However, on the season we are still sitting at a solid 8-5 so hopefully we can keep that momentum going. In store for today we have a pair of games I will be betting and breaking down.
For our first game I am looking to the game of the night for a wager. Tennessee has dropped 3 of their last 4 games, so like Max-a-Million they are looking for a bounce back tonight as the #1 team in the nation is in town.
The Pick: Tennessee -3
ShotQuality is projecting a Tennessee win on their home floor and I think they will be able to get the cover as well. Alabama was able to score 77 at Auburn in their last game thanks to an incredible #2 ranked Adjust ShotQuality Offense. They have been excellent on that side of the ball per ShotQuality stats. Alabama ranks #3 in Rim and 3 Rate, #9 Shot Selection and #13 in Spacing. However, Alabama will have its toughest test of the season tonight as Tennessee has an ELITE defense.
Tennessee ranks #12 in Adjusted ShotQuality Defense which will help counter an Alabama offense who tends to get what they want. Although Alabama ranks #3 in Rim and 3 Rate, they aren’t as equally efficient with these attempts ranking #98 in Rim and 3 SQ PPP. Translation: Alabama is great at creating high quality looks at the rim and from three but aren’t as good at converting when these opportunities are created. Tennessee’s defense ranks #35 in Rim and 3 SQ PPP so I am NOT expecting Alabama to improve their efficiency from these looks on offense.
The Crimson Tide are also due for some regression. Looking above, Alabama is having an impressive 22-3 season yet ShotQuality has projected their record to be 16-9! Below is a deeper dive into the regression analysis. Specifically, the defensive end for Alabama is due for significant regression. Alabama is allowing opponents to shoot 44% at the rim, 21% from three, and 30% from midrange. However, ShotQuality projected that opponents should have been shooting 56% at the rim, 33% from three, and 39% from midrange based on the quality of shots taken.These aren’t numbers that are likely to be sustainable as Tennessee has a very good offense ranking #10 in Adjusted ShotQuality Offense.
Lastly, I wanted to take a look at the ShotQuality Trend Finder for this matchup. As shown below, I am looking at SEC home favorites in conference play with a total of 145 points or higher. In matchups meeting these parameters, the home favorites are covering at a 9-4-1 clip. This is good news for us as we are laying 3 points at home with the Volunteers.
I am really looking forward to watching these SEC heavyweights clash tonight in Knoxville. Everything about this matchup is telling me that Tennessee gets a much needed win tonight and this crowd will be rocking. I am hoping for a storming of the court, Rocky Top on repeat, but most importantly a cover of the spread!
Next up on the card is another highly anticipated matchup. These two teams sit atop the conference and will be battling for control of the Big East. I am looking to play the total in this clash between Xavier and Marquette.
The Pick: OVER 160.5
Although the model is projecting an under here, I have to disagree for a couple of reasons. These teams are a combined 34-17 to the over and have been very profitable to the over this year. Additionally, when I look at the ShotQuality O/U record I am seeing similar numbers. ShotQuality has projected these teams to have a combined 31-20 record to the over which is still very profitable.
Both of these teams have been carried by their offenses playing efficient basketball on that end of the floor. Marquette ranks #12 in Adjusted ShotQuality Offense and Xavier isn’t far behind them ranking at #32. However, on the defensive end they aren’t as efficient or effective. Xavier is ranking #47 in Adjusted ShotQuality Defense while Marquette is #40.
These two teams faced off already a month ago where Xavier was able to come out victorious 80-76 at home. You never want to put too much stock into previous matchups but one aspect that was intriguing was the scoring discrepancy in each half. These teams combined for 92 points in the first half! I would expect the scoring to be more like the first half rather than a mediocre second half. The scoring slowed in the second half as both teams tightened up and traded buckets down the stretch with no free throws late. I don’t think that this will be case for round two of this matchup.
There are a couple trends I am looking to tonight for tonight’s matchup. The first is shown above looking at Big East conference games with a total of 160 points or higher. Games of this variety are going over at a 4-2 clip. Due to the smaller sample size, I also wanted to dive into Marquette and Xavier specifically.
Both Xavier and Marquette have been very effective in games where the total is more than 150 points. They each are 8-3 to the over in games of this variety and that is including the previous matchup that went under. Neither team is afraid to push the pace, both are efficient from 3 and around the rim, and neither team can necessarily defend those shots effectively. I think we are in store for an exciting matchup tonight where everyone is stuffing the stat sheet. It is a great spot to show off all the talent in the Big East.
About the Author
Max Hofmeyer is someone who eats, sleeps, and breathes college basketball. Like most gamblers, he doesn’t just watch the games for entertainment, he wants to make some money along the way. Max first became a subscriber of ShotQuality last year and posted his most profitable season yet. This season, with the help of ShotQuality, Max is 92-74-2 +10.6u on posted plays. Make sure to follow Max on Twitter!