By The Big 3 for 3
The Pick: TCU (+5.5) @ Iowa State
The Horned Frogs have put their fans and bettors through quite the roller-coaster ride this season. Despite starting the season ranked 14th, TCU struggled against Lamar, Arkansas Pine Bluff and even lost at home to Northwestern State. They quickly turned things around and went undefeated the rest of the way in non-conference play, then began Big 12 play at 6-3. They played themselves up to the 11th spot in the AP Poll before losing both Mike Miles and Eddie Lampkin. Since losing Miles – the Horned Frogs leading scorer at 18.1 PPG – TCU has lost 4 of their last 5 games. Miles and Lampkin will both remain out tonight, but I still like the Horned Frogs at this price without them.
I strongly believe that TCU is being heavily discounted due to the heavy amount of injuries they have incurred this season. Five of TCU’s top 7 scorers have missed at least 3 games, and four of those have missed 5 or more games. What impresses me the most about TCU is their ability to compete in the toughest conference in the country – despite missing so many key pieces. Since Miles’ injury, the Horned Frogs are 1-4, but Shot Quality has graded them as 3-2 in those 5 games. This includes what would’ve been a huge home win over Baylor, a game TCU led by 10 with 9 minutes to go.
Without their leading scorer in Ames tonight, the TCU offense faces a tough matchup against the Iowa State top-ranked Shot Quality defense. The Cyclone defense relies on forcing Turnovers (they rank 1st in defensive TO% at 25%) and bad shots (they rank 71st in opponent Shot Selection). Fortunately for TCU, they take care of the ball well with a TO% of only 16%, and they have the top-ranked Shot Selection in the country by Shot Quality data.
TCU is the 7th ranked team in the country based on Shot Quality, they take the right shots (1st in Shot Selection) and get great looks at those shots (10th in Rim & 3 SQ PPP). They don’t turnover the ball much on offense and force a very high TO% on defense as well. I believe that TCU can match the Cyclones stellar defense and even without Miles or Lampkin, the Horned Frogs should still have an advantage on the offensive end of the court (where Iowa State ranks 88th and TCU is 11th).
I really like the Horned Frogs to get back on track here after the market has cooled off on them. I strongly agree with the SQ model here and I like TCU to cover the 5.5 points, and possibly win the game outright too.
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