By Max Hofmeyer
Max-a-Million picks is back for a loaded Saturday slate today with over 140 games! Currently on the year we are sitting at a 9-6 record including a 4-3 performance last Saturday. It is hard to believe that it is almost already March but let’s stay focused here and try to keep the profits rolling into the greatest month of the year. Come join me and this 5 pack of games in no particular order that I am playing for today.
First up for our Saturday card is Arkansas hosting Florida. The big news coming out of this one is the unfortunate injury of Florida star Colin Castelton. He will be sidelined with a broken hand suffered in their last game vs Ole Miss.
The Pick: Arkansas -8.5
I am laying the points with Razorbacks here at home despite the ShotQuality projection having this game close. The biggest reason being how important Castelton was for this team and all the stats shown above. In his previous 4 games before the injury he scored; 25, 29, 25, and 20 points! He was the engine for this team and his absence will be missed.
One of the biggest edges I give Arkansas here is the Rim and 3 SQ PPP on offense. This ShotQuality metric measures a team’s efficiency with regards to shots from 3 and shots at the rim. I’ve said it before but it is worth reiterating how valuable these shots are. Arkansas ranks #17 in the nation in this ShotQuality statistic. Florida’s defense ranks #91 against these attempts which isn’t bad but that was with Colin Castleton who is a good rim protector. I’d expect that his absence amplifies these numbers and other areas as well.
Not only will the absence of Castelton hurt Florida but they were already due for some regression! Specifically, Florida is expected to see significant regression on defense which is illustrated below. In conference play their defense is giving up 52% at the rim, 30% from 3, 30% from the midrange, and 36% from the post. However, ShotQuality projected that these numbers should have been 57% at the rim, 33% from 3, 40% from midrange, and 44% from the post. Their defense has been outperforming what ShotQuality expected and the absence of Castleton will only amplify this expected regression.
Arkansas is coming off back to back losses so they are looking to get back on track here in this afternoon showdown. The spread being 9 points obviously is baking into the fact Castelton is out but I don’t think it is enough. It is almost March which means Musselman should have his guys peaking at the right time. I think that time starts here with a double digit win at home versus the Gators.
Next up on the card I am looking at this matchup between Virginia Tech and Pittsburgh for a bet. Pitt is currently on a 6 game win streak and is tied for first in the ACC. Virginia Tech on the other hand is coming off a terrible road loss to Georgia Tech.
The Pick: Virginia Tech -5
If you read that first paragraph and you are asking, “Why is this clown on Virginia Tech?” well just hear me out. For starters ShotQuality is projecting a 9 point win for the Hokies here on their home floor. I think that is what makes ShotQuality so effective. It removes any human bias we have towards a team like Virginia Tech who “stinks.” I am buying low here on a VT team that has struggled recently and selling high on a Pitt team who has been hot.
Where VT will have an edge will be on the offensive end of the floor. VT is #43 in Adjusted ShotQuality Offense and is going up against a Pitt defense that ranks #138 in Adjusted ShotQuality Defense. The Hokies have plenty of weapons in Basile, Pedulla, Mutts and Cattoor who should stuff the stat sheet in this one.
Similar to Florida, Pittsburgh is due for significant regression on the defense end as displayed above. Pittsburgh is currently allowing ACC opponents to shoot 51% at the rim, 32% from 3, 40% from the midrange, and 32% from the post. However, ShotQuality projects that opponents should have been shooting 58% at the rim, 34% from 3, 38% from the midrange, and 44% from the post.
Lastly, I wanted to take a look at the ShotQuality Trend Finder for this game. Pitt this year is 4-0 ATS as a road underdog in ACC play. However, ShotQuality had them projected to go 1-3 ATS in this stretch! This trend is also playing into the narrative of selling high on Pitt as they are due for some regression. I don’t think there is a better spot to get exploited than on the road versus a tough Virginia Tech team.
For our next bet I am looking to the PAC12 or the conference of champions as Bill Walton would say. Arizona St will be hosting Utah in this matchup between two foes who are both coming off losses.
The Pick: OVER 135.5
The first thing that stood out about this one is that ShotQuality is projecting this game to be about 140 which would put us over the total. Arizona St ranks #59 in Adjusted ShotQuality Offense and faces a Utah team that is #101 in Adjusted ShotQuality Defense. For Utah, their offense ranks #65 in Adjusted ShotQuality Offense and will be facing an ASU defense that is #92 in Adjusted ShotQuality Defense. This is telling us that both offenses will have an edge against their respective defensive opponents. Hopefully this will remain true and we will get lots of points in this one!
Also highlighted in the breakdown above is the O/U record for both of these teams. Combined overs are hitting at 24-29-1 clip between these two teams. However, ShotQuality has projected that these teams should have been going over at 37-17 rate!
Another reason for liking this game is displayed above. Using ShotQuality’s Sandbox feature, users are able to create their own projections using their preference of parameters. For example, if you are someone like me who doesn’t value midrange statistics as much, you can throw those parameters out of your model!
Well shown above is one of the models I have been using for awhile now and overs are hitting at a rate of 70%! This feature is one of my favorites that ShotQuality has to offer and can be very effective for long term profits. Let’s root for some points and make sure those overs are still hitting at a high rate.
Next on the card, I am looking to attack this Big 12 matchup between TCU and Oklahoma St. The big news coming out of this one is that Mike Miles should be back for TCU. The Horned Frogs have missed his presence in the last 5 games and the TCU faithful will be rocking when he is back out there.
The Pick: TCU -6
ShotQuality is projecting this game to be about a 2 point win for TCU, however I think they are able to win by a greater margin. TCU is ranked in the top 15 in both Adjusted ShotQuality Offense and Defense. Shown below is the current top 10 rankings per ShotQuality and TCU is coming in at a solid 8!
Miles’ return to the lineup can not be understated as he is one of those premier impact players in college basketball. In the screenshot below is TCU’s last 5 games, of which Miles did not play in any of them. They went a poor 1-4 but ShotQuality actually projected that they should have went 3-2. TCU was able to hang around in a lot of those games despite being short handed.
Lastly, a common theme in this conference has been the effectiveness of B12 teams at home this season. As displayed below, home favorites in B12 conference play are an astounding 53-35-1, that is 60%!
This should be a great bounceback spot for TCU at home as they get a visiting OK St who ranks #61 in Adjusted ShotQuality Offense. Points will be at a premium for the Cowboys and TCU should be able to frustrate them all day long.
For our last play of the night I am looking to the West Coast Conference for a bet. Gonzaga is going on the road again after dropping 108 points on LMU on Thursday. The Waves on the other hand haven’t played a game since last Saturday and should be well rested.
The Pick: OVER 164
I am playing the over in this game as the high number is not going to scare me off. ShotQuality projects this game to have a total of 165 points and I think we are able to exceed that number. For starters, both of these are good to the overs with Pepperdine at 18-7 and Gonzaga is 16-12.
Additionally, Gonzaga is an elite #5 in Adjusted ShotQuality Offense and has an easier matchup going against a #237 ranked Waves defense. These teams are not afraid to run either as they both rank in the top 40 in pace. This game should be up and down with a lot of possessions, despite any lead Gonzaga might have. If you are worried about Zags getting up big and slowing it down I would like to refer to the 108 points they dropped last game. Each team is dedicated to their style of play and will stick with it.
Lastly, I wanted to take a look at the ShotQuality Trend Finder. In the two screenshots above, I am looking at totals of 155+ points for both Pepperdine and Gonzaga. In games of this variety, Pepperdine is 5-2-1 and Gonzaga is 8-6 to the over. High totals don’t fret either of these teams as their offense’s are able to pour it in while simultaneously not getting stops on defense.
This wraps up our 5 pack of games as we look to post another winning Saturday. Enjoy watching the games and relaxing on this fine Saturday that is jammed packed with action all day! Good luck and may your bets cash with high frequency.
About the Author
Max Hofmeyer is someone who eats, sleeps, and breathes college basketball. Like most gamblers, he doesn’t just watch the games for entertainment, he wants to make some money along the way. Max first became a subscriber of ShotQuality last year and posted his most profitable season yet. This season, with the help of ShotQuality, Max is 99-76-2 +15.4u on posted plays. Make sure to follow Max on Twitter!