By Max Hofmeyer
On Saturday for our last Max-a-Million we were able to post a 4-1 day and move to an impressive 13-7 (65%, +5.3u) on the year! Today there are only 18 games for today’s slate and I will be looking to analyze and bet one of them for today’s Max-a-Million along with a bonus player prop.
The Pick: TCU -1.5
For tonight’s play I am looking to the game of the night for some action. Those of you who follow me on Twitter saw me post this one and give it out at -1 but I still like it here at -1.5. After sleeping on it and diving into the numbers I still felt that this play was worthy of making the Max-a-Million card.
Taking a look at the ShotQuality Value Finder this game is projected to be a tightly contested matchup between a pair of Big 12 foes. However, I am giving TCU a slight edge here at home and I think they are able to get the win and most importantly the cover.
This game should be a great opportunity for each of these teams to show off to the nation why they are capable of winning a national championship. In the picture above we have a Jayhawks team that is ranked #7 in Adjusted ShotQuality Offense facing up against TCU who is #12 in Adjusted ShotQuality Defense.
Similarly in the image below, The Horned Frogs are ranked #12 in Adjusted ShotQuality Offense and facing a Kansas team that is #9 in Adjusted ShotQuality Defense. All these reasons point to this game being close, however I think it will be the home and road splits that show us why TCU will have the edge in this one.
Displayed in the picture below using the ShotQuality Trend Finder is the performance of home favorites in B12 conference play. Home favorites in the B12 are an impressive 33-23-1 ATS (59%) and 43-14 straight up (75%)! So not only are teams in conference play able to win these games, but they are also covering a high rate as well. There are no anomalies when looking at these two teams with respect to this trend as well.
In the two screenshots below we show their contribution to games of this variety. Kansas has only been a road underdog once this season and that was 2 point underdog at Baylor which was a game they lost 75-69. TCU on the other hand has been a home favorite in conference play on 6 different occasions. In those games they were able to go 4-1-1 ATS and 5-1 straight up. I am fully expecting TCU to take advantage of their homecourt tonight and continue this trend of B12 dominance at home.
Also, attached below is the entirety of Kansas’ conference schedule (outside of the one game against Kentucky). Although Kansas has only been a road underdog once, they haven’t necessarily dominated on the road in conference play like they traditionally do. Kansas is a pedestrian 4-3 on the road in B12 games versus their dominant 5-1 record at home. That one loss at home in conference play was a game against TCU where they lost 83-60.
Lastly, I wanted to take a look at the ShotQuality regression analysis for Kansas. Nothing of true significance here but I do think it is worth noting that they are projected to have some slight regression. Similar to our analysis of Pitt in Saturday’s Max-a-Million, teams that are due for regression can see this happen when they have tough tests on the road.
This is one of those games that as a fan of basketball I can’t wait to watch and enjoy. TCU was good to us on Saturday as they throttled Oklahoma St. and scored 100 points in Mike Miles’ return from injury. The TCU faithful should be on their feet all game giving them a significant home court advantage.
Since we only have one game on the card tonight I also have a correlated player prop for any of those who are interested and I played it as well. This is unofficial and won’t count towards the record but I think it is worth consideration.
Player Prop: Dejuan Harris UNDER 8.5 Points
I was able to find this one on Barstool and DraftKings if you use either of those books. My reasoning for taking this is his performance in games in which Kansas loses. Kansas has lost 5 games this season and in those losses he scored 2, 3, 0, 2, and 2 points. So obviously this is correlated with the fact that I think TCU will win this game tonight. In tightly contested games like this, he just isn’t looking to score as KU has better options offensively.
Also, in his last 5 road games in conference play Harris is only averaging 5.6 points and only went above this number of 8.5 once in that stretch and that was a 16 point game at Oklahoma. So other than that one contest at Oklahoma, he is usually held in check and I’d expect nothing different tonight versus TCU.
About the Author
Max Hofmeyer is someone who eats, sleeps, and breathes college basketball. Like most gamblers, he doesn’t just watch the games for entertainment, he wants to make some money along the way. Max first became a subscriber of ShotQuality last year and posted his most profitable season yet. This season, with the help of ShotQuality, Max is 107-78-2 +21.2u on posted plays. Make sure to follow Max on Twitter!