Welcome back to the ShotQuality Bets Weekly Primer! We’re ready to recap the past week in college hoops and dive into which teams were lucky/unlucky according to ShotQuality data. We’ll also preview an important game in the coming week where the ShotQuality Bets model may find some value. Let’s get into it!
ShotQuality Bets Model Recap
The ShotQuality Bets model was having an incredible week until a killer -10 unit Saturday. Overall, the model went 141-130 (52%), resulting in a slight loss on the week of 2 units. Our model is still up a huge 116.6 units on the season, hitting a 53.8% clip across almost 4,000 plays. Our pick history is tracked publicly and can be accessed here. We’re creeping up on March and there’s a lot more money to be made. Start growing your bankroll with a model subscription, which can be purchased on the ShotQuality Bets Website.
Luckiest Teams ATS this Past Week
As is the case every week, there were a lot of Power 6 teams that covered at a higher rate than they should have based on ShotQuality expected scores. USC and Penn State stand out as the luckiest of the bunch as they weren’t expected to cover either of their games based on their offensive/defensive shot quality and still went 2-0 ATS.
Let’s zoom in USC, who were fortunate to go 2-0 in the PAC-12 this week.
The Trojans first blew the doors off of struggling California, covering easily in the process. However, our data expected Cal to keep that game much closer, which would have resulted in USC failing to cover. Next, USC was lucky to beat ShotQuality darling Stanford, nevertheless cover a 6.5 point spread. Because of results like this, our rankings are far lower on USC than other systems as we have the Trojans ranked 71st compared to 48th on KenPom. USC faces two tough road tests in the coming week against Colorado on Thursday and Utah on Saturday.
Unluckiest Teams ATS this Past Week
For every team that’s lucky to cover, there has to be a team on the other side that finds themselves on the wrong-end of variance from ShotQuality expected scores. This past week, the teams that suffered that fate to an extreme degree were Mississippi, Oregon State, California, and Georgia. All these teams were expected to go 2-0 ATS but instead went 0-2.
Mississippi just experienced one of the unluckiest weeks possible in college hoops.
Our data expected The Rebels to pick up 2 huge underdog wins this week in SEC play and they instead went 0-2 both straight up and ATS. First, Mississippi fell to the Gators on Wednesday as 10.5 underdogs in a game they should have won outright! Next, the Rebels lost a rivalry game against Mississippi State despite out-scoring the Bulldogs by 17 ShotQuality expected points. It’s been one of those years for Mississippi who sit at 10-17, way below their expected record of 15-12. Our data remains high on the Rebels as we have them rated as the 56th best team in the nation while KenPom has them all the way at 119. Ole Miss will have a chance to prove themselves in a matchup with Auburn on Wednesday before facing LSU on Saturday.
ShotQuality Bets Lookahead Game
On Tuesday, red-hot Baylor will travel to play Kansas State in a massive Big-12 clash. Our model loves Baylor to keep rolling, with a projected spread of Baylor -5.2
While official betting lines are not yet released, KenPom has this projected as Kansas State -1, so our model will likely end up having a play on Baylor. Keep an eye out for that line and subscribe to ShotQuality Bets for the official play and all of this week’s bets for just $19.95.
Best of luck this week and we’ll see you next Monday to break down all of the week’s action!
About the Author
Daniel Galper is a sophomore student at the University of Michigan studying Data Analytics and Statistics. He currently works for ShotQuality as a Data Science Intern and mainly creates data visualization content for social media. Using both the ShotQuality Bets Model and his own models, Daniel has beaten the college basketball market over a large sample size. In his free time, Daniel likes to play FIFA, paddleboard, and watch basketball.