By Max Hofmeyer
For Monday’s limited card I think it was smart to not force anything as we only had one play in TCU that was a loser vs Kansas. Max-a-Million picks are currently sitting at 13-8 on the year which is still an impressive 62%. I am looking to hopefully keep that going with a pack of 3 unders in store for tonight. Don’t be discouraged if you are someone who likes points because unders are fun too!
The Pick: UNDER 138
For our first game I am looking at this Patriot League matchup between Holy Cross and Loyola MD. ShotQuality has this game projected at about 134 points and I think this is accurate. The first thing that stands out in this one is how inefficient these offenses are. Loyola ranks #330 out of a possible 363 teams in Adjusted ShotQuality Offense. Similarly, Holy Cross also struggles on this side of the ball ranking #348 in Adjusted ShotQuality Offense.
It is worth noting that although these offenses struggle, the defenses are much better. Loyola is #240 in Adjusted ShotQuality Defense and Holy Cross is #285. However, I think both these defenses should get a bump for tonight considering the offenses they are facing. These teams aren’t great on either side of the ball but they each are better on defense.
Looking at the ShotQuality Trend Finder above is Patriot League games with a total of 130-139 points and a spread of 5 points or less. Games of this variety of 20-26 to the overs and have a ShotQuality expected record of 16-28-2 to the over. Games of similar blueprints to tonight in the Patriot League are going under frequently and are expected to be going under at an even higher rate.
The last time these teams played as displayed above it was a win for Holy Cross of a 63-55 score. The SQ expected score was pretty consistent with the total points scored. They scored 118 points in the previous matchup and ShotQuality expected 121 between the two opponents. If this matchup is close towards the end and comes down to free throws, neither team excels from the stripe. They each are shooting a poor 64% on the year so points will not come easy tonight for either team.
Lastly, I wanted to take a look at some regression analysis for Loyola MD shown above. Specifically, they are due for some noticeable regression on the defensive end of the floor. Opponents in conference play are shooting 61% at the rim, 39% from 3, 44% from midrange, and 60% from the post. The ShotQuality expected FG percentages are 61% at the rim, 35% from 3, 39% from midrange, and 46% from the post. Hopefully we can see some of this positive defensive regression as Loyola looks to defend home court tonight versus Holy Cross.
The Pick: UNDER 131.5
For our next under, I am looking at this Sun Belt matchup between Texas St. and South Alabama. ShotQuality has this game projected as a 67-63 win for the Bobcats at home. That would be 130 points keeping us under the total, however I think we see a little lower scoring battle tonight in this one.
Similar to our Loyola and Holy Cross matchup, both of these teams are better on the defensive end of the floor compared to their respective offenses. Texas St. is #200 in Adjusted ShotQuality Offense while South Alabama is #183 in Adjusted ShotQuality Defense. South Alabama is #207 in Adjusted ShotQuality Offense and will be facing a Texas St. team that is #147 in Adjusted ShotQuality Defense.
These teams are very similar in rankings and it has all the signs of being a close matchup. What has killed Texas St. is their inability to play defense without fouling. Texas St. ranks #349 in ShotQuality Free Throw Rate, however South Alabama’s offense does not draw fouls often ranking #362 in this respective category. This should help negate all the free points Texas St. gives up at the stripe which can lead to overs.
Let’s take a look at the ShotQuality Trend Finder for each of these teams. First, in the picture above I am looking at Texas St. conference totals in the range of 125-135 points. In games of this variety, the Under is hitting at 5-1 clip.
Similarly, displayed below are South Alabama conference games within this same range. In Sun Belt matchups with a total between 125-135, the Under is hitting at a 6-3 rate.
Included in this trend is the previous game between these two opponents that went under as they only scored 122 points. For this game I am expecting a similar result and a game that is played in the 120s.
The Pick: UNDER 138
For the caboose of our under train I am looking at a matchup between UNC Greensboro and Western Carolina. The Catamounts of Western Carolina are looking for revenge in this one as they were routed by UNCG last matchup 72-47.
ShotQuality is projecting a win for UNCG of 72-58 which would put us at 130 points and comfortably under the total. Western Carolina is the road team here and is an inferior opponent so I would expect UNCG to control the tempo. The Sparatans are a very balanced team ranking #149 in Adjusted ShotQuality Offense and #132 in Adjusted ShotQuality Defense.
UNC Greensboro should be able to use that balance to dictate the pace of this one. If they can hold onto a comfortable lead, there is no reason why we can’t get that 72-58 result. What kills so many unders is the constant fouling at the end of games. If UNCG can hold onto a sizable lead late, hopefully the Catamounts will concede to avoid the tragic 10 point last minute.
This game also checks boxes when it comes to the ShotQuality Trend Finder, a tool I like to utilize often. In the top image, I am looking at UNCG home games this year which have gone 7-4 to the under. Similarly, when WCU has to go on the road the under is hitting at a 9-5 rate. UNCG is just a more comfortable team at home as they often control the pace and play the slower style of basketball they prefer.
About the Author
Max Hofmeyer is someone who eats, sleeps, and breathes college basketball. Like most gamblers, he doesn’t just watch the games for entertainment, he wants to make some money along the way. Max first became a subscriber of ShotQuality last year and posted his most profitable season yet. This season, with the help of ShotQuality, Max is 108-81-2 +18.9u on posted plays. Make sure to follow Max on Twitter!