By Max Hofmeyer
Welcome back to another edition of Max-a-Million picks as we are currently sitting at 14-10 on the season. A major contributor to our record has been our Saturday performances thus far. The last two Saturdays we have posted records of 4-3 and 4-1! Those who have been following know how much of a gauntlet Saturdays can be, so let me help out and try to find a couple winners for us all! Can we make it 3 straight winning Saturdays? I don’t see why not so let’s dive in.
First up on the card is this noon matchup between Villanova who is hosting Creighton. Creighton is coming off a home loss to Marquette where they were playing for a Big East Regular Season Championship essentially. Marquette gets the win and should have no problem closing out their cupcake schedule to secure the 1 seed heading to Madison Square Garden. Villanova on the other hand is coming off an impressive road win at Xavier on Tuesday.
The Pick: VILLANOVA +3.5
I am playing the home dog here as Villanova seems to be playing better with Justin Moore getting his sea legs back and the Wildcats will be looking to make it 4 straight wins at home. ShotQuality is projecting this to be a coin flip game as shown in the predicted score below. I am going to be riding with the ShotQuality model for our first play of the day.
These are two of the best defenses in the country facing off in this battle. Villanova ranks #10 in Adjusted ShotQuality Defense while Creighton is an equally impressive #13. Neither one of these teams will allow easy opportunities for their opponents. Where Creighton will have the edge is on offense. Creighton is ranked #20 in Adjusted ShotQuality Offense while Villanova only ranks #72.
Although Creighton has an offensive edge overall, I think Villanova has opportunities to make the Bluejays uncomfortable. Villanova’s defense ranks #28 in Rim and 3 Rate and #35 in Rim and 3 SQ PPP. Translation; Villanova excels at not allowing opponents to get opportunities at the rim and from 3 (Rim and 3 Rate) while simultaneously not allowing opponents to convert when they do get these opportunities (Rim and 3 SQ PPP). This is important as shots at the rim and from 3 are the most valuable!
Looking at the ShotQuality Trend Finder above, Creihgton has struggled away from Omaha as they are only 3-5 ATS in road Big East games. Villanova on the other hand hasn’t been impressive at home as they are 3-5 ATS in home Big East games. However, Villanova in their last 3 home games is 2-1 ATS with the one loss only being by 1 point.
Villanova has won their last 3 home games and this is playing into the narrative that Nova is getting better thanks to Justin Moore being back to his old self. In Justin Moore’s last 3 games he has scored 15, 17, and 25 points getting better each game. I am expecting Creighton to be a little deflated as they were playing for the Big East 1 seed last game versus Marquette. They fought hard to come back late but it wasn’t enough. I think Villanova will be able to keep it close and possibly get the outright win.
Next on the card I am looking at this SEC matchup between Alabama who is hosting Arkansas. Alabama is coming off a game where they were on upset watch for 45 minutes but ultimately beating South Carolina in OT. Arkansas on the other hand is coming off back to back wins of 19 and 22 points in their previous two matchups.
The Pick: OVER 151
ShotQuality is projecting this game to have about 161 points and I am riding with that assessment. Although it is a higher total, if you look at the statistics of each team below it makes sense and should probably be higher.
Both of these teams will have an edge on offense compared to their respective defensive opponents. Alabama is ranked #2 in Adjusted ShotQuality Offense and will be facing off against an Arkansas defense that is ranked #25. The Razorbacks are #46 in Adjusted ShotQuality Offense and will be going against an Alabama team that is ranked #52 on defense.
There are two specific areas in this matchup that will result in points for us, Free Throw Rate and Shot Selection. Both of these teams are very good at drawing contact and getting to the line. Alabama is ranked #31 in Free Throw Rate while Arkansas is an equally impressive #34. Both defenses also foul frequently as Arkansas’ defense is #300 in Free Throw Rate and Alabama is #218. Essentially these teams spend a lot of time at the line while also sending their opponents to the line frequently.
The other area is how impressive these teams have been with their shot selection. Alabama’s offense ranks #9 in Shot Selection while Arkansas’ offense is #16. Both Nate Oats and Eric Musselman understand how important it is to take good shots and it translates favorably to the ShotQuality projection.
Alabama’s offense has been an absolute machine at home when they are playing in a game with a high total. Displayed above is Alabama’s home SEC games with a total of 150 points or higher. In those games the over is 2-1 and they scored 101, 97, and 108 points! The only game that went under was because of Vanderbilt’s embarrassing 44 point performance.
These teams are also due for significant regression on defense which is good for an over. As shown above, Alabama is allowing opponents to shoot 45% at the rim, 23% from 3, 34% from midrange, and 39% from the post. However, ShotQuality projects that opponents should have been shooting 56% at the rim, 32% from 3, 38% from the midrange, and 46% in the post. Arkansas is #67 in Open 3 Rate so hopefully they can convert some triples as 23% for a defense just isn’t sustainable.
Lastly, let’s take a look below at Arkansas as they too are due for significant defensive regression. Arkansas is allowing opponents to shoot 49% at the rim, 34% from 3, 33% from midrange, and 24% from the post. ShotQuality projected Arkansas’ opponents should have shot 56% at the rim, 33% from 3, 35% from midrange, and 42% in the post.
All signs point towards an over in this one. Both teams get to the line, foul frequently on defense, take good shots, and are due for regression on defense. It also never hurts that both of these teams aren’t afraid to get out and push the pace on offense either. This one should be a fun matchup to watch. Home team, away team, points points points!
For our next game, I am looking at this matchup between Oklahoma St. hosting Kansas St. This is a game where I am not going to overthink it and just ride with the model and season trends.
The Pick: OKLAHOMA STATE -1.5
The ShotQuality projection has the Cowboys winning this one along with a cover at home. As Max-a-Million has talked about in recent posts, Big 12 home favorites have dominated this season. As shown below, B12 favorites are 45-16 straight up and 35-25-1 ATS!
How has Oklahoma St. performed under this trend? Well I’m glad you asked! Below is the Cowboy’s record as a home favorite in conference play. They are an impressive 5-0 straight up and 4-1 ATS as a home favorite!
Like I mentioned in the beginning of this analysis, I am not overthinking it here with OK St. Between the model projecting a cover and B12 trends this year, that is enough for me to take a position on the home team. Got to love how easy ShotQuality data can make it for us sometimes (hopefully)!
Next, I am looking at this rematch between Gonzaga and St. Mary’s. I couldn’t think of a better way to close out WCC play than this matchup! I am not entirely sure how the tiebreaker works but if Gonzaga can avenge their previous 78-70 OT loss then both teams will be 14-2 in conference play.
The Pick: GONZAGA -5
The first thing that stood out to me in this one is that ShotQuality is projecting a 10 point win for the Bulldogs at home. Although Gonzaga has been treated by the media as having a “down year” they have still been quite impressive. ShotQuality currently has Gonzaga ranked as the #15 team in the nation and that is thanks to their prolific offense. Gonzaga is ranked #4 in Adjusted ShotQuality Offense.
Specifically, I like the edge Gonzaga has in Shot Selection and Rim and 3 SQ PPP. ShotQuality ranks Gonzaga at #37 in Shot Selection while St. Mary’s defense is #188. Shot Selection is so important as teams who are able to get open looks normally will have greater success on offense. Gonzaga is also very efficient with their attempts at the rim and from 3 as they are #19 in ShotQuality Rim and 3 SQ PPP. St. Mary’s is #241 in defending these attempts so I would expect Gonzaga to be able to convert high quality looks at the rim and from 3 which are the most valuable shots.
I also give Gonzaga an edge here in the home and road splits for WCC games. Attached above is the Gaels performance when they have to go on the road in conference play. In games of this variety they are 3-4 ATS.
Gonzaga on the other hand has been able to normally take care of business at home in WCC play. Gonzaga at the Kennel is 3-2 ATS in conference games as shown below.
This just feels like a perfect revenge spot for Gonzaga as St. Mary’s got the best of them last game. I don’t think anyone would be surprised to see the series split with both of the home teams getting the win and cover. The Kennel holds 6,000 and they never have any problem packing the stadium and getting loud when the Gaels are visiting.
Last, but never least, is Max-a-Million frequent flier the Pepperdine Waves who are hosting LMU. Pepperdine has made my card multiple times including last Saturday where I gave out over 164 points and it closed at a whopping 170.5! No matter what number you had it was a winner as they scored 185 in that matchup with Gonzaga. I am looking to hopefully get some value again here as I am going back to the well.
The Pick: OVER 156
Looking at the breakdown below, this will be the only play today where we are disagreeing with the model. ShotQuality is projecting this one to have about 147 points but I think we are able to get more.
Both of these teams are better on the offensive side of the ball for starters. Pepperdine is #97 in Adjusted ShotQuality Offense and is facing a LMU team that is #161 on defense. LMU is ranked #60 in Adjusted ShotQuality Offense and is facing a poor defensive team in Pepperdine that is #236. The Waves are going to push the pace as they are #9 in Adjusted Tempo per our friend KenPom and they aren’t going to play much defense either. This is always a good recipe for an over.
These teams have also been very profitable to the over this season. Looking at the records above, LMU is 18-10 to the overs and Pepperdne is 20-7! Combined that is a very nice 69% over rate for these teams.
It should come to no surprise that the ShotQuality Trend Finder really likes the over here as well. Displayed above, Pepperdine at home this year is 5-1-1 to the over. Taking a look at LMU below, when the Lions go on the road in conference play they are also profitable to the over. In LMU road WCC games the over is hitting at a 5-2 rate!
This game has everything you want in an over. First, both offensive ShotQuality ratings are significantly higher than their defensive matchups. Neither team is afraid to push the pace, specifically the home team wants to run. Both defenses also foul frequently as LMU is #265 in defensive Free Throw Rate while Pepperdine is #223. Let’s hope this one is up down with lots of scoring and we end our nightcap with a cash!
About the Author
Max Hofmeyer is someone who eats, sleeps, and breathes college basketball. Like most gamblers, he doesn’t just watch the games for entertainment, he wants to make some money along the way. Max first became a subscriber of ShotQuality last year and posted his most profitable season yet. This season, with the help of ShotQuality, Max is 111-85-2 +17.5u on posted plays. Make sure to follow Max on Twitter!