By Max Hofmeyer
Welcome back to another edition of Max-a-Million picks as we are currently sitting at 17-12 (59%) on the season and coming off a Saturday where we went 3-2. That performance made it 3 straight profitable Saturdays, if only there were 100+ games to pick from everyday! Although there aren’t 100+ games today, I was still able to find 3 bets that I like. Let’s dive in and try to post another winning card for Max-a-Million.
First on our card is Oklahoma St. who is hosting Baylor. OK St. made our card on Saturday where they managed to blow an 8 point lead with 12 minutes left against Kansas St. Baylor on the other hand is coming off a big win versus Texas but unfortunately Keyonte George suffered an injury and will be withheld from tonight’s contest.
The Pick: OKLAHOMA ST (-110)
First off, the absence of Keyonte George can not be understated. He only played 7 minutes against Texas and Baylor was still able to handle the Longhorns at home. However, this will be a different challenge going on the road which is never easy in the Big 12. George is an elite volume scorer for the Bears and can get his shot whenever he likes. ShotQuality is projecting a Baylor win of about 3 points. I think this projection is accurate and the spread would be about Baylor -3 tonight if George was playing. However, he is not and this will be Baylor’s first game without him.
Where Oklahoma St will be able to win this game tonight will be their presence on the defensive end. OK St. ranks #21 in Adjusted Defensive ShotQuality and will have a tall task tonight with Baylor’s #8 Adjusted ShotQuality Offense coming to town. However, despite being highly rated on offense I think we see some regression without George on the floor.
Baylor is #271 in ShotQuality Shot Selection and is #1 in Shot Making. Translation; Baylor doesn’t necessarily get the best looks (Shot Selection) but they excel at making these more contested opportunities compared to the average player (Shot Making). This makes sense when you think about Baylor’s guards. George, Flagler, and Cryer all can create their own shot. However, taking George out of this equation will only cause some of these Baylor numbers to regress, ESPECIALLY in a road B12 game.
Lastly, taking a look at the ShotQuality Trend Finder I am focusing on OK St. as a home favorite in B12 games. Of these games they are 5-1 straight up (with their first loss on Saturday) and 4-2 ATS. I think this is a great bounce back spot for the Cowboys at home getting a Baylor team that won’t have their leading scorer in George (16.3 ppg). Oklahoma St. couldn’t get us the cover on Saturday but I think they can get it done for us tonight.
For our next bet I am looking at this matchup between Alcorn St. and Texas Southern. Both of these teams are coming off losses on Saturday and will be looking to bounce back tonight. The last matchup between these two was an overtime win of 79-74 for Alcorn St.
The Pick: TEXAS SOUTHERN +3.5
ShotQuality is projecting a road win tonight for the Tigers of Texas Southern of about 3 points so I like taking the underdog here with +3.5 available. Where Texas Southern will have an edge is on the defensive end due to their own prowess and the lackluster offense they are facing tonight.
Texas Southern ranks #148 in Adjusted ShotQuality Defense and will be facing off against an Alcorn St. offense that ranks #310 in Adjusted ShotQuality Offense. If you notice the slew of red in the image above under Alcorn’s offensive column. They rank very poorly in Rim and 3 Rate (346th), Shot Selection (328th), Shot Making (348th), among others. Texas Southern’s defense is above average ranking #112 in Rim and 3 rate and #20 in Shot Making, so I’d expect Alcorn’s struggles to continue.
What has hurt Texas Southern all year is their deficiencies on offense. Similar to Alcorn, they rank #329 in Adjusted ShotQuality Offense. However, unlike Alcorn, they will have a much easier matchup going against a defense in Alcorn that ranks #202 in Adjusted ShotQuality Defense.
The refs should be very busy in this one as both of these teams tend to foul very frequently. Texas Southern is #228 in Free Throw Rate and Alcorn ranks #337. Although Alcorn is fouling at a higher rate than Texas Southern, the battle at the line should be a wash as Texas Southern only shoots 65% at the line. Poor free throw shooting has hurt the Tigers this year but hopefully they can score more points at the line than the Braves, even if that is at a lower percentage. I think Texas Southern can get the cover tonight and possibly an outright road win.
For our last play of the night, we have Eastern Washington who will be hosting Montana St. These are two of the Big Sky’s best teams as EWU is 22-8 and Montana St. is 21-9 on the season. If you haven’t watched either team I think tonight is an opportunity to get a good look at the talent from these opponents as one of them could be representing the Big Sky in March.
The Pick: MONTANA ST. +2
I am going with another underdog tonight to close out our 3 pack of bets. As I am editing today’s post I happened to notice Big 3 is on the Bobcats as well stating it is his biggest play of the year! ShotQuality is projecting this one to be about a 2 point win for Montana St. so I will be riding with Big 3 and the model.
The first thing that stands out in this one is EWU’s defensive deficiencies. The Eagles rank #328 in ShotQuality Defense and aren’t really good at anything on that side of the ball. They are #318 in Rim and 3 Rate, #279 in Shot Selection, #363 in Shot Making, #348 in Open 3 Rate, and #333 in Rim and 3 SQ PPP. The question becomes, if they are so bad on defense then how are they 16-1 in conference play? The reason is because of an offense that has carried them and luck.
First, Eastern Washington’s offense is the reason for their success this season as they rank #33 in Rim and 3 Rate, #80 in Shot Selection, among being efficient in other ShotQuality areas as well. However, EWU will have a tougher test than usual as they are facing a Montana St. team that is #75 in Adjusted ShotQuality Defense.
The other reason for EWU’s success this season has been luck. As displayed above, EWU is 8-0 straight up and 6-2 ATS when they are playing at home in conference games. However, Their ShotQuality ATS record is 0-8! ShotQuality projected that they shouldn’t have covered any of their home games, yet they are 6-2 ATS this year.
Displayed above is the regression analysis for EWU which is significant on both offense and defense! I think we will witness some of this regression tonight as they take on one of the best teams in the Big Sky tonight in Montana St. I played Montana St. both on the moneyline and against the spread so let’s hope for an outright winner here from the Bobcats.
About the Author
Max Hofmeyer is someone who eats, sleeps, and breathes college basketball. Like most gamblers, he doesn’t just watch the games for entertainment, he wants to make some money along the way. Max first became a subscriber of ShotQuality last year and posted his most profitable season yet. This season, with the help of ShotQuality, Max is 115-89-2 +17.1u on posted plays. Make sure to follow Max on Twitter!