by Justin Perri
The first day of Horizon League Conference Tournament action gets underway shortly. Here’s a quick what- to-know based on the ShotQuality metrics that stand out.
Conference Standings
Let’s set the scene with the standings. The Horizon League champions, and bid to the big dance, is one that ShotQuality’s advanced analytics indicate should be a multi-team race.
Youngstown State won the regular season title with a 15-5 record and will be the one-seed. But, three teams (N. Kentucky, Cleveland St. and UW Milwaukee) all finished just a step behind at 14-6 and no other team got to 12 wins in conference play.
SQ’s ratings on the four top regular season teams, as per the image above, are YSU 167, NKU 146, CSU 223, MIL 248. Interesting to note that Youngstown, Cleveland and Milwaukee all have negative Record Luck, a metric that indicates the percent difference between actual and SQ win percents. A dive into these teams would likely show multiple games that the shot-based metrics expected losses instead of wins. Milwaukee’s is notably high at -18.55, SQ expected them to have 5 more losses than they actually do. Northern Kentucky, the best rated team here, appears to have earned its record.
Detroit looks to be the sleeper, with an expected record of 17-13 instead of 12-18. They have Antoine Davis going for the all time scoring record, but they’ll also have to get out of the first round tonight. Let’s dive into those matchups…
8 Detroit vs 9 Fort Wayne
ShotQuality Bets Projection:
| Detroit | 75.4 | Purdue Fort Wayne | 77.3 |
Yeah that’s right, a win for the road team to open up some Horizon Madness. This line is currently set at -4.5 in favor of Detroit at home, and why shouldn’t it be, they’ve historically been better in their own gym and SQ thinks they’ve gotten unlucky there this year. In Conference play they went 5-5 at home but SQ expected 9-3, yet… the model still says IPFW is going to come out as the winner.
At first glance, this is likely explained by Detroit’s defense being categorically terrible. 296th in the nation in expected Points Per Possession (SQ PPP) allowed but IPFW’s isnt great either. IPFW is 346th in defending shots at the rim… those are kinda important…
Clearly this one is going to be an offensive battle, and the 153.5 total is reflective of that. SQ thinks that’s pretty fair, but the data points to an Under with Detroit’s home conference games leading to an expected record 7-3 on Under plays.
The last time these teams met here, Detroit won by 33. I don’t think this results in such a strong scenario given that its the post-season, but don’t be surprised if one team just doesn’t have the juice to keep up with the other and this game goes under due to a 10-15 point win scenario.
7 Wright St vs 10 Green Bay
ShotQuality Bets Projection:
| Wright St. | 79.7 | Green Bay | 60 |
This seems pretty fair, Green Bay is rough. The current line is 20.5 and the total is right at 139.5 so the prediction is spot on. Green Bay is the 360th team in ShotQualty’s ratings. Really can not get much worse than that. Wright St. should win easily. They play with the 4th highest cut rate in the nation, shoot a lot from the midrange and run in transition often. It will all overwhelm Green Bay who can defend none of that effectively. They’re 349th in Transition SQ PPP. Only hope here is if Wright State has mercy.
This is essentially a tune up game for the Raiders and Trey Calvin, who I have on my CBB best ball team so I hope this squad makes a cinderella type run. They could, they have the 15th best shot making in the nation. Meaning, pretty simply, they hit a lot of tough shots. Their defense can do what it needs to as well, pretty low Free Throw Rate allowed, not a lot of open looks from deep either – and that gets them into the top 30% nationally in defensive shot selection allowed.
This game doesn’t look like much of one to watch or bet on… unless you just enjoy watching Calvin play. Let’s talk about…
6 Robert Morris vs 11 IUPUI
ShotQuality Bets Projection:
| Robert Morris | 71.7 | IUPUI | 54.5 |
This game doesn’t look to be a barn burner either and the -14.5 line seems to be shaded towards people getting a bit excited about IUPUI. Maybe they should, the Jaguars went 18-11 ATS this season. SQ expected 20-9 ATS! They’ve been defying the market all season and its pretty clearly due to the only green spot on their offensive table; open threes.
Yes, you are reading that correctly, IUPUI is 25th nationally in open three rate and it has lead to them being rated 138th, higher than almost 200 other teams, in shot selection. What a thought. Open threes work. It’s what they’ll need to rely on to compete here with Robert Morris but IUPUI beat this team on Feb 23rd and only lost by 7 when they faced off on RMU’s floor back on Jan 9th.
That line was -15.5 at the close, so not much has analytically changed from the oddsmakers point of view. Maybe I’ll take a little spin on +14.5, this is one of those games where RMU likely only cares to win rather than cover. They should cover, according to ShotQuality’s projections, but IUPUI has been so fun and because of the number of 3s they take – they wont be fully out of this game until the buzzer sounds. Just note they went 0-14 on the road this season so don’t expect some type of miracle win. Personal favorite bet here is the Over.
Enjoy the Horizon!! Thanks for reading!!
Get ready for March Madness, SQ Bracket Tools and check out all the model’s plays for conference tournament season at ShotQualityBets.com!