By Max Hofmeyer
Welcome back to the first Max-a-Million of the greatest month of the year, March! A month that always delivers and provides endless entertainment and upsets. Not just March Madness, but the conference tournaments always deliver as well. One of my favorite things to do is to watch these smaller conferences fight for their lives just to go dancing with 68 teams! Currently we are 18-14 on the year and I’ve got 3 plays tonight so let’s dive into the games and start the month off right.
The Pick: OVER 151.5
I gave out over 155.5 when Alabama and Auburn met on February 11th and it was unfortunately a loser as they only scored 146 points. However, ShotQuality projected that there should have been 155 points in that matchup (see below) so I will be running it back here at a slightly lower total of 151.5.
Looking at the matchup breakdown below, ShotQuality is projecting this game to have about 156 points which I think is accurate. What I like about this is over, is how efficient these teams are on offense. Alabama is #2 in Adjusted ShotQuality Offense while Auburn is also an impressive #35. Both defenses that they will face are not as impressive. Auburn is #116 in Adjusted ShotQuality Defense while Alabama is ranking #49. ShotQuality does not have these defenses ranked as highly as other people out there in the college basketball community.
Free points are also very helpful when it comes to going over a total. These two teams are great at getting to the Free Throw line while simultaneously sending opponents to the line. Alabama’s offense is #28 in ShotQuality Free Throw Rate and Auburn is #77. Both teams are in the top 100 when it comes to getting to the stripe.
The Tigers and Tide also are sending opponents to the line frequently. Auburn’s defense is #325 in Free Throw Rate while Alabama’s defense is #227 out of a possible 363 teams. Both of these teams shoot above 70% from the line which is above average and should help us get some free points.
Lastly, I wanted to look at the regression analysis for each of these teams. Both are expected to see regression that will result in more points being scored. First, the image on the left is breaking down the regression analysis for Alabama. The Tide aren’t expected to see much change on offense, however they are expected to see significant regression on defense. The most significant being the 46% finishing at the rim compared to the ShotQuality projection of 57%. Auburn should be able to finish at the rim at a higher rate than the Tide have currently been allowing.
The image on the right is showing the regression analysis for Auburn. The Tigers are expected to see significant regression on both sides of the ball. Their PPP (Points Per Possession) on offense is 1.02 compared to the ShotQuality projection of 1.06. Similarly, on defense they are allowing 0.95 compared to a ShotQuality expected 1.05. Both of these teams should see a bump in points scored and allowed in tonight’s matchup.
The Pick: UNDER 146
For our next play, I am taking the under in this matchup between South Florida and Tulsa. As you can see below, ShotQuality is projecting this game to be a 69-67 win for USF which would put us well under the total while also covering the +14 for Tulsa. Ultimately I decided to go with the under rather than the Tulsa spread due to the fact the Golden Hurricanes are an abysmal 5-24 team with a 4-22-2 ATS record. Sometimes not betting a team is the best bet you can make.
The last time these teams met, USF throttled Tulsa winning 96-69. However, for this matchup I am not expecting USF to be that dominant again on the offensive end. Tulsa’s defense is actually above average ranking #128 in Adjusted ShotQuality Defense and specifically defend the 3 and the rim well. Tulsa’s Rim and 3 SQ PPP is ranked #15 on defense and will be facing a USF offense that is #279 in this offensive category. This is important as shots at the rim and from deep are the most valuable in basketball and USF is not efficient with these shots while Tulsa can defend them better than one might expect. I am thinking Tulsa is going to bounce back defensively here after giving up 96 last game.
Similarly, Tulsa’s offense is #358 in Rim and 3 SQ PPP and will be tasked against a USF defensive that is #13 in defending against these shots. Tulsa is also #345 in Shot Selection so nothing is going to come easily to Tulsa on offense which has been the story all year. This is Tulsa’s closer for the regular season so just show up, lose 68-56, and then go home.
The Pick: OVER 150.5
For my last play I am taking the over in this matchup between Grand Canyon who will be visiting Southern Utah. Both of these teams have been good to the over this year with SUU at 13-12 and the Lopes with a 19-7 over record. I am expecting this one to be a little higher than the ShotQuality projection.
First, I like the frequency that these teams are able to generate opportunities at the rim and from 3. SUU is #15 in ShotQuality Rim and 3 Rate on offense while GCU is #66. Both of these defenses are also allowing these opportunities frequently as SUU is #161 on defense and GCU is #220. If these teams can convert these high value shots, we should see a lot of offense in this one.
Similar to Alabama and Auburn, these teams generate contact frequently while simultaneously fouling a lot on defense. SUU is #8 in the nation in Free Throw Rate on offense while Grand Canyon’s defense is #208 in Free Throw Rate. Similarly, GCU’s offense is #53 in Free Throw Rate while Southern Utah’s defense is allowing a Free Throw Rate that ranks #229. Both of these teams take advantage of opportunities at the stripe shooting north of 73%.
Southern Utah likes to play at a faster pace so being at home and the favorite in this matchup hopefully they can control the pace and flow in this matchup. They are #14 in Adjusted Tempo per KenPom so the Lopes will be trying to play keep up all game. They have not played yet this season but I’d imagine the game flow to be at a fast pace leading to lots of points.
About the Author
Max Hofmeyer is someone who eats, sleeps, and breathes college basketball. Like most gamblers, he doesn’t just watch the games for entertainment, he wants to make some money along the way. Max first became a subscriber of ShotQuality last year and posted his most profitable season yet. This season, with the help of ShotQuality, Max is 118-92-2 +16.8u on posted plays. Make sure to follow Max on Twitter!