By Justin Perri
Fitting to start the day with the worst rated conference in college hoops. The NEC beats out the SWAC by about 15 spots on average, based on the SQ standings, to be the worst group in the nation. Who’s to say we can’t enjoy a single elimination tournament just because its objectively bad basketball from an efficiency standpoint. Not me. This ticket to the big dance is still real, and that’s what matters.
Let’s take a look at these rather brutal standings and see what we can find before action begins
That’s a whole lotta red… here’s how the seeding lines up with SQ
1. Merrimack (258)
2. FDU (286)
3. SFPA (358)
4. SHU (342)
5. Wagner (337)
6. CCU (349)
7. SFBK (343)
8. LIU (363)
The first few things I noticed with this conference is that the first two seeds are the best two teams in ShotQuality as well, but the third seed is the second worst.
This sums up the Northeast Conference rather well. There are two teams here that should be considered to get the bid, Merrimack and Fairleigh Dickinson. The rest, will probably be a bit of a free-for-all, as no teams besides the top two are ranked above 335th in SQ … aka they are all bottom 30 teams in college basketball. Yikes.
All eight eligible teams, sorry Stonehill, will be playing today with a 7pm ET tip time. Let’s dive into some of the numbers and SQ data that stands out from these matchups.
1 Merrimack vs 8 LIU
SQ Projects MER 74.4 to 58.8
Am I at fault for not paying better attention to this conference? Perhaps, but I’d imagine not many were aware of the drastic change in trajectory and momentum this Merrimack team has experienced.
The Warriors were losers of their first 13 Division 1 games. They snuck in 2 wins against Clark University and New England College for morale, but after a 1-14 start they completely turned their season around and have now won 12 of their last 14, and 8 straight, in conference play! A 0-13 team became the 1 seed in the NEC. Incredible stuff.
Merrimack’s reward for their efforts is a date with Long Island University, who they beat on February 2 by a score of 76 to 59 . ShotQuality graded that game as a 70 to 59 win with an 85% expected win probability for the Warriors. It was the first game that would start their aforementioned eight game run. These teams also met just days ago in Long Island and The Mack won by a score of 82-59, SQ loved that game expecting Merrimack to be victorious by a bigger margin of 92 to 68.
Today, these teams meet for a third time with a line of -17.5 and a total of 133.5. The third meeting is always tricky. SQ leans towards LIU but Merrimack’s defense is rated 45th in the nation based on shots allowed and it’s tough for me to see how LIU is going to get to 60 points.
The Mack has benefitted from playing weak opponents but their defensive SQ ratings are still pretty wild… they’re first in SQ PPP allowed in Midrange, Catch and Shoot 3PT, P&R Ball Screen, Off Screen and second in half court. They have the highest defensive turnover rate in the nation. It’s all just because the NEC is so so bad, but it’s impressive to see it play out statistically.
If you’re betting this game, you should probably take the points – there’s some dignity to be had here and Merrimack will probably be okay at 15 points instead of 20. LIU will happily fire up shots late to try to save face, because they’re used to it, and that’s what you want in a big dog. In games where they got more than 10 points, SQ expected this team to be 5-1 ATS (they went 3-3 in reality. I also like the over. Enjoy the show on this one if tuning in.
2 Fairleigh Dickinson vs 6 St. Francis Brooklyn
SQ Projects FDU 71.2 to 67.9
As much as I might like FDU to win this tournament, I agree with SQ and think this +9.5 line is probably too big. Travelling from Brooklyn to Teaneck, NJ is not much of a challenge and this SFNY team has been getting a bit unlucky this year, or maybe they’re just bad… idk here’s the data you be the judge
They are expected to be scoring 0.05 more points per possession based on this data, and notably, teams are shooting 39% from deep against SFNY when SQ expects 32%. If that defensive regression on 3s hits today, this game is is going to be closer. There’s a few other things to get excited about with SFNY, they’re one of the better rebounding and Rim & 3 rate teams in the conference, which is probably why SQ likes them. They went 3-5 ATS on the road in conference but the SQ Trend Finder rated those games as 6-2 xATS (based on SQ scores).
SFNY is going to look to limit FDU from deep, it’s their thing. They’re 2nd in fewest three-point attempts allowed on defense at 27.4% and also 11th in good defense against three point shooting. Their problems, they commit a lot of offensive turnovers and they are not efficient attacking nor defending the rim.
FDU is going to attempt to force a lot of defensive turnovers, and win the turnover battle in general. They attack the rim at a high frequency so St. Francis could be in trouble there, but they aren’t very efficient at it. 59th in frequency, 315th in efficiency at the rim on offense. Not what you want to see for FDU but they probably still will make it work inside.
These teams have also just played each other, Saint Francis lost in the same building as tonight by a score of 86 to 69 but shot quality projected that game to be a 71 to 70 contest. Fairleigh Dickinson lost to both Wagner and Central Connecticut on their own floor in the last month, so this is by no means a lock for the Knights. I see the points as pretty valuable here and will be betting on the Underdog to keep it close. I also like the Over in this contest.
3 St. Francis Pennsylvania vs 6 Central Connecticut
SQ Projects SFPA 71.2 to 63.2
I again have to agree with ShotQuality here, this game currently sits at a -4.5 line but it should be a larger spread. I played it at -3.5 at about 3am ET, but I don’t think the point difference is much of a big deal. Central Conn is going to struggle here.
CCSU has the worst shot selection in the conference, and thats saying a lot, good for an abysmal 14th worst nationwide. And their half court offense is second worst in the NEC with the second lowest rate of transition attempts. They just don’t manufacture good looks.
That’s not to say SFPA is some powerhouse, they’re certainly not, but what the Red Flash does well is defend the three. 52nd in D1 in defense against 3PT shooting per SQ. They’ve also figured out how to win at a good point in their season. Winning 4 of their last 6 contests entering today, this is looking like they’re in decent form at the right time. St Francis even beat the formidable FDU by 10 at home, and even though SQ said there was a bunch of luck involved… it might be better to be lucky than good.
Bottom line for me, personally, is that I simply just don’t trust Central Conn, they went 7-9 ATS on the road but SQ scores indicated they should have been 3-13 xATS in those games based on shots taken. I think this one gets to two possessions and feel comfortable laying the points. However, if you disagree and like Central Connecticut, I think you take them to win for the ML price. But let’s go SFPA!!
4 Sacred Heart vs 5 Wagner
SQ Projects SHU 67.2 to 66.7
Finally a true contest, this one is about as difficult to decide upon a winner as any low-major game that we will encounter this March. I’m going with Wagner +2.5 on the side and the Under. I prefer the Under if just taking one play, I got 130.5 last night but 128.5 should be fine. We’re playing this for a game that results around 118.
The last time the these two teams played, it was at Wagner and the game finished 68 to 58, SQ projected it to be 53 to 64 so we both had the total going lower and Sacred Heart earning a win while Wagner won by 10 points on the floor.
I think Wagner could again create a game where they win even if maybe they are not expected to, they are the 30th best team in D1 with defensive rebounding and 39th in offensive rebounding. They also force a lot of defensive turnovers, and have no problem slowing the game down. SQ has them 350th in tempo.
Sacred Heart, on the other hand, is a bad defensive rebounding team, but they are good at defending three point shooting. My best take on this game is that there’s a high percent chance ShotQuality disagrees with the actual winner of this game when it’s over, meaning there’s gonna be some crazy contested shots hit and some missed open looks. Just be prepared, because that’s essentially what the NEC will be about in all of these games, but Wagner at Sacred Heart profile as Under teams especially with a chance to go dancing on the line.
Thanks for reading and be on the look out for more previews today and this week, check out the Value Finder for all the model’s plays and sign up to get access to all our Bracket Tools in just a couple weeks.