By Max Hofmeyer
Welcome back to Max-a-Million picks where we have a short but quality slate of games today. A lot of mid-majors will be fighting to keep their seasons alive with survive and advance being their mantras. I too will be fighting as I unfortunately let down our Max-a-Millionaires on Saturday. Nonetheless, we sit at 22-19 for the season and are still positive so let’s find some winners. I’ve got 4 bets that I made today so let’s dive in.
I am starting the card off with this highly anticipated CAA matchup between Charleston and Towson. Charleston has had a tremendous season and will be hoping to keep their tourney hopes alive tonight with a win.
The Pick: TOWSON +4.5
This is the third matchup between these teams and similar to the first couple meetings, I think we have another close matchup tonight. ShotQuality has this game projected dead even with both teams scoring 74.5! I agree with the model here and although Charleston has been on an amazing run, I could see Towson winning this game.
Towson will have a good chance to win this game if they are able to make their shots from deep and take advantage of any opportunities Charleston gives them. ShotQuality really likes Towson’s ability from this area as they are #71 in Open 3 Rate while also being #10 in catch and shoot 3 efficiency. This team is dangerous generating 1.1 ShotQuality Per Possession Points from these opportunities. Towson shoots 37% from 3 on the year which puts them in the top 40 in the nation.
This will be the third matchup between these teams so I think it is important to take a look at these previous matchups. First, let’s take a look at the meeting that took place in Towson on December 31st which is posted in the image above. Charleston was able to win the game 76-74 in this close battle. However, ShotQuality projected that this should have been a 79-73 win for the Tigers at home.
The next matchup was on February 23rd at Charleston portrayed below. The Cougars were able to take care of business at home, winning by 8 points. The ShotQuality projection similarly had this game as an 8 point victory for Charleston, but by an amount of 80-72.
Ultimately, putting this game on a neutral floor I agree with the ShotQuality assessment of this matchup being even. Charleston will want to get out in transition while Towson is going to slow it down. If the Tigers are hitting from deep and can get out to a lead, I’d feel really good about them being able to control the tempo.
Making this bet pains me as I really want to see Charleston make the tournament but can’t let emotion get in the way of picks. Regardless of the outcome, the committee should let Charleston dance as it is good for the sport and other mid-majors in similar spots. I mean, do we really need 10 teams from the Big Ten?
Next, I am looking at this matchup between St. Mary’s and BYU in this WCC semifinal. This will be St. Mary’s first game in the WCC tournament as the 1 and 2 seeds automatically advanced to the semifinal. Other mid-major conferences should take note and reward their regular season winners, but that is a debate for another day.
The Pick: BYU +7
I am riding with the Cougars in this matchup and taking the points here. ShotQuality is projecting this one to be about a 67-64 win for the Gaels which would be a cover for us. I agree and think BYU can keep it close because of how balanced they are. Looking at the breakdown below, BYU on offense really doesn’t have any major flaws with each important category being green.
Randy Bennett and Mark Pope are two of the most underrated coaches in the nation so this one should be a good one as it has been all year. Below is the ShotQuality breakdown for the first matchup at BYU. The Gaels were able to squeak out a 1 point victory in that one but ShotQuality actually projected that BYU should have won. The ShotQuality projection had the Cougars winning by a score of about 58-53!
The next matchup between these two took place at St. Mary’s and is shown below. In this one the Gaels were able to win the game 71-65 in another close loss for BYU. However, ShotQuality projected this one to be about a 77-65 win for the Gaels.
I think this matchup is very similar to Charleston and Towson tonight. These are two opponents who are very familiar with each other and have been in close games all year. I think putting them on a neutral floor will only produce a similar result. I think the Gaels will be able to get the win but BYU will get the cover. This would likely create a rematch between Gonzaga and St. Mary’s, assuming the Zags take care of business.
For our last two plays, I will be looking at games in the Big Sky tournament (Montana vs Idaho St.) and Southland tournament (New Orleans vs Southeastern Louisiana).
I am going to use this time and breakdown to talk about the ShotQuality Value Finder as it is so useful in games like this. I will still be posting the matchup breakdown images of each game for those that wish to utilize it. So let me post the plays, then I will continue the written portion underneath the New Orleans breakdown.
The Pick: MONTANA -4.5
The Pick: NEW ORLEANS +5
As promised above, I’m not going to dive into these games as much but rather talk more generally about ShotQuality. One of the first things I do to start my day is look at the ShotQuality Value Finder. This tool is so useful when it comes to finding projected value on the betting board. It is especially helpful for games like these where you might not be familiar with the teams. ShotQuality is just as knowledgeable about New Orleans as they are Purdue.
If you look at the screenshot above, all of our Max-a-Million picks are there (New Orleans, Towson, BYU, and Montana). For example, let’s take a look at the New Orleans game at the top which has the most value. ShotQuality is projecting New Orleans to win by about 3 points tonight while the consensus line available is New Orleans +5. This disparity between SQ projection and line available is creating 8.4 points of value.
Any value of 4+ points (5+ for totals) and the SQ Value Finder will clearly mark it as a “play” in the right column indicating that it is a bet. The SQ Value Finder is currently 2352-2027-64 this season on plays which would be +122.3u! Now obviously that is A TON of games and most people aren’t going to want to place over 4,000 bets in a season. My goal for Max-a-Million is to find the winners within the value to give out to the people along with some breakdown and analysis. My plays don’t always align with the model, but most of the time will.
I hope this helps and feel free to tweet at any of us at SQ with questions or if you just want to bash me for my terrible performance Saturday. Happy March everyone, enjoy the best time of the year!
About the Author
Max Hofmeyer is someone who eats, sleeps, and breathes college basketball. Like most gamblers, he doesn’t just watch the games for entertainment, he wants to make some money along the way. Max first became a subscriber of ShotQuality last year and posted his most profitable season yet. This season, with the help of ShotQuality, Max is 130-106-2, +13.4u on posted plays. Make sure to follow Max on Twitter!