by Justin Perri
The Metro Atlantic is one of my personal favorite conferences to cover and discuss, maybe its that nobody else really cares for this group because they think its Iona and then a bunch of trash. Or maybe its because they’re mostly located within an hour of my apartment. Either way, I think this is one of the most intriguing tournaments due to the lack of predictability. The top seeded historically has struggled to be the one accepting the bid to the dance.
Will that occur this season with Iona? probably not.
They are pretty far above everyone else, specifically in their offensive abilities. I fully expect them to break the curse a bit here, their path just isn’t difficult. Let’s break down their game tonight quickly.
1 Iona vs 8 Mount St Mary’s
SQ Projects: Iona 73.8 – 59.7
Looks like we agree with the line set at 14 but have model value on the Under here today. Last time these teams faced off, MSM was winning at the half before Pitino’s Gaels stormed back, winning the the 2H by 17 en route to a 12 point victory. I tend to think that will be on their minds, they came out slow and almost took a bad loss. Now, on a neutral floor in Atlantic City, I think the best way to play this game is to play Iona 1H -7.5.
I like Iona to come out hot and end this game before it even starts. There might be a bit of a spot here for MSM to back door a cover, so I’ll stay off the full game, but I think Iona wants this game to be over by half time. I think they will get it done.
I mean, this is quite literally the best team in the conference vs the worst. MSM snuck into this round over Canisius on a SQ Loss.
I think that type of luck for MSM is likely not going to be present against this Iona team that locks down transition, 68th best transition PPP allowed, and doesn’t allow open threes, 93rd best open 3 rate allowed.
The Gaels may lay off the gas in the second half but I think they come out in peak form and lay this one to rest quickly. Get the nice -7.5 number and join me in a 20 min MAAC sweat. Good luck!
Saint Peters vs Rider and Tomorrow’s Quarterfinals will be posted here by 8:30PM ET (NEVERMIND IM TIRED SORRY)