By Max Hofmeyer
Welcome back to Max-a-Million picks as the season is winding down and the big dance is right around the corner. On Monday we were able to go 2-1-1, putting us at 24-20-1 on the season. Not too shabby but could always be better so let’s get to work. I’ve got three plays in store for today and will be looking to post another winning card for the week.
For my first play I am looking at this MW tournament game between Fresno St. and Colorado St. Both these teams finished 6-12 in conference play and will be looking for a tournament miracle to extend their seasons.
The Pick: UNDER 133.5
ShotQuality is projecting this game to be a 67.5 to 59.5 win for Colorado St. which would be 127 points. SQ is seeing some value here on the under so we are going to go ahead and ride with the model.
These teams have very similar identities which both lead me to like the under. Both of their defenses are ranked higher than the opposing offenses they will be facing. CSU is ranked #75 in Adjusted ShotQuality Defense and will be facing a Fresno offense that is #102. Similarly, Fresno is ranked #42 in Adjusted ShotQuality Defense and will be facing a CSU offense that is #98.
They have very similar identities which I like as it makes them more predictable. Both have better defenses compared to their offenses, neither team wants to play fast, and both are only a few spots apart in the ShotQuality rankings. Per SQ, Fresno is the 79th best team in the nation while CSU is 83rd.
This will be the third matchup between these teams and I have attached the scores and ShotQuality results above and below. First, the matchup above had 136 points in that one which would be greater than our total. However, if you look at the Team SQ Points Column, SQ projected this to be a 64-61 game which would be an under.
In the next matchup, CSU was victorious again but by a score of 60-57 which would put us comfortably under the total. What is comforting about this result is that the SQ result was similar to the actual result with respect to the total. SQ projected that their should have been 122 points in this matchup.
I think this game will be close like it has been all season between these opponents. I also like that this game has an early start and both offenses could come out slow. ShotQuality has had a good read on this matchup so let’s see if we can get a winner with the under in this matchup.
Next, I am looking at this CUSA matchup between FIU and Louisiana Tech. Both of these teams struggled in conference play and will be looking to get some momentum with a win today.
The Pick: OVER 142
I like the over in this one and so does the model. ShotQuality is projecting this game to be an LT victory of 78.3-69.4, which would be about 148 points. Both of these teams have been good to the overs as FIU is 16-13 and LT is 16-11. Let’s keep that streak going with a high scoring affair today.
What I like about this game is the ShotQuality DNA of the Panthers from FIU. If you look in the image above, you may have noticed the bloody red that is the FIU defense. SQ does not respect this defense at all as they rank #246 in the nation. Specifically, they are terrible at the rim and from 3. The FIU defense is #360 in ShotQuality Rim and 3 Rate and #356 in Rim and 3 PPP. Not only do they give up these high quality opportunities often, but they are inefficient, allowing opponents to convert at a high rate.
The FIU offense on the other hand, is viewed much differently per ShotQuality. The Panthers are #132 in Adjusted SQ Offense which is much more respectable than their defense. What was shocking, was to discover how good this team is at Shot Selection and Rim and 3 SQ PPP. FIU is #3 in SQ Shot Selection and #2 in Rim and 3 SQ PPP! This team is built for overs and that is why SQ has projected that the overs should be 18-11 in FIU games this year.
For our last game, I will be staying in the CUSA tournament as Western Kentucky is playing UTEP in a Wednesday night showdown. Hopefully we can make it a 2-0 performance in this conference!
The Pick: OVER 134
I will be betting the over here again for this CUSA matchup. ShotQuality is projecting this game to be a win for WKU by a score of 73-69.4 which is about 142 points putting us over the total in this one.
What I like about these teams is their O/U record, SQ O/U record, and how the model agrees with the results of these games. WKU is 16-13 to the over and SQ projected them to be 18-11. Similarly, UTEP is 17-11 to the over and SQ projected them to be 19-10. This makes me feel good about betting the over here, especially when the model is projecting 142 points.
Both offenses will have a significant edge at the rim and from 3. As I have mentioned so many times before, these shots are so valuable! Western Kentucky is very efficient with these attempts as they are ranked #30 in Rim and 3 SQ PPP. UTEP’s defense against these opportunities is very poor as the are ranked #321 in defending rim and 3 shots.
The UTEP offense is also very good at the rim and from 3 as they are #57 on offense. WKU also can not defend these attempts well as they are ranked #331 in defending rim and 3 shots. Both of these teams are good at finishing opportunities and don’t defend well against these high quality looks. This is a great recipe for an over so hopefully it plays out how we expect and we can cash another CUSA over!
Good luck to all my Max-a-Millionaires on your bets today and for the remainder of the season. The first week of March is in the books and I can’t believe we will have a bracket next week. Enjoy every second of the greatest time of the year, I know I will!
About the Author
Max Hofmeyer is someone who eats, sleeps, and breathes college basketball. Like most gamblers, he doesn’t just watch the games for entertainment, he wants to make some money along the way. Max first became a subscriber of ShotQuality last year and posted his most profitable season yet. This season, with the help of ShotQuality, Max is 135-108-3, +16.2u on posted plays. Make sure to follow Max on Twitter!