| Team | SQ | Torv | Has | KP | NET | AVG | |
| 1. | Saint Mary’s | 12 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 8.00 |
| 2. | Gonzaga | 13 | 10 | 4 | 10 | 9 | 9.20 |
| 3. | San Diego State | 28 | 8 | 13 | 15 | 16 | 16.00 |
| 4. | Utah State | 46 | 26 | 22 | 23 | 21 | 27.60 |
| 5. | FAU | 51 | 35 | 28 | 28 | 15 | 31.40 |
| 6. | Boise State | 69 | 30 | 32 | 29 | 27 | 37.40 |
| 7. | Nevada | 61 | 57 | 41 | 39 | 36 | 46.80 |
| 8. | Liberty | 77 | 40 | 40 | 46 | 43 | 49.20 |
| 9. | New Mexico | 67 | 46 | 62 | 49 | 50 | 54.80 |
| 10. | UAB | 55 | 58 | 58 | 58 | 58 | 57.40 |
| 11. | North Texas | 90 | 47 | 65 | 47 | 39 | 57.60 |
| 12. | Drake | 105 | 42 | 50 | 62 | 53 | 62.40 |
| 13. | Oral Roberts | 97 | 79 | 60 | 67 | 44 | 69.40 |
| 14. | Charleston | 87 | 64 | 81 | 73 | 51 | 71.20 |
| 15. | VCU | 81 | 68 | 66 | 76 | 67 | 71.60 |
| 16. | BYU | 74 | 75 | 68 | 75 | 84 | 75.20 |
| 17. | Dayton | 108 | 62 | 57 | 74 | 77 | 75.60 |
| 18. | Sam Houston St. | 101 | 67 | 85 | 69 | 59 | 76.20 |
| 19. | Santa Clara | 56 | 78 | 75 | 92 | 85 | 77.20 |
| 20. | Yale | 107 | 81 | 69 | 71 | 62 | 78.00 |
| 21. | UNLV | 59 | 94 | 96 | 88 | 90 | 85.40 |
| 22. | Bradley | 110 | 84 | 76 | 85 | 73 | 85.60 |
| 23. | Utah Valley | 125 | 76 | 79 | 79 | 74 | 86.60 |
| 24. | Kent State | 119 | 86 | 89 | 80 | 69 | 88.60 |
| 25. | Iona | 149 | 66 | 93 | 78 | 66 | 90.40 |
The top ten in this week’s Mid-Major Top 25 remains the same, but the Utah State Aggies jumped up two spots after a road win at UNLV and a double-digit win over Boise State in the regular season finale.
Yale, the favorite to win the Ivy League, jumped into the top 20, taking the place of a Bradley team that got trounced 77-51 in the Missouri Valley Conference championship. Drake, the team that downed the Bradley Braves, jumped six spots after punching their ticket to March Madness.
Despite winning the SoCon, Furman drops out of the top 25, while Utah Valley returns after a one-week hiatus. UVU has real postseason aspirations, finishing the regular season 24-7 and first in the conference standings. Below, we will highlight each team’s ShotQuality record.
Saint Mary’s (23-9)
The Gaels have two more wins than their actual record indicates, although they remain a top-ten team on all significant analytical websites. However, they are 3-5 in games they were supposed to lose based on ShotQuality, including an expected road win at Loyola Marymount turned loss.
Gonzaga (21-11)
The Bulldogs have one of the best record-luck ratings among teams expected to be in the Field of 68. A lot of the luck stems from early season wins over Michigan State, Kentucky, and Xavier, all expected losses based on SQ.
San Diego State (18-11)
Like Gonzaga, the Aztecs have a much better actual record than their SQ record. They are 5-4 in games they were expected to lose, including back-to-back wins over UNLV and Fresno State in mid-February.
Utah State (16-14)
Continuing the trend of the previous two teams, USU has an SQ win percentage of 20 points less than their current winning percentage heading into the Mountain West Conference Tournament. They should have gotten swept in their last road trip at Wyoming and UNLV, but the Aggies snuck away with wins despite ShotQuality giving them less than a 40% chance to win, either.
FAU (21-8)
Their ShotQuality record is still awe-inspiring, but if it mirrored their actual record, they wouldn’t have a chance at an at-large bid come Selection Sunday. However, all their luck came from the early part of the season, suggesting they are playing some of their best basketball right now.
Boise State (16-14)
Boise looked to clinch a March Madness birth with a home win against San Diego State last week, but some massive luck during a stretch of three games may have saved them from sweating it out on Selection Sunday. They beat Fresno State, Colorado State, and Air Force in late January. In all three games, they had a 45% chance or less to win those games based on ShotQuality.
Nevada (15-15)
The Wolfpack have two separate stretches this season where they received blessings from lady luck. They started the season 4-0, but ShotQuality expected them to be 1-3 heading into a clash with Kansas State in late November. They also went 3-3 in their last six expected losses based on ShotQuality.
Liberty (23-8)
The first team on the list with favorable record luck is also the only one guaranteed to miss out on March Madness. They fell to Kennesaw State in the A-Sun championship despite an SQ final score of 79-66 (star Darius McGhee had an expected score of nine more points).
New Mexico (18-13)
The top teams in the MWC have major luck in the record department, and New Mexico is no exception. Despite some early season record luck over tourney caliber teams, they expected to beat CSU in early March, a 92-84 loss.
UAB (21-9)
With a one-win difference in their actual record, The Blazers are finally starting to get the ball to bounce their way late in the season. They beat UTEP and UTSA on the road in mid-February despite ShotQuality giving them less than a 50% chance to win either game.
North Texas (17-12)
The Mean Green had a huge run of record luck in February, winning four straight games that, based on ShotQuality, looked like losses. Despite winning ten of their last 11, North Texas will need to win the C-USA Tournament to feel good about going dancing in March.
Drake (19-14)
ShotQuality had them going 1-2 against Bradley this year, but they beat them in the championship, an expected loss, to punch their ticket to the big dance. Shockingly, ShotQuality had them going 0-3 in the conference tourney, which they won.
Oral Roberts (20-10)
The Golden Eagles went 3-3 in games ShotQuality had them losing, but in the biggest matchup against St. Thomas in the Summit League Conference Tournament, they snuck away with the win. Oral will be a popular pick to bust brackets in the big dance, especially after what they did two seasons ago to Ohio State and Florida.
Charleston (25-8)
Like FAU, CofC had such an impressive season that luck had something to do with it. However, they won ten in a row, all of which ShotQuality had them winning.
VCU (19-12)
The Rams were blessed in January, going 4-2 in games ShotQuality expected them to lose, including wins over Dayton and Richmond. However, they have six straight real and SQ wins heading into the conference tourney.
BYU (18-14)
Despite having a positive record of luck, most of their projected wins turned losses came against middle-of-the-pack teams in the West Coast Conference. The one outlier was a late January contest against Saint Mary’s, an eventual 57-56 loss.
Dayton (17-14)
The Flyers have played 15 games this season where the ShotQuality expected result, and the actual result was different regarding win-loss. However, they went 1-7 in games projected to be within two scores.
Sam Houston State (16-10)
A lot of Sam Houston State’s misfortune in record luck comes from expected final scores to be closer than the actual final indicated. However, SQ expected them to lose their last two games, including a one-point loss to ACU the previous week.
Santa Clara (19-12)
With a two-win difference in the actual record, Santa Clara fell to San Francisco in double OT in the WCC tourney despite SQ projecting a two-point victory. That’s a brutal way for their season to end.
Yale (17-8)
The favorite to win the Ivy League, Yale is projected to beat Cornell by one point on a neutral court on Saturday.