By Max Hofmeyer
Welcome back fellow Max-a-Millionaires for this Saturday edition of Max-a-Million picks. On Wednesday we were able to go a perfect 3-0, putting us at 27-20 on the season. Those who have been following along on twitter know that we are up 10u since the last Max-a-Million post on Wednesday. We’ve been absolutely crushing it and I will be attempting the perfect week (7 straight winning days) on this Championship Saturday. I’ve got 3 plays locked and loaded to fire off today, so let’s dive right in.
For the first play of the day, I am looking at this A10 semi-final between Dayton and Fordham. Both crowds have traveled well for these schools which is of no surprise for the loyal Flyers who will always travel, no matter the location.
The Pick: DAYTON -5.5
Fordham has had an excellent season improving from 2-12 in 2021 (Covid Season), 16-16 in 2022, and 25-7 this year! No denying this program has made major strides this season, but I think that season comes to an end today. Not only will Fordham go down, but I am laying the points here as I think Dayton could win by double digits.
If you look at the ShotQuality breakdown above, SQ is projecting this to be about a 71-57 victory for the Flyers which would be a comfortable cover. Specifically, I really like the edge here for Dayton’s defense. The Flyers are #113 in Adjusted SQ Defense which is good but nothing special. However, they really excel in two of the most important areas in my opinion when it comes to SQ statistics. Their defense is elite when it comes to SQ Shot Selection and Rim and 3 SQ PPP.
The Dayton defense ranks #10 in Shot Selection which will give the Fordham offense fits all day. SQ Shot Selection grades the efficiency of the average player in any given shot. So the Dayton defense is the 10th best team in the nation when it comes to contesting shots and not allowing opponents to take easy shots.
The Flyers defense is also elite when it comes to Rim and 3 SQ PPP where they rank #5. Rim and 3 SQ PPP is the calculated efficiency of each team when they attempt a shot at the rim or from 3. This is important as shots at the rim and from 3 are the most valuable attempts in basketball! Good news for our Flyers, they are 5th in defending these attempts. If you like defense, watching Dayton today should bring you joy.
I am declaring this game between UAB and Florida Atlantic a television appointment for all. If you need a note to get out of any obligation, I will gladly sign one because you need to be in front of a TV at 8:30 for this CUSA final.
The Pick: UAB -1
Those who have been following me on Twitter know we had the Blazers yesterday, along with a future to win the conference! Well I am taking Jelly Walker and company here -1 as ShotQuality is projecting this one to be about a 77-69 win for UAB.
I know I just hyped up Dayton’s defense for about 3 paragraphs but this is going to be all about the UAB offense today. The Blazers are #33 in Adjusted SQ Offense, #23 in Shot Selection, and #8 in Rim and 3 SQ PPP. Just like I talked about earlier, those areas specifically are so important to me when it comes to evaluating a team.
The Owls are no slouch in those areas on offense either though. FAU is #68 in Adjusted SQ Offense, #45 in Shot Selection, and #80 in Rim and 3 SQ PPP. Normally those are pretty good numbers to get the job done, however it won’t be enough for this lethal UAB team.
Jelly Walker for UAB unfortunately missed some time this season which put a damper on their regular season hopes. However, in the screenshot attached above, is the UAB performance since his first game back on February 2nd.
The Blazers are 10-1 since his return, and as you can see they have only been getting better the healthier he has gotten. FAU may have won the regular season title, but I think UAB gets the tournament win and most importantly, an automatic bid to go dancing!
For our final play, I will betting this game between UC Santa Barbara and Cal St. Fullerton. This game is the Big West Championship and whoever wins will get an automatic bid and be representing the Big West in March Madness.
The Pick: UC SANTA BARBARA -2.5
To end the nightcap, I will be laying 2.5 here with the Gauchos. ShotQuality is projecting this one to be a win for UCSB by a score of 74-63.
UCSB is #204 in Adjusted SQ Offense and will be facing the CSF defense that ranks #120 in Adjusted SQ Defense. At first glance that looks tough, however, today’s card has a common theme if you look at the breakdown above. Although UCSB offense has been average, they are better in those important categories discussed before.
The Gauchos are #151 in Shot Selection and #79 in Rim and 3 SQ PPP. These are both areas that are better than the overall offensive rating, which is why SQ likes them to win by double digits. We wouldn’t be on this run if it wasn’t for the model, so no reason not to trust the process here.
Going to plug the SQ podcast here as well. If you check out the 57 minute mark, the guys breakdown the Big West preview and our very own Alec Musa will have boots on the ground at this game in Vegas. He liked the Gauchos to win preflop, so congrats to anyone who tailed that future. Let’s finish the job here UCSB, but most importantly, cover that spread!
About the Author
Max Hofmeyer is someone who eats, sleeps, and breathes college basketball. Like most gamblers, he doesn’t just watch the games for entertainment, he wants to make some money along the way. Max first became a subscriber of ShotQuality last year and posted his most profitable season yet. This season, with the help of ShotQuality, Max is 154-116-3, +26.4u on posted plays. Make sure to follow Max on Twitter!