By Max Hofmeyer
Welcome back fellow Max-a-Millionaires as I am pleased to announce that we have a bracket and I love the board. Look at it, breathe it in, and enjoy every second of the Madness.
Our last Max-a-Million we were able to post a 2-1 day and complete the perfect week (7 straight winning days). That puts Max-a-Million picks at 29-21 (58%) so far this season and we aren’t done yet! Those of you following me on Twitter have been killing it with me so let’s keep that going. However, I couldn’t do it on my own as ShotQuality is always showing us the way to help us find an edge. I’ve got two bets for the First Four games so let’s jump right in.
For our first bet I am looking at this Tuesday matchup between Mississippi St. and Pittsburgh. Both of these teams flirted with the bubble but were ultimately able to get an invitation to go dancing. The winner of this one will have 6 seed Iowa St. waiting for them.
The Pick: MISS ST -1.5
ShotQuality is projecting this game to be Miss St. win by a score of about 67-61. This would be both a win and cover for Chris Jans and the Bulldogs. The reason I like Miss St. here is how bad of a matchup this is for Pitt and good for Miss St.
It is no secret that Miss St. struggles on offense and it is why they have been on that bubble all year. However, they might not be as bad as perhaps advertised or observed when watching them play.
Miss St. ranks #28 in Adjusted SQ Offense, #96 in Shot Selection and #102 in Rim and 3 SQ PPP. These numbers aren’t great but you have to take into consideration who they have been playing. In the image below, I wanted to take a look at both the ACC and SEC.
The average adjDEF SQ score for the SEC defenses is 0.98 compared to Pitt who is 1.02 which is #157 in the nation. So Miss St. should be able to be more efficient offensively playing Pitt compared to their typical SEC foes.
I also love this matchup for Miss St. on the defensive end as well. Looking at the conference comparison again, the average SEC adjOFF SQ rating is 1.15. Despite having a rating that high, the Miss St. defense has an elite rating of 0.92 which is #13 in the nation.
The Bulldogs are now tasked with playing a Pitt team that has an Adjusted SQ Offensive rating of 1.11 which is ranked #56 in Division 1 and less than the average SEC offense.
Pitt has had some record luck this year, outperforming based on what ShotQuality has expected. As portrayed below, Pitt is 22-11 on the year but SQ projected that they should be 18-15. I think Miss St. is able to expose this Pitt team here in a tough matchup.
This is just a terrible matchup for Jeff Capel’s Panthers who sputtered down the stretch losing 3 of their last 4 games. This is a Miss St. defense that will suffocate opponents and I like them to do that here. The Bulldogs do it without fouling as well as they have a SQ Free Throw Rate that ranks #76 on defense. The model likes Miss St. here by multiple possessions and so do I, let’s go Bulldogs!
For our next play, I am looking at this Wednesday matchup between Arizona St. and Nevada. We’ve got two west coast teams who find themselves playing in Dayton for a chance to take on TCU.
The Pick: ARIZONA ST -2
ShotQuality is projecting this to be a win for the Sun Devils by a score of 74-69. Similar to our first play, I really like this matchup for ASU and will be laying the short number. ShotQuality has ASU ranked #52 and Nevada at #70.
Looking at the matchup breakdown above, it is a mixed bag of green and red for both of these squads. However, as I have talked about before, I love teams that have an edge in SQ Shot Selection and Rim and 3 SQ PPP.
As a reminder, Shot Selection is how much more efficiently a team is performing compared to an average player taking each shot. This is one of the green areas for the ASU offense as they rank #97 and will be facing a poor Nevada defense who ranks #261 in SQ Shot Selection. The Nevada offense ranks #186 in Shot Selection and will be facing an ASU defense that is #176 so no edge there for Nevada.
The other important area I look at is Rim and 3 SQ PPP which is the calculated efficiency of each team when they attempt a shot at the rim or from three. This is important as these are the most valuable attempts in basketball.
This is another area where ASU will have an advantage as they rank #46 in Rim and 3 SQ PPP and will be facing a Nevada defense that is #240 against these attempts. The Sun Devils should be able to convert on these opportunities at the rim and from 3 against a Nevada team that doesn’t defend these attempts well.
The Nevada offense ranks #181 in Rim and 3 SQ PPP and will be facing the ASU defense that is #155 against these attempts so a slight edge for the Sun Devils here too.
Lastly, Nevada also has had some record luck this season just like we saw with Pitt. Nevada is 21-10 but SQ projected that the Wolf Pack should have gone 16-15 this season.
Similar to Pitt, I think Nevada gets exposed in this matchup and sent home packing. Let’s just hope that if both Miss St. and ASU can get the wins, they also do their job and cover for us as well. I’m sure you have heard it before, but good teams win and great teams cover!
About the Author
Max Hofmeyer is someone who eats, sleeps, and breathes college basketball. Like most gamblers, he doesn’t just watch the games for entertainment, he wants to make some money along the way. Max first became a subscriber of ShotQuality last year and posted his most profitable season yet. This season, with the help of ShotQuality, Max is 159-119-3, +28.1u on posted plays. Make sure to follow Max on Twitter!