Nothing is more romantic in basketball than a game winning buzzer beater. As the ball hangs in the air for what seems like an eternity and the crowd goes silent, everything you hoped for or feared relies on this one shot.
As the buzzer sounds, one fan base celebrates in a euphoric manner while the other shouts and even cries in disbelief of what just happened. History has been made, for better or for worse.
Here at ShotQuality, we have taken any bias out of the equation, displaying a calculated expected field goal percentage on some of the game’s most iconic game-winning shots. Our calculations are measured by up to 90 different variables, but most important are the following:
Who’s taking the shot? (A Damian Lillard step back 3 will be of higher than a Shaq step back 3)
What type of shot is it? (A dunk will be of higher quality than a deep midrange)
How close are the defenders? (A shot with 11 feet to the closest defender compared to a shot with 6 inches away from the nearest defender will typically be of higher quality)
The Top 5 NCAA College Basketball Buzzer Beaters since 2010:
The following iconic CBB buzzer beaters, since 2010, are ranked in order of highest to lowest probability of going in:
5. Kemba Walker Step Back Midrange to Win Big East Tournament (3/10/2011)
ShotQuality Field Goal%: 41%
Most Impactful Variables:
✅ Step Back Long Midrange 21.3 FT from hoop
✅ Nearest Defender Distance: 11.5 FT
✅ Average player makes that 36% of the time
✅ Kemba is 5% more efficient than the average shooter at that shot
4. Bronson Koenig Nails the Corner 3PT to Send Wisconsin to Sweet 16 (3/20/2016)
ShotQuality Field Goal%: 35%
Most Impactful Variables:
✅ Off the Dribble Corner 3PT 21.1 FT from hoop
✅ Nearest Defender Distance: 1.6 FT
✅ Average player makes that shot 32% of the time
✅ Bronson is 5% more efficient than the average shooter at that shot
3. Austin Rivers Drills the Off the Bounce 3PT to Bury Rival UNC
ShotQuality Field Goal%: 34%
✅ Off the Dribble 3PT 22.5 FT from hoop
✅Nearest Defender Distance: 3.2 FT
✅ Average player makes that shot 34% of the time
2. Christian Watford Takes Down #1 Kentucky
ShotQuality Field Goal%: 34%
✅ Catch and Shoot 3PT 25 FT from hoop
✅ Nearest Defender Distance: 2.6 FT
✅ 2nd Nearest Defender Distance: 3.5 FT
✅ Average player makes that shot 24% of the time
✅ Watford is 6% more efficient than the average shooter at that shot
1. Paul Jesperson Hits Half Courter to Take Down #6 Texas
ShotQuality Field Goal%: 15%
✅ Off the Dribble 42 FT from hoop
✅ Nearest Defender Distance: 5.6 FT
✅ Average player makes that shot 14.6% of the time