By Max Hofmeyer
This is it fellow Max-a-Millionaires, we have made it! It is tournament time and there is nothing better than the Thursday and Friday of the first round. Complete mayhem and hoops all day for the next 48 hours. These are notoriously unproductive days for the American workforce so wiggle your mouse and watch some hoops all day. Maybe even take the day off because you deserve it! I have got 4 plays in store for the opening round of 64 games, so let’s jump right in.
Our first play of the day will be from this afternoon matchup between Virginia and Furman. The Paladins of Furman are the 13 seed and will be looking to try and upset 4 seeded Virginia. This is the first game that will be on TruTv so make sure you know what channel number it is (recurring March Madness joke).
The Pick: FURMAN +5.5
I am going to be riding with the Paladins here and taking the points with Furman. ShotQuality is projecting this one to be about a 5 point win for UVA putting it right at the spread. Ultimately, I think this game is a tad closer than the current projection for a couple reasons.
First, I really like the Furman offense and style that they play. Furman is a team that attacks the rim and attempts threes frequently. The Paladins offense takes 89.1% of their shots either at the rim or from three which is the 6th highest rate in the nation. This is so important as these shots are the most valuable in basketball.
Furman does more than just create opportunities from three and at the rim frequently. They also are able to convert these attempts at an efficient rate. They have an SQ Rim and 3 PPP rating of 1.1 which is ranked 124th. This is the calculated efficiency of each team when attempting a shot at the rim or from three.
Furman is a team that is constantly looking for the best shot which is another reason I like this team. Furman is the 22nd best team in the country when it comes to SQ Shot Selection. SQ Shot Selection measures how much more efficiently a team is performing compared to an average player taking each shot.
Virginia and Tony Bennett will always throw a good defense at an opponent. The Cavaliers are ranked #25 in Adjusted ShotQuality Defense. However, two areas that Virginia struggles with on defense compared to their overall rating is what Furman is best at. The UVA defense is #74 in SQ Shot Selection and #117 in Rim and 3 SQ PPP. These are both areas that Furman should be able to exploit and stay in this game.
I think Furman has a chance to keep this game close and possibly get the upset. UVA is going to try and slow this game down so each possession is worth more than a typical Furman game. This doesn’t scare me though because Furman is a team that can knock down shots. They are shooting an impressive 59% with their 2pt attempts. That is ranked #1 in the nation, as nobody is better! Look for the Paladins to possibly advance to round of 32.
Next up on the card is this 15 vs 2 matchup between Arizona and Princeton. Princeton gets the automatic bid after upsetting the Ivy League favorites Yale. Arizona is also coming off a conference championship where they were victorious over UCLA.
The Pick: ARIZONA -14.5
I will be laying the big number in this one and taking the Wildcats to win by a large margin. ShotQuality is projecting this one to be a win for Arizona by about 18 points which would be a cover. Laying big numbers like this is not something I like to do often as March Madness is all about the underdogs, but Arizona plays at a style where I am comfortable laying it here.
Princeton is just totally out matched on defense and will have no answer for Tubelis and Ballo inside. The 7 footers should be able to take advantage of a Princeton team that is #272 in Adjusted ShotQuality Defense.
Princeton defense ranks #223 in SQ Shot Selection and #246 in Rim and 3 SQ PPP. These are obviously two areas that I talked about being very important during the Virginia and Furman write up. Arizona plays at the 9th fastest pace in the nation and I don’t expect that to change no matter who they are playing.
This Arizona defense is also very underrated coming in at #27 per ShotQuality. Their length and athleticism should give Princeton fits all day. The Princeton offense relies on the 3 ball a lot but this is something Arizona defends well. The Wildcats defense is #41 in the country in Open 3 Rate allowed on defense.
I also have a player prop on FanDuel I like in this one. Kerr Kriisa at +154 to make 3 or more 3 pointers in this one. This won’t count towards the record but I did bet it myself. Looking at the breakdown in this one, Princeton is ranked #319 on defense in SQ Open 3 Rate. This should create plenty of opportunities for both Ramey and Kriisa. I don’t mind either of them but ultimately I went with Kerr as he is looking to shoot more than Ramey.
Overall this matchup isn’t pretty for Princeton and I would be shocked if the Tigers are able to keep this remotely close. Arizona should be able to pick the score and I wouldn’t be surprised if they find themselves in the 90s on the scoreboard.
Next up is another 15 seed vs 2 seed matchup that is featuring Texas and Colgate. Texas was able to throttle Kansas in the Big 12 championship and will now be tasked with the Patriot League winner, Colgate.
The Pick: COLGATE +13.5
Now you might be a little confused why I am choosing to take Colgate and not Princeton as both are similar underdogs in a 15 vs 2 matchup. Well hear me out as we dive into this one.
For starters, ShotQuality is projecting this to be about a 12 or 13 point win for the Longhorns. I think this is accurate and it might even be a little closer. Certainly the Raiders will be outmatched like Princeton, but they do excel in a couple key areas that might allow them to keep it close.
The Colgate offense will be what keeps them in this game. Although they are ranked #189 per SQ, they are better in some of the more important areas. One of these is SQ Shot Selection as they rank #94 and will be facing Texas defense that is #73 in Shot Selection.
Additionally, Colgate is ranked #35 in Rim and 3 SQ PPP, taking advantage of opportunities at the rim and from 3. This is not a team that you can allow to get open looks from deep. Colgate is ranked #1 in the nation shooting an elite 41% from beyond the arc!
Colgate is going to be bombs away from deep all game and it is how you pull off upsets in March. Also, the back door cover will be open all game if we need it. Colgate hitting a pointless buzzer beater to lose by 13 and you get the, “that shot was important to some.” Might be worth considering just taking them in the first half +7.5 if you are worried about Texas eventually taking control of the game.
Last game on the card is the one I am looking forward to watching most. Here we have arguably two of the hottest teams in the nation facing off in Duke (won 9 straight) and Oral Roberts (won 17 straight). Duke seems to be a sleeper final 4 team for a lot of brackets while Oral Roberts will be trying to upset the Blue Devils.
The Pick: ORAL ROBERTS +6.5
I will be taking the underdog here and backing the Golden Eagles. ShotQuality is projecting this as a 10 point victory for Duke but I will be doing something I rarely do and go against the model. This is not a good idea long term, but I have no problem fading the model when it is projecting a favorite to cover because after all it’s March!
What led me to back Oral Roberts is the breakdown on SQ Shot Selection and Rim and 3 SQ PPP. These are areas that I am always focusing on and Oral might not be as outmatched as you would think.
The Duke Blue Devils rank #50 on offense when it comes to SQ Shot Selection. This is nothing special for Duke and especially when you factor in that Oral Roberts is #14 in defensive Shot Selection. Part of that is thanks to 7 foot 5 big man Connor Vanover for Oral Roberts. Don’t just assume that since it is Duke they will have the bigger guys. This guy is a unicorn who can also step out and hit a 3 pointer as he is 33% on the season.
Oral Roberts on offense is a team that takes advantage of those high value opportunities from 3 and at the rim. The Golden Eagles rank #37 in Rim and 3 SQ PPP and will be facing a Duke defense that ranks #120 against these attempts.
I also like the tournament experience that Oral Roberts has had, they aren’t just happy to be here like some teams. Paul Mills, the Oral Roberts coach, has made a sweet 16 before and that was fueled by superstar guard Max Abmas who is averaging 22 points this year. This is a team that is expecting to be able to win this game.
Jon Scheyer has rebranded this Duke team, as they are a defensively oriented team now while also playing at a slower pace. However, I don’t think this will fluster Oral Roberts at all. They are ranked #11 in the nation when it comes to half court efficiency per ShotQuality. I would not be surprised if Jon Scheyer’s first tournament game is a loss by tournament darling Max Abmas and company.
About the Author
Max Hofmeyer is someone who eats, sleeps, and breathes college basketball. Like most gamblers, he doesn’t just watch the games for entertainment, he wants to make some money along the way. Max first became a subscriber of ShotQuality last year and posted his most profitable season yet. This season, with the help of ShotQuality, Max is 159-119-3, +28.1u on posted plays. Make sure to follow Max on Twitter!