| Team | SQ | Torv | Has | KP | NET | AVG | |
| 1. | Gonzaga | 22 | 7 | 2 | 8 | 6 | 9.00 |
| 2. | Saint Mary’s | 13 | 9 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11.00 |
| 3. | San Diego State | 30 | 11 | 13 | 14 | 14 | 16.40 |
| 4. | Utah State | 49 | 25 | 18 | 18 | 18 | 25.60 |
| 5. | FAU | 65 | 31 | 25 | 26 | 13 | 32.00 |
| 6. | Boise State | 68 | 30 | 37 | 31 | 29 | 39.00 |
| 7. | Nevada | 69 | 60 | 45 | 43 | 37 | 50.80 |
| 8. | Liberty | 79 | 44 | 41 | 48 | 44 | 51.20 |
| 9. | UAB | 50 | 55 | 59 | 62 | 57 | 56.60 |
| 10. | VCU | 81 | 61 | 40 | 58 | 53 | 58.60 |
| 11. | New Mexico | 70 | 54 | 65 | 52 | 54 | 59.00 |
| 12. | North Texas | 110 | 48 | 64 | 45 | 38 | 61.00 |
| 13. | Oral Roberts | 132 | 70 | 42 | 56 | 36 | 67.20 |
| 14. | Drake | 130 | 45 | 53 | 55 | 55 | 67.60 |
| 15. | Charleston | 91 | 72 | 81 | 73 | 51 | 73.60 |
| 16. | BYU | 74 | 76 | 69 | 75 | 85 | 75.80 |
| 17. | Santa Clara | 63 | 77 | 73 | 82 | 84 | 75.80 |
| 18. | Sam Houston St. | 94 | 68 | 93 | 69 | 65 | 77.80 |
| 19. | Kent State | 107 | 79 | 74 | 71 | 59 | 78.00 |
| 20. | Dayton | 102 | 67 | 70 | 78 | 78 | 79.00 |
| 21. | Yale | 126 | 82 | 67 | 67 | 64 | 81.20 |
| 22. | UNLV | 41 | 95 | 96 | 91 | 91 | 82.80 |
| 23. | Bradley | 112 | 85 | 76 | 86 | 72 | 86.20 |
| 24. | Iona | 154 | 71 | 89 | 74 | 58 | 89.20 |
| 25. | San Jose State | 72 | 97 | 97 | 93 | 95 | 90.80 |
There is a new #1 in the Mid-Major Top 25, with Gonzaga leapfrogging conference foe Saint Mary’s after blowing them out 77-51 in the WCC title game. New Mexico, who missed the field of 68 and will play in the NIT, bowed out of the top ten, being replaced by A-10 Tournament winner VCU.
Kent State jumped five spots after downing Toledo in the conference championship, while Dayton and Yale fell into the 20s after losing their respective title games. Utah Valley has never lasted more than one week in the top 25, falling out of favor for the San Jose Spartans. The Spartans upset Nevada in the MWC Tournament before getting crushed by eventual champion SDSU. Just outside the top 25 is Furman, who made the March Madness field and will square off against Virginia in the Round of 64.
Gonzaga (NCAA Tournament)
One of the few mid-major conferences worthy of multiple bids, Gonzaga would have made the field of 68 regardless of how they performed in the WCC tourney. However, they stomped out Saint Mary’s 77-51, jumping the Gaels on most analytical websites.
Saint Mary’s (NCAA Tournament)
Although SMC got bludgeoned in the WCC title game, ShotQuality expected the Gaels to score 12 more points on finishes at the rim, and Gonzaga should have scored ten fewer points on threes. Instead, SMC will square off against VCU in the 5-12 matchup in the West Region.
San Diego State (NCAA Tournament)
The Aztecs were amazing in March, rattling off four straight real and SQ wins, including a tough win over Utah State in the MWC title game. SDSU will duke it out with a 30-win Charleston team in the Round of 64 on Thursday.
Utah State (NCAA Tournament)
Despite a narrow loss to the Aztecs, as mentioned above, in the conference championship, the Aggies of Utah State have beat Boise State twice and New Mexico once in the last 14 days. They have a tough battle against Missouri in the Round of 64, but ShotQuality has the Aggies winning 71-70.
FAU (NCAA Tournament)
Although being a darling on most analytical sites and winning the C-USA with a convincing win over UAB, the Owls are considered the underdog in their 8-9 matchup against Memphis. ShotQuality has it as a close game, with FAU winning 33% of the time.
Boise State (NCAA Tournament)
A popular pick to beat Northwestern in the Round of 64, The Broncos are 1-3 in their last four games per the ShotQuality record. However, on average, their previous three SQ losses (1-2 in the actual record) are by two points.
Nevada (NCAA Tournament)
The Wolfpack will take on ASU in tonight’s play-in game, but they should be considered lucky even to have the opportunity after a lackluster showing to end the regular season. They edged out Clemson and Rutgers to make the field of 68.
Liberty (NIT)
Liberty took down Villanova in the first round of the NIT last night. However, ShotQuality had the Flames beating Kennesaw State in their title game, making them the automatic qualifier out of the A-Sun.
UAB (NIT)
The second team on this list to participate in the NIT, The Blazers took their anger out on Southern Miss in a 88-60 win. Fifth-year senior KJ Buffen dominated, scoring 26 points while placing in the 71st percentile in SQ PPP.
VCU (NCAA Tournament)
ShotQuality’s top Atlantic-10 team, the VCU Rams, will take on the Saint Mary’s Gaels in a mid-major battle in the Round of 64. VCU is ranked 81st in both adjO and ajD rankings.
New Mexico (NIT)
After a 13-0 start to the season, the Lobos fell out of favor in the MWC and missed the field of play entirely. Instead, they will take on Utah Valley tonight in the first round of the NIT.
North Texas (NIT)
With a -20.31 record luck, the Noth Texas Mean Green was among the luckiest mid-majors this season. But, despite the good fortune, the Mean Green fell just one game short of the C-USA title game, crushing any hopes of an at-large bid.
Oral Roberts (NCAA Tournament)
The Golden Eagles enter the NCAA Tournament as one of the hottest teams in the country, winning 17 in a row and taking the Summit League title with ease. They will take on Duke in the first round, another team riding hot heading into the Big Dance.
Drake (NCAA Tournament)
The Bulldogs are one of the oldest teams in the tourney and won’t be intimidated by a good Miami squad. In addition, Drake returns to the NCAA Tournament after just a one-year hiatus.
Charleston (NCAA Tournament)
Despite a 30-win season, the Cougars are 91st in adjSQ. CofC will take on San Diego State in the first round, a matchup ShotQuality has Charleston losing by ten points.
BYU (N/A)
Santa Clara (NIT)
The Broncos will square off against Sam Houston State in Wednesday’s first round of the NIT. Although they missed the Big Dance, Santa Clara had an all-around successful season led by superstar Brandin Podziemski.
Sam Houston State (NIT)
Santa Clara’s opponent in the first round, the Bearkats, missed out on the NCAA Tournament when they were upset by GCU in the WAC tourney. However, ShotQuality had the matchup one-sided in favor of SHSU, with them winning 95% of the time.
Kent State (NCAA Tournament)
The Flashes took down Toledo in the conference title to punch their ticket to the Big Dance. In addition, they are 20th in the country in defensive turnover rate and will face Indiana in the first round on Friday.
Dayton (N/A)
Yale (NIT)
The #1 ranked Ivy League team in adjSQ, the Yale Bulldogs slipped up to Princeton in the title game and dropped their first-round NIT matchup to Vandy yesterday. Unfortunately, the ball didn’t lie in the Ivy League championship game, with SQ having them losing by more points than the actual score indicated.
UNLV (N/A)
Bradley (NIT)
Like Yale, The Bradley Braves got thumped in their first-round matchup in the NIT. Despite entering the MVC championship game on a 12-game winning streak, they will finish their year with back-to-back blowout losses.
Iona (NCAA Tournament)
The Gaels won the MAAC relatively easily and will take on the UConn Huskies in the Round of 64. ShotQuality has it being a semi-close game, with UConn edging them out 74-67.
San Jose State (CBI)
The only CBI participant on the list, SJSU, will take on Southern Indiana on Saturday. If anything, the Spartans proved to be a pesky group this season that teams should never take lightly.