By Max Hofmeyer
Welcome back Max-a-Millionaires to the Friday Round of 64 edition of Max-a-Million picks. Yesterday delivered as March Madness always does as we got to see some crazy upsets, including a 15 seeded Princeton beating Arizona. Although we had Arizona on the card, if they aren’t going to cover, I am glad they lost outright (RIP to some brackets). I am shocked they just refused to throw the ball inside every play but I digress.
We ended up going 1-3 yesterday which wasn’t great but those who follow on Twitter and took my full card ended up going 5-4. Just picked the wrong games to use for Max-a-Million so hand up, that’s on me. It’s not happening again as I’ve got another 4 plays locked and loaded this morning.
For our first play of the day, I will be betting this game between 3 seeded Xavier and 14 seeded Kennesaw St. This will be the first tournament game ever for the Kennesaw program and Sean Miller’s first tournament game of his rebooted Xavier career.
The Pick: XAVIER -12.5
For the first play of the day I will be laying the points here in this afternoon matchup. ShotQuality is projecting this game to be about a 17 point win for the Musketeers.
Xavier’s engine all year has been their ability to outscore their opponents. Xavier is ranked #37 in Adjusted ShotQuality Offense and will be facing off a Kennesaw defense that is #155. Where Xavier really excels is with their SQ Shot Making and Rim and 3 SQ PPP.
ShotQuality Shot Making measures how much more efficiently a team is performing compared to an average player taking each shot. Xavier ranks #58 in Shot Making which tells us that they are a team that can knock down shots, regardless of defensive pressure. This makes sense when you have guys like Colby Jones and Souley Boum who are bucket getters. It also will help that the Kennesaw defense ranks #308 in SQ Shot Making.
Rim and 3 SQ PPP is the calculated efficiency of each team when attempting a shot at the rim or from 3. This is another area Xavier is good at as they are ranked #89 in the country.
Xavier’s offense isn’t a team that gets to the line often as they rank #203 in Free Throw Rate. However, they should have more opportunities at the stripe compared to usual as Kennesaw’s defense is #292 in Free Throw Rate.
I think Kennesaw is a team that is just happy to be dancing for the first time ever. If you look at the image above, Kennesaw played three games in the conference tournament, all at home. Every single game ShotQuality projected that they should have lost. They won 2 of these games by a single point and in the Liberty game, Liberty’s best player went 0-11 from 3!
The Kennesaw St. Owls are a team I have been waiting to fade and I like selling high on them and buying low on a Xavier team that got dominated in the Big East Championship. I am expecting a comfortable win and cover here for the Musketeers. I hate taking favorites in March but majority of favorites did decent yesterday…except Arizona.
Next up on the card is this game between Baylor and UC Santa Barbara. The Gauchos were a team we backed in the Big West Championship as they got the win and cover for us. Today they are tasked with one of the best teams from the Big 12.
The Pick: UNDER 141.5
ShotQuality is projecting this one to be a win for Baylor by a score of about 73-63 which would put us under the total. This is going to be a tough matchup for the Gauchos which is why I ultimately ended up going with the under.
UCSB is ranked #203 in Adjusted ShotQuality Offense and is going to be facing off against a Baylor defense that is #10. Points are not going to come easy here for the Gauchos so if they want to win they are going to have to try and muck it up.
I think UCSB is going to try and win this game with some defense. UCSB ranks #79 in Adjusted ShotQuality Defense and if you look in the breakdown above, they are green in pretty much every category. Obviously Baylor will be a tough offense to try and contain but we have seen the Bears fall into slumps often this year.
ShotQuality is also expecting some regression on both sides of the ball in positive ways for our under. First, let’s take a look at the image above. The USCB offense is expected to see 5% regression when it comes to finishing at the rim.
For the Baylor defense, they are expected to see a decrease in opponents percentage of shots made at the rim. That means they were allowing a higher than expected amount of made shots at the rim, a UCSB team should be a perfect opportunity to improve on defense.
Similarly, if we take a look above at the Baylor offense and USCB defense, we are seeing a similar expectation. SQ is expecting some regression from the offenses and improvements on defense and I think we see it here.
A tournament game is a perfect opportunity for expected regression to come to fruition as the stakes are higher and players can sometimes get tight.
For our next bet I am looking at this game between 2 seed Marquette and 15 seed Vermont. Marquette was able to win the Big East regular season title and championship to earn their 2 seed.
First of all, I have to mention that Shaka Smart’s tenure at Texas was full of bad beats in the tournament. In his first tourney game with the program we got the infamous Paul Jesperson shot (click the link, it is worth a watch to remind us of the madness that is March).
His career ultimately ended with his last game coached at Texas being a 53-52 upset loss to Abilene Christian in the first round. Now that we got that out of the way, let’s dive into the game.
The Pick: VERMONT +10.5
ShotQuality is projecting this game to be a little closer than some might expect. SQ has the Catamounts losing a close one by about 6 points. The ultimate question is will the 15 seed be able to keep it this close and I think the answer is yes!
This is a pick we aren’t going to overthink. I am riding with the model and most importantly, the model likes an underdog. We all know what March Madness is all about and it is about the underdogs. There is no excuse for a team like Arizona to lose to Princeton but stuff like this happens every year!
Specifically, I like the game flow that Vermont is going to try and throw at Marquette. The Catamounts are a good defensive rebounding team (11th in the nation) and aren’t going to let Marquette get extra opportunities off misses.
When Vermont does grab those boards, they are going to slow the tempo down. Vermont plays at a tempo that ranks 316th in pace. Fewer possessions make me like our chances at a Vermont cover more than an up and down game. The only concern about tempo is usually the better team controls it, so we will have to keep an eye on that.
Similar to Furman yesterday, in a game with fewer possessions if a team can get hot from 3 they can stay in a game or even win outright. Vermont is a team that shoots a lot of threes (48th in attempts) and shoots an efficient 36% (73rd in D1). Meanwhile, Marquette is not a team that defends the three well. Opponents are shooting 35% from three against Marquette which would be 258th in the country.
It is for that reasoning why I placed this bet below that Vermont wins the race to 10 points. Vermont is going to be chucking them from deep so if they can see a few go in early, I like them at +170 to be the first team to 10. These odds are suspiciously low here too for a 2 seed vs 15 seed matchup.
This game could be an intriguing watch if the model is correct and it goes how we predict. Similar to Colgate yesterday, if you want to just play Vermont in the first half I have no issue with that at all. Marquette might be able to take control late but I will be hoping the Catamounts can get some March fever and knock down some triples all day.
Lastly, I will be ending our card with this matchup between 3 seed Kansas St. and 14 seed Montana St. In this one we have a battle of the cats as the Bobcats of Montana St. will be trying to pull off the upset against the Wildcats of Kansas St.
The Pick: MONTANA ST. +8
I will be riding with the Big Sky champs here and taking the points. ShotQuality is projecting this to be about a 74-68 win for Kansas St. which would be a cover for the underdog.
What I like about this team is that ShotQuality doesn’t really respect Kansas St. here as a 3 seed. I think this is a weak 3 seed as Kansas St. is ranked #25 per SQ. Montana St. should be able to compete in this one with some good defense, keeping this game close.
Montana St. is ranked #67 in Adjusted ShotQuality Defense, and specifically excels in those key areas I am often talking about. Montana St. is #57 in defensive SQ Shot Selection and ranked #29 in Rim and 3 SQ PPP on defense. I am expecting Kansas St. to struggle to convert at those opportunities from 3 and at the rim.
Another thing I like about the Bobcats here is how they finished the season. If you look at the image above, they not only won 13 of their last 14 games, but ShotQuality expected them to win all 14! I like that out of a team when the model is agreeing with the result of a basketball game. So let’s hope the model is right here and we get the Montana St. cover.
Make sure to follow me on Twitter as I tweeted a bunch of these plays and more on Selection Sunday. This includes Baylor Under 143.5, Vermont +13.5, Montana St. +10.5, and Xavier -12! Those are all better than the current lines I have to give out on Max-a-Million, but let’s hope we don’t them. Happy March everyone and let’s make some green on St. Patty’s day!
About the Author
Max Hofmeyer is someone who eats, sleeps, and breathes college basketball. Like most gamblers, he doesn’t just watch the games for entertainment, he wants to make some money along the way. Max first became a subscriber of ShotQuality last year and posted his most profitable season yet. This season, with the help of ShotQuality, Max is 159-119-3, +28.1u on posted plays. Make sure to follow Max on Twitter!