By Justin Perri
It’s March and everyone at ShotQuality is in full Madness mode. It’s honestly difficult to get replies on Slack from some people because of how crazy things are! But, I did manage to round up a few of my talented coworkers in an attempt to share what the brackets from our group ended up looking like! I also asked them questions about their strategy, some of them answered those questions (some did not lol) and I’ve included that here as well.
Enjoy!!
Ethan – Data
Favorite CBB Team?
Villanova
What is your overall strategy or trends you follow when making a bracket?
Don’t get caught up in hypothetical matchups, and rely on teams with good, experience guards.
Which picks from the SQ value bracket did you adopt into your own?Which region was the toughest for you to pick and why?
Gonzaga over UCLA
Which region was the toughest for you to pick and why?
The west, so many good teams.
In your opinion what’s the biggest upset you picked?
Creighton over Arizona
Did you use the bracket builder to help? What settings did you find fun?
Yes, I am a big fan teams that get to the line and limit turnovers, which helped me bring Gonzaga further than I initially had, and supported some of my first-round picks. The “worst shooters” section also helped me avoid teams TCU and Iowa St. that could struggle to put up enough points to get wins in their tough regions.
Cinderella run guess? (Double digit seed)
Drake
Ethan’s Bracket:
Bennett – Data
Favorite CBB Team?
Providence
What is your overall strategy or trends you follow when making a bracket?
I compare projections to public pick percentages to identify which teams are overvalued or undervalued by the consensus. By fading teams that are popular and picking teams that are overlooked, you can gain a competitive advantage over the other people in your pool.
Pool size is also a significant consideration. If you’re competing against ten people, you shouldn’t have the same bracket as you would versus ten thousand people. The bracket I’ve submitted assumes quite a bit of risk, as I like to enter larger pools even if it means I’m less likely to win.
Which picks from the SQ value bracket did you adopt into your own?Which region was the toughest for you to pick and why?
I have a ton of overlap with the SQ value bracket because I approach filling out a bracket with the same philosophy. I like to play in larger pools, and you really need to differentiate from the consensus in order to finish in the 90th+ percentile. A lot of the popular picks are narrative-driven – “The Mountain West never does well in the tournament”, “Tennessee always bows out early”, and so on. The value bracket does a great job quantifying exactly which teams are overvalued and undervalued by the general public.
Which region was the toughest for you to pick and why?
The East was the toughest region for me to pick. I’m considerably lower on the top three seeds than consensus, so I took some longer shots to win multiple games. Hopefully it pays off!
In your opinion what’s the biggest upset you picked?
Every year I’m a sucker for Vermont, and this year is no exception. I’m confused why this is a double digit line and grabbed Vermont +11.5 at open. It’s reassuring to see that the ShotQualityBets model is in agreement, making Marquette just a 6.8 point favorite. The Golden Eagles are shaping up to be a very trendy final four pick, so I was already going to be out on them early.
Did you use the bracket builder to help? What settings did you find fun?
I watch a ton of college basketball and already have strong opinions of which teams I like and don’t like relative to the market, but I had fun playing around with the bracket builder to see if there were any significant features that I wasn’t initially considering.
Cinderella run guess? (Double digit seed)
Drake and Kent State are the two most likely teams seeded 12 or higher to make the second weekend. Both are short underdogs in their first game, and could potentially square off this weekend. Of the two, I like Drake’s odds slightly more likely to make a run. I’ve been lower than the market on Miami throughout the season, and it’s unclear whether or not Norchad Omier will be able to suit up for ‘Canes after injuring his ankle in the ACC tournament last week. Even if he does play, I’m not sure how effective he’ll be, and they’re already lacking in terms of frontcourt depth.
Bennett’s Bracket:
Alec – Content
Favorite CBB Team?
Virginia
What is your overall strategy or trends you follow when making a bracket?
Take ShotQuality data to the dome.
Which picks from the SQ value bracket did you adopt into your own?Which region was the toughest for you to pick and why?
Indiana & Tennessee
Which region was the toughest for you to pick and why?
West. It’s loaded with 4 SQ teams within the top ten of adjSQ (UConn, Kansas, UCLA, TCU)
In your opinion what’s the biggest upset you picked?
Montana State over K-State
Did you use the bracket builder to help? What settings did you find fun?
Yes. 3 PT SQ PPP
Cinderella run guess? (Double digit seed)
Drake
Alec’s Bracket:
“Please don’t roast my handwriting” – Alec
Justin – Product / Content
Favorite CBB Team?
I don’t really have one since went to a small D3 school, Hamilton College, so that’s my ‘favorite’ but we’re not relevant so if we’re talking only D1… probably any of the NYC schools – St Johns, Fordham, Columbia, St Francis Brooklyn (lol) even Iona since I’m from Westchester.
What is your overall strategy or trends you follow when making a bracket?
All gut, no breaks. Maybe factor in a bit of the info I use for betting the spreads and usually siding with the picks that go with my first round bets, but after that it’s a mix of leverage, pure madness and what I think might actually happen. Also fade the MWC (except SDSU)
Which picks from the SQ value bracket did you adopt into your own?Which region was the toughest for you to pick and why?
Loved the Memphis over Purdue value spot that we pointed out and love this Memphis team in general so I went with that. I also rode with San Diego St to beat the heavily HEAVILY selected Alabama. 75% picked to make the Elite 8 is way too high.
In your opinion what’s the biggest upset you picked?
Gotta be the 1 seeds losing early. I only have Houston in the Elite 8 out of all the 1s. ASU beating TCU is interesting, if they shoot like they did against Nevada it wont be close. Creighton over Baylor is a big upset too, I guess…
Which region was the toughest for you to pick and why?
It’s a bit cliché at this point, but the West. We spent an hour on the podcast discussing the region and I still don’t know what to do about my elite eight picks there. Expecting there to be some carnage as all 8 teams that I have winning their first round in this region feel like they could make the Final Four. For the record, I’m MUCH better at betting ATS than I am predicting brackets.
Did you use the bracket builder to help? What settings did you find fun?
I did, I love this thing. I played around with a few blends of parameters to understand how the importance of various team abilities might impact their ability to get deep into the tournament. It feels like it’ll be a combo of 3s, Defense and Passing, but duh…
Cinderella run guess? (Double digit seed)
Montana State for sure… even though I do have them losing first round… if they beat Duke the door is open!
Justin’s Bracket:
Simon – Founder
Simon did not respond to questions… I think his favorite team is Colgate though. Not sure…
Simon’s Bracket:
