College Basketball Player Prop extraordinaire Mike Cutri (who is currently up over +100 units betting player props this season) unveils his best player prop for each round of March Madness’s opening weekend. It’s the most fun and exciting time of the year for College Basketball, so let’s dive into the data and see where we can beat the books on some prop numbers.
The Pick: Logan Johnson, Saint Mary’s – Under 16.5 Points
We get a very interesting X’s and O’s battle here in the West Region as No. 5 Saint Mary’s trys to avoid the popular 5/12 upset against a dangerous No. 12 VCU team. This game has all the makings to be a grinder with Vegas showing a very low total of 123. VCU is known for their “Havoc” style defense, making opposing backcourts uncomfortable with their aggressive defensive pressure, looking to speed the game up and generate most of their offense through live ball turnovers and crashing the offensive glass. They won’t have too much success in that regard in this matchup as the Gaels are one of the best coached and well disciplined teams in the country; they rarely turn the ball over and are the 2nd best defensive rebounding team in the country per KenPom. Looking at the ShotQuality matchup, SQ agrees that the Gaels will control the pace in this one, projecting a total of 124. Furthermore, VCU’s intense defensive pressure will force a ton of isolation situations for Saint Mary’s and SQ shows the Gaels may not be the finishers ranking 293rd in Shot Making.
Saint Mary’s combo guard Logan Johnson will get the assignment of being guarded by VCU ballhawk Ace Baldwin, who is one of the best individual defenders in the country. The SQ metrics back up VCU’s bothersome defense, as team’s just can’t seem to hit shots against the pressure ranking 67th in defensive Shot Making. Logan Johnson should be able to slow this game down, handle the pressure and I think Saint Mary’s looks to work the ball inside against an exploitable VCU interior, rather than using Johnson and Mahaney to attack in transition. We just say Dayton center DaRon Holmes score 28 points in a very slow paced game (57 possessions) against VCU in the A10 final, and I think we see Randy Bennett use the same blueprint. Per SQ, we can also see VCU is poor at defending the catch and shoot 3-pointer, and that is not Logan Johnson’s game as he grades out poorly. In a game with low possessions, Saint Mary’s either looking to work through the post or through catch & shoot 3-pointers and one of the nations best individual defenders guarding him, I think we have a good chance of Johnson staying under this high number.
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You can also find more of Mike Cutri’s College Basketball betting content over at FTN Bets.