College Basketball Player Prop extraordinaire Mike Cutri (who is currently up over +100 units betting player props this season) unveils his best player prop for each round of March Madness’s opening weekend. It’s the most fun and exciting time of the year for College Basketball, so let’s dive into the data and see where we can beat the books on some prop numbers.
The Pick: Johni Broome, Auburn – UNDER 13.5 Points
Fun second round matchup in the MidWest region here as we get No. 9 Auburn who will have the Birmingham crowd at their back going up a very banged up No. 1 Houston team. Houston’s veteran leader and best player Marcus Sasser is expected to play with a groin injury but could be limited and starting point Jamal Shead is dealing with a nagging knee injury, which could give the underdog Auburn some life here. Yet, Houston’s aggressive packed in defense highly discourages dribble penetration and post touches, forcing their opponents to move the ball and hit jump shots over the top (Houston ranks 346th nationally in 3pt FGA defense per KenPom), which is a huge problem for Auburn’s offense that ranks 309th nationally in 3pt FG%. Looking at the SQ matchup, this has all the makings of being a grinder with Auburn being one of the worst Shot Making teams in the entire country.
With the help of the SQ metrics, you can see that Houston completely shuts down any post offense, ranking 322nd in defensive post frequency. Auburn’s center Johni Broome is a load downlow, but going against Houston’s aggressive post trap defensive scheme (which Auburn hasn’t seen all season in the SEC) will really limit his opportunities in this one. Another thing to look at is Broome’s ability to generate a lot of his offense through the offensive glass but per SQ, Houston is the 4th best rebounding team in the entire country. Lastly looking at Broome’s individual ShotQuality metrics, Broome is most efficient in the short midrange and in the post, but as mentioned before Houston completely shuts off the paint with their defensive scheme. Overall, Johni Broome should really struggle to find room to operate in this one with Houston’s aggressive post traps and limited second chance points. In what should be a lower scoring game I like Broome to stay under this number.
Make sure to check out all of the March Madness tools and projections from ShotQuality Bets! Use Discount SWEETSIXTY for 60% off any Monthly plan for March!
You can also find more of Mike Cutri’s College Basketball betting content over at FTN Bets.