By Max Hofmeyer
Welcome back Max-a-Millionaires to the last day of the first weekend of madness. We went 5-4 on Thursday, 6-5 on Friday, and 3-4 Saturday.
Those records aren’t killing us but not really helping us either. We are going to mix things up here and do a rapid fire edition of Max-a-Million picks. I am betting every game on the board today along with 2 props for a total of 10 bets! Analysis will be a little shorter but let’s have that breakout day we’ve been waiting for. Sit on your couch all day, fire off some bets, and let’s make some money!
The Pick: XAVIER -5
ShotQuality is projecting this one as about a 73-65 win for the Muskies here. This Pitt team has been a team I’ve been fading a lot down the stretch and I am going to do so here again.
They are off back to back games where they just played inept offenses. Pitt held Miss St. to 59 and Iowa St. to 41! That is impressive for a Pitt defense that is #146 in Adjusted SQ Defense, but that ends here today.
If you look below at the ShotQuality scores, Pitt was actually projected to lose both of those games so I don’t think luck is on their side here today.
The Musketeers are the 36th best offense per SQ and they like to play at a fast pace so good luck Pitt holding them under 60 points. I love this matchup for Xavier to run away here and expose Pitt for the team that SQ truly believes they are.
The Pick: KENTUCKY -3
Those who are following me on Twitter know I gave it out when the line opened at +1. ShotQuality is projecting this one to be about a 5 point win for Kentucky in this battle of the Wildcats.
I don’t love the line here as it obviously made a ton more sense at +1 so if you would rather go with the under I like that one as well. Ultimately, I went with UK because I will trust ShotQuality all day over the seeding in this one.
The 6 seed Kentucky is the 21st best team per SQ while the 3 seed Kansas St. is 27th. Kansas St. is clearly the weakest of the 3 seeds and I think they are exposed here today.
Kentucky has had a wild season as Coach Cal was on the hot seat for a minute but one thing you can guarantee is that Kentucky will travel anywhere for a basketball game. Riding with the model here and the better team to get the job done.
The Pick: MICHIGAN ST +2.5
Again, this is another one I gave out but at MSU +3.5 getting us some value. Still love it here at +2.5 as SQ is projecting the Spartans to get the outright victory here by about 3 points.
This is a game of contrasting style and whoever wins the battle of the 3 point line will win this game. MSU is the 3rd best team in the nation shooting from deep (39%) and will be playing a Marquette defense that is ranked 254th against the 3 allowing opponents to shoot 35%.
Marquette on the other hand is not as good as you would think shooting the 3 ball. They are shooting 35% from deep which is 109th in the nation and MSU is ranked 56th allowing their opponents to shoot 32%.
The battle of the 3 point line will determine the winner of this one. I’ve also got a 3 ball prop again today in the image above (we nailed the Sir’Jabari Rice under 2.5 yesterday).
I am betting Tyson Walker to go over 1.5 threes made and this is on DraftKings. We talked about the ineptitude of the Marquette defense from deep and Walker is shooting 42% from deep on the year.
The Pick: UNDER 127.5
I am expecting a lot of nerves in this one as both these coaches and programs have so much on the line today. Of course the UConn program is historically awesome but it has been awhile since they made a tournament run.
ShotQuality is projecting about 124 points here so not going to overthink it and just take the under and ride with the model. Not to mention, unders have been on an absolute heater currently hitting at 75% for the tournament!!!
If St. Mary’s wants to win; they are going to have to muck it up with some defense. They are the 32nd best defense per ShotQuality and they aren’t a team that wants to play fast. They are going to try and take a page out of Tennessee’s book yesterday as the Vols made Duke uncomfortable all day long.
I’ve got another player prop I like displayed above and it is Mitchell Saxen under 9.5 points on FanDuel. He will have is toughest task of the year facing against UConn big man Adam Sanogo.
Saxon is coming off a 17 point game against VCU so I like the fade spot here. A similar defense that Saxon has faced is when they played Houston and he only scored 4 points. I would expect him to struggle in this one.
The Pick: FLORIDA ATLANTIC -15.5
For starters, I can’t even believe I am breaking down this matchup, what an awesome story for FAU. However, as crazy as it sounds, this could be potentially a worse matchup for FDU than when they played Purdue.
ShotQuality is projecting this as about a 20 point victory for the Owls in this one so I like riding with the model here. The reason I like this matchup a lot is FAU plays a high tempo and efficient style of basketball.
FAU is 11th in the nation when it comes to SQ Rim and 3 Rate as they are constantly attempting shots at the rim and from 3. This is so important as these attempts are the most valuable in basketball.
Not only do they attempt these high value shots frequently, but they are making them at an efficient rate as well. The Owls are 82nd in Rim and 3 SQ PPP making them one of the better teams in basketball at these attempts. Great season for FDU, but riding with Florida Atlantic here to win comfortably.
The Pick: INDIANA -2
When the model says jump, I ask “how high?” Riding with the Hoosiers here and laying the points as SQ is projecting them to win by about 5 points here.
Miami was barely able to escape Drake and I think the season ends here against an Indiana team that played great against Kent St. If you look at the image below, I grabbed the ACC SQ standings for this year.
The ACC is clearly having a down year and this was not a strong conference. I think similar to Tennessee yesterday, we see the more battle tested team be victorious over a weak ACC team. I like both Pitt and Miami to fall today as ShotQuality isn’t respecting them as much as the media might.
The Pick: BAYLOR -1
These are two teams that I wanted to take going deep in March but unfortunately were slotted against each other here. ShotQuality is projecting this one to be about a 4 point win here for the Bears.
What I like about Baylor is they have the DNA to win in March and that includes elite guard play. They have one of the best backcourts in the country with Flagler, Cryer, and George. Their shot making ability is fueled by that elite guard play.
Baylor is the 3rd best team in the country when it comes to SQ Shot Making. This measures the ability to make any given shot compared to the average player. Put a hand in a face and Bears don’t care. This should frustrate Creighton as their defensive effort might not translate to missed shots as they normally expect. This game should be awesome and I can’t wait to watch it.
The Pick: ZAGS TT UNDER 79.5
Going a little different here and taking Gonzaga to score less than 79.5 points in this one. SQ is projecting this to be right at that number as they have the Zags winning by a score of about 80-73.
Ultimately I went with the under because of the Zags struggles in non-conference play early in the season. Remember when we wrote this team off in November and December? Well that was a little dramatic as the team is very good but scoring 80 points on TCU won’t be easy.
TCU has the 14th best defense per ShotQuality so this will be one of their tougher matchups all year. I’ve used a similar theme on today’s card and that is taking these better conference teams against inferior opposing conferences.
I think TCU could get the win here but what scared me away from taking the points was the model projecting the Zags to win by 7. Last time I faded the model, Oral Roberts happened as Duke shoved it in my face so never again (or at least for awhile).
Also, one interesting nugget is that ShotQuality has TCU ranked as the 3rd best team overall! This west region was completely stacked with Kansas, Arkansas, St. Mary, UConn, TCU, Gonzaga, and UCLA! Every game should be tough so let’s hope it is challenging here for the Zags, and keep them under 80 points. Enjoy your Sunday and let’s make some coin today!
About the Author
Max Hofmeyer is someone who eats, sleeps, and breathes college basketball. Like most gamblers, he doesn’t just watch the games for entertainment, he wants to make some money along the way. Max first became a subscriber of ShotQuality last year and posted his most profitable season yet. This season, with the help of ShotQuality, Max is 159-119-3, +28.1u on posted plays. Make sure to follow Max on Twitter!