By Max Hofmeyer
Welcome back Max-a-Millionaires, we have made it to the Sweet 16! Hopefully your teams are still dancing just like my Musketeers. If not, well hopefully we can find some winners for this Thursday slate so let’s dive in and enjoy the Madness again! I will probably tweet out a pick for each game but I’ve got one I really like and breaking down here.
The Pick: TENNESSEE -5
For today’s card I’ve just got one game that I am putting on the Max-a-Million card and that is the Vols laying the points. ShotQuality is projecting this as about a 12 point win for Tennessee and frankly they’ve been sort of disrespected as of late.
I don’t think anyone saw this Sweet 16 matchup coming and both have been playing with a chip on their shoulder. Unfortunately for FAU, I think that run comes to a halt here in this one.
FAU is ranked 53rd per ShotQuality and were fortunate to play Memphis who is ranked 49th and March Madness darling FDU who is 253rd. The Owls will be much more battle tested here against a Tennessee team that ranks 6th in the nation per ShotQuality.
This a strengths on strengths matchup here for the Owls, what they do well is what the Vols defend well against. FAU ranks #47 in Rim and 3 SQ PPP which measures how well a team is able to finish their attempts at the rim and from 3 which are to be considered high value shots. Well bad news for the Owls, Tennessee is ranked #38 at defending these shots.
FAU can get trigger happy from deep as they attempt the 38th most three pointers in the country and shoot 36.7% from these attempts. Again, this is bad news as they are facing a defense that is allowing opponents to only shoot 26.4% from three making Tenn the best team in the nation at defending the three!
If you look at the image above, FAU also has had some record luck this season. They are 31-3 and outperforming the 25-9 record that ShotQuality has projected. FAU has absolutely earned this Sweet 16 run as they can’t control who they play, but I think ShotQuality darling Tennessee will be too much.
We saw a Tennessee team bully a blue blood in Duke and I fear what this defense might do to FAU. Especially if the Owls aren’t able to make their threes, it could be a long night for FAU. However, if FAU is hitting their threes then there is no reason they can’t pull off the upset here. I think the Tenn defense is able to win that battle of the arc and ultimately get a win here and limit the FAU offense. Also, Rick Barnes hasn’t Rick Barnes’d this tournament yet so maybe it won’t ever happen and they cut down the nets!
About the Author
Max Hofmeyer is someone who eats, sleeps, and breathes college basketball. Like most gamblers, he doesn’t just watch the games for entertainment, he wants to make some money along the way. Max first became a subscriber of ShotQuality last year and posted his most profitable season yet. This season, with the help of ShotQuality, Max is 178-139-3, +25.1u on posted plays. Make sure to follow Max on Twitter!