By Max Hofmeyer
Welcome back Max-a-Millionaires, yesterday I didn’t really like the 4 games that we had to pick from so I got conservative with one play. However, no excuses and today is a totally different story as I love the games. Do with that information what you must but without any further delay let’s jump in.
The Pick: SDSU +7.5
For my first pick I will be riding with the Aztecs here and taking the points with San Diego St. ShotQuality has this one projected as about a 2 point win for Alabama which would be a little closer than some might expect.
What I like about SDSU is the style of basketball that they play and how they can use their defense to combat Alabama’s preference of play. The Tide are a team that consistently lead the nation in SQ Rim and 3 Rate year over year. This SQ statistic measures the rate at which each team gets a shot at the rim or from three, the most valuable shots in basketball.
Alabama ranks #2 in the nation in SQ Rim and 3 Rate taking 91.2% of their shots either at the rim or from three. However, SDSU will be their toughest challenge thus far as they can defend against these attempts, specifically from three. SDSU is holding their opponents to 28.7% shooting from deep which is ranked 4th best in D1.
Similar to Tennessee yesterday, SDSU will have to defend the three well if they want to win and cover the game. Ironically, Tenn did defend the 3 well holding FAU under 30% but surprisingly got dominated on the glass (again no excuses Max).
Alabama is laying the same number here as they were against an inferior Maryland team. ShotQuality has this as one of their value finder plays and is selling high after Alabama’s dominant performance against the Terps. I like riding with the model and value finder here for our first play of the evening.
The Pick: UNDER 139
Next up on the card is Houston and Miami where I am taking the under. ShotQuality is projecting this as about a 71-61 which would be 132 points keeping us under the total.
The Houston offense may not be as prolific as some might expect. They actually don’t grade too well in a couple of key ShotQuality areas. The Cougars are ranked #320 in Rim and 3 Rate which means they aren’t frequently attempting shots at the rim or from deep. This is important as these shots are the most valuable.
Along with their Rim and 3 Rate, the Houston offense does not take great shots in general. Houston is ranked #225 in SQ Shot Selection. This measures each shot based on if an average player had attempted the shot. This should help a Miami team that sometimes can struggle on defense only ranking #60 in Adjusted SQ Defense which is good, not great for this level of play.
Miami was able to tear up the Indiana defense in their last game, but I don’t expect that to happen again here. Houston is ranked #29 in Adjusted SQ Defense and has been able to smother opponents all year. I expect them to make it difficult for a Miami team that is very efficient at the rim and from three.
Miami’s offense is ranked #7 in Rim and 3 SQ PPP which is very elite as they are one of the 10 best teams at finishing these high value opportunities. However, this is an area that Houston has defended well all year. The Houston defense is ranked #25 and does a great job at defending these high value shots.
The unders have been hot all tournament and I expect to see that continue here in this game. The games were absolutely electric yesterday so let’s hope tonight’s games deliver again and make some money!
About the Author
Max Hofmeyer is someone who eats, sleeps, and breathes college basketball. Like most gamblers, he doesn’t just watch the games for entertainment, he wants to make some money along the way. Max first became a subscriber of ShotQuality last year and posted his most profitable season yet. This season, with the help of ShotQuality, Max is 178-139-3, +25.1u on posted plays. Make sure to follow Max on Twitter!