By Max Hofmeyer
Welcome back Max-a-Millionaires, this is April basketball where so few teams are lucky enough to still be alive. We are down to 4 remaining contestants who will be competing for the national championship and each team is a Cinderella in their own way (some more than others, I’m looking at you UConn). Anyways, let’s break down these games and find out who I am betting on this weekend.
ShotQuality Projection: SDSU 71.1 – FAU 62.6
We are going to be doing things a little differently for these games than you might be traditionally used to. I am going to talk about the matchup first and then give picks out at the end so stay tuned.
SDSU Key #1 to Victory: Defend the Arc
The Aztecs have made it to this point in the tournament thanks to some stellar defense. Specifically, they have dominated the 3 point line allowing opponents to shoot just 28% from deep this year which is 2nd best in the nation, only behind Tennessee (who FAU beat).
Defending the 3 point line will be especially important in this matchup as that is FAU’s bread and butter. If you look at the image above, FAU is very efficient on their 3 point attempts as they rank 18th at catch and shoot and 64th off the dribble per ShotQuality.
FAU shot 30% from deep against Tennessee, if the Aztecs can hold them around that number I think it would be a win for the defense as the Owls shoot 36.5% from deep on the year.
SDSU Key #2 to Victory: Bradley Revival
Matt Bradley has to get going in this game if they want any hope of winning this game and potentially a national title game. The Senior guard for SDSU has been on a milk carton the last 2 games and hopefully a week off will help reignite his game and confidence.
Matt Bradley averages 26 minutes a game and scores 12.5 points per game making him the Aztecs leading scorer. However, the Sweet 16 and Elite 8 games were a different story. In his last 2 games, he is only averaging 19.5 minutes and 4 points per game. He wasn’t even on the floor for the last possession against Creighton where Trammell hit a game winning foul shot off a controversial call.
The rest of the team has stepped up in a big way or else they wouldn’t be here in the Final 4. However, at some point the Aztecs will need to rely on their Senior leader and I expect them to need him big time here in this game if they want to win.
FAU Key #1 to Victory: Clean the Glass
If the Owls want to win they will have to hit glass both offensively and defensively. A common theme you will see in this article is me comparing this game to the Tennessee game and that is because both Tenn and SDSU have very similar DNA.
Well, in that Tenn game the Owls unexpectedly were able to win the rebounding battle. They grabbed 40 rebounds compared to only 36 from Tennessee which is something the Vols aren’t used to. FAU will have to create extra opportunities on the glass here again if they want to beat a physical SDSU team.
FAU Key #2 to Victory: Limit Turnovers
The Owls can’t be so loose with the ball like they were against Kansas St. This is a squad that only averages 11.8 turnovers a game which is above average. However, in their last game they had 22 turnovers! I’m sure this was a point of emphasis for Coach May and his squad as they almost gave that game away.
FAU Key #3 to Victory: Catch and Shoot 3s
FAU has to be able to find and make catch and shoot 3 pointers. As we talked about before, SDSU is elite at defending the 3. However, they aren’t as good against the catch and shoot 3.
If you look at the image above, SDSU is ranked 4th best at defending the off the dribble 3. However, they only rank 300th in the nation against the catch and shoot 3! FAU will need to both create and make these catch and shoot opportunities.
The question becomes, will FAU be able to find these catch and shoot opportunities? About 22% of the shots FAU takes are from the catch and shoot 3 point variety per ShotQuality. Meanwhile, the SDSU defense is allowing about 25% of shots to be from this variety so FAU shouldn’t have a problem finding catch and shoot 3s. However, making these opportunities is a whole other battle, just ask Creighton!
Max-a-Million Picks:
- San Diego St -2.5
- Vladislav Goldin Under 8.5 points
- Matt Bradley Over 11.5 points
I like this matchup for SDSU and I do think Bradley gets back on track here. I am banking on the senior here to be able to flush last week out of his head and regain some confidence.
The model likes SDSU here and so do I after breaking down the matchup. The Goldin prop stands out because of the matchup and its similarities to the Tennessee game. He only scored 3 points on 3 shots against Tenn and has only gone over 8.5 points once this tourney. If you want the full Goldin breakdown I posted it on my Twitter the other day.
The last thing I will mention here is the fact that FAU has escaped SQ results for two consecutive games. I don’t think they will be able to do it a third time and I think the model gets this one right with an SDSU victory and cover.
ShotQuality Projection: CONN 71.5 – MIA 67.2
This matchup features the two best teams remaining per SQ as UConn ranks 3rd, Miami is 21st, SDSU is 33rd, and FAU is 51st. If you want to be the best you have to beat the best and that is what Miami will be trying to accomplish here. They have shown they can do it as well, beating Drake (111), Indiana (66), Houston (28), and Texas (10). That is a very impressive resume of wins for the Canes.
MIA Key #1 to Victory: Get to the Line
Making free throws is not a problem for the Hurricanes as they are making 78% of their attempts which is 15th in the nation. The issue is getting to the line as Miami only ranks 194th in free throw rate per SQ.
However, this a good matchup for them as UConn is sending opponents to the line very frequently. The Huskies rank 319th per SQ in free throw rate out of a total of 363 teams. This should be a great opportunity for Miami to get some free points at the line.
MIA Key #2 to Victory: Finish High Value Opportunities
Miami is one of the best teams at SQ Rim & 3 PPP as they rank 6th best in the country. This measures the efficiency of a team when attempting a shot at the rim and from 3. This is important as these attempts are the highest valued shots.
This will be tough as Miami is facing a UConn defense that defends against these attempts very well. The Huskies defense is ranked 24th in Rim and 3 SQ PPP so winning this battle will be crucial to determine a victor in this game. They have already faced tough defenses in this statistic and saw success versus Indiana (75), Houston (40) and Texas (67). However, UConn will be their toughest matchup thus far this tournament.
UConn Key #1 Victory: Win Multiple Ways
Some teams like SDSU have to beat a team a certain way and for them it is with defense. However, UConn has the ability to beat you multiple ways and is why they have been so dominant this tournament.
Displayed above are the top 4 teams in the country according to adjusted SQ ratings. It just shows how balanced this team truly is. They are the 4th best team per SQ, 4th in adjusted offense and 13th in adjusted defense.
They have been dominating teams as both the offense and defense have been clicking on all cylinders. This is the only team that has faced 0 adversity so far in this tournament (They were down 2 at half to Iona but quickly erased that and eventually won by 24, which has been their closest test of adversity.) I’d imagine at some point they will be forced to face some adversity and I will be curious to see how they respond.
UConn Key #2 Victory: Andre X Factor Jackson
As a Xavier fan, I have followed this team closely all year. There was a stretch where he wanted to be a scorer and shooter but it just wasn’t working. At one point during Big East play he was on a 1-14 three point shooting stretch over 6 games.
However, this is a guy who has finally found his role for this team and it isn’t a glamorous role. This takes a ton of discipline and courage but his new and improved contribution couldn’t be more vital for this team’s success.
On the season he was averaging about 4.7 assists per game. During the tournament he has had 7, 7, 7 and 10 assists! He is seeing the court so well and finding ways to contribute that aren’t necessarily scoring.
Max-a-Million Picks:
- Total Under 149
- Andre Jackson Over 5.5 Assists
- Norchad Omier Under 11.5 points
- Jordan Miller Under 15.5 points
Going under the total in this one as UConn will be the toughest matchup for Miami thus far. Likewise, I can’t expect the Huskies to continue to just dominate every opposing team. Hopefully a little Final 4 jitters from both of these opponents.
I talked about why I liked Andre Jackson earlier and as I mentioned he has gone over that assist number in 4 straight games. Also, 54% of the field goals that Miami gives up are coming off an assist which is 262nd in D1.
Lastly, Omier should have has hands full in this one as Sanogo will likely be defending him here. Similar logic here with Jordan Miller as this will be their toughest battle here in the tournament. Also, Miller is coming off a game where he shot 100% from the field and scored 27 points. That is super impressive and I am selling high on him here and trusting an elite UConn defense.
This is it everyone! We are putting the final touches on what has been an absolutely electric season of college basketball. Let’s take advantage of these last couple opportunities to make some money! Good luck everyone.
About the Author
Max Hofmeyer is someone who eats, sleeps, and breathes college basketball. Like most gamblers, he doesn’t just watch the games for entertainment, he wants to make some money along the way. Max first became a subscriber of ShotQuality last year and posted his most profitable season yet. This season, with the help of ShotQuality, Max is 188-150-3, +22.0u on posted plays. Make sure to follow Max on Twitter!