By Max Hofmeyer
Welcome back Max-a-Millionaires, this is our final edition to wrap up an incredible 2023 season of college basketball. Saturday totally delivered as we went 5-2 on our picks and got an exciting buzzer beater from the Aztecs.
UConn has continued their dominance and still is yet to face any adversity in this tournament. Will this be the first time they start to sweat in a game? Let’s jump in and find out the angles I am looking to attack in this game by utilizing the ShotQuality data.
ShotQuality Projection: SDSU 64.9 – UCONN 64.6
I think the first thing that came as a shock in this one was the fact that SQ is essentially projecting this to be a coinflip game. I disagree that it is a coin flip game but I think it could be closer than some might expect. UConn has been so dominant but is paying a premium for UConn -7.5 something you are willing to do?
Trends are always important to consider but they can sometimes be misleading if geared towards a certain agenda. I like trends but it is something I always take with a grain of salt.
Something I found interesting was the Tweet I posted earlier (shown above). I still think the Gordon Hayward shot is the biggest “what if” in college basketball history. Similar to our last Max-a-Million, let’s dive into the keys of the games for each team.
SDSU Key #1 to Victory: Make Free Throws
UConn is a team that fouls often on defense as they are 313th in SQ free throw rate so getting to the line shouldn’t be an issue for the Aztecs.
SDSU shoots about 72% but will have to shoot better if they want to win this game. Against FAU, the Aztecs only shot 59% as they were 13-22 from the line. They can’t expect to beat a dominant UConn team with poor free throw shooting.
SDSU Key #2 to Victory: Finish High Value Opportunities
This was something Miami struggled with as they missed layup after layup and were getting very frustrated. This was a combination of Miami struggling and good defense from UConn so we have to give credit to that defense.
UConn’s defense is 25th in Rim and 3 SQ PPP which is the calculated efficiency when a team is attempting a shot at the rim or from 3. This is very important as these shots are the highest valued opportunities in basketball.
The Aztec’s offense ranks 45th in Rim and 3 SQ PPP and will have to win that battle here. They can’t miss high value opportunities like Miami did. It will be a tough challenge as well because the Huskies have some elite defenders to anchor the paint.
UConn Key #1 to Victory: Defend the Rim
Defending the rim is something the Huskies have done well all season. They rank 12th in the nation at defending shots at the rim and it has shown this tournament. As I mentioned earlier, Miami was so frustrated against these elite rim protectors.
This is an area that the SDSU offense has performed well in all season. SDSU is ranked 29th on offense at finishing at the rim per SQ. This will be one of UConn’s toughest challenges thus far so winning the battle at the rim will be crucial for both these teams.
UConn Key #2 to Victory: Quality 3 Pointers
The UConn offense has been great at taking advantage of catch and shoot 3 point attempts. This has been mainly driven by the elite 3 point shooting from Jordan Hawkins.
UConn on offense is 23rd in the nation in catch and shoot 3 point efficiency. This is an area that SDSU does not defend well either as they are 309th against the catch and shoot 3. Where SDSU smothers opponents is when teams try to attempt off the dribble 3 pointers which are much tougher.
UConn is efficient from 3 as they shoot 36% from deep which is 62nd best in the country. However, they aren’t great at creating open looks. UConn is ranked 225th in SQ Open 3 Rate while the SDSU defense is ranked 8th in allowing open 3s. UConn is going to have to make some contested 3s as SDSU is not going to allow open looks from deep often.
Regression Analysis
Looking at the image above, the biggest thing that stands out is the expected increase in 3 pointers allowed by the SDSU defense. This makes sense as it takes both a combination of elite defense and a little luck to be the 2nd best in the nation at defending the 3. This could be an area that UConn exploits and we see that regression.
Looking at the image below, what stood out is the finishing at the rim. This is an important area of this matchup that I talked about earlier. The SDSU offense is expected to see an increase in finishing at the rim while the UConn defense is expected to be allowing an increased efficiency at the rim.
Max-a-Million Picks:
- SDSU +7.5 (-110)
- Total Under 132.5 (-110)
- Matt Bradley Under 12.5 points (-105 DK)
- Adama Sanogo Under 16.5 points (-104 FD)
- Alex Karaban Under 8.5 points (-125 FD)
- Andre Jackson Under 0.5 Three Pointers (-105 DK)
- Nathan Mensah Over 5.5 Rebounds (-115 DK)
- Darrion Trammell Under 1.5 Assists (+135 DK)
Ultimately I will be riding with the model here taking the points with SDSU along with the Under. However, I am slightly worried about the UConn dominance this tournament so I do like the Under more if you don’t want to take both.
For the prop bets, they are all correlated into how I think this game will go under. These were the ones that stood out the most however and if I had to pick a favorite prop it would be the Jackson under 0.5 three pointers made. In the last 4 games he is 1/5 from deep and isn’t really looking to take these shots. He didn’t even attempt a three against Miami and I don’t expect him to make one here against an elite SDSU defense against threes.
Other Unique Bets:
- Jordan Hawkins to make the first 3 pointer +310 (FanDuel)
- Adama Sanogo First FG +500 (DraftKings – Free Throws N/A)
- Nathan Mensah First FG +1500 (DraftKings – Free Throws N/A)
- Nathan Mensah First Basket +900 (FanDuel – Free Throws Count)
These are supposed to be fun sprinkles so don’t go crazy with your bankroll. The Max-a-Millionaires are up over 25 units on posted Twitter plays so if you can afford it, feel free to have some fun with me here.
Hawkins is the shortest shot on the board for that prop and I went with him as he has the talent to make contested threes compared to someone like Karaban who looks to take high value open shots.
The logic for the first basket is I believe both teams will try to take it inside early to settle the championship nerves. I did both FanDuel and Draftkings as I think there is a high chance the first basket is a free throw which is why the odds are shorter on FD.
Farewell and Thanks!
This is it everyone, the national championship! This season and tournament has been awesome as it always is. College basketball delivers every year and I for one will never take it for granted. Let’s post one more winning card this season and thanks to all the kind followers and support this season!
About the Author
Max Hofmeyer is someone who eats, sleeps, and breathes college basketball. Like most gamblers, he doesn’t just watch the games for entertainment, he wants to make some money along the way. Max first became a subscriber of ShotQuality last year and posted his most profitable season yet. This season, with the help of ShotQuality, Max is 194-152-3, +26.8u on posted plays. Make sure to follow Max on Twitter!