Welcome to today’s ShotQuality Bets NBA Pick of the Day article. Our projection model has identified the Atlanta Hawks vs Washington Wizards game as an excellent opportunity for bettors to place a wager on the point spread. The play of the day is the Washington Wizards +11 against the spread, giving them a significant cushion to cover.
To further strengthen our pick, let’s examine a crucial trend that we’ve identified. The Washington Wizards have an away against the spread (ATS) record of 19-19-3, which demonstrates that they’ve been competitive in road games. Furthermore, based on our ShotQuality expected game scores, the Wizards’ ATS record should be even better at 26-14-1. This disparity indicates that the Wizards might be undervalued on the road, making them a solid pick with a generous +11 point spread.
Now let’s delve into the key team stats for both the Washington Wizards and the Atlanta Hawks. The Wizards boast the 5th fewest 3-point attempts allowed on defense (3PA%: 36.7%), which means they can effectively limit their opponents’ opportunities from beyond the arc. Additionally, they have the 5th best defense against shots attacking the rim, further reducing their opponents’ scoring chances in high-percentage areas.
On the other hand, the Atlanta Hawks have the 25th highest frequency of attacking the rim, which might struggle against the Wizards’ strong interior defense. They also have the 27th best free-throw rate (FTR: 0.242), indicating that they don’t frequently get to the line to score easy points. These stats suggest that the Hawks may face difficulties in generating efficient offense against the Wizards’ defense.
Overall, we believe that the combination of the ShotQuality Bets projection, the identified trend in favor of the Wizards’ road ATS performance, and the key team stats make the Washington Wizards +11 against the spread an excellent betting opportunity. The Wizards’ defensive prowess and the Hawks’ offensive struggles could lead to a closer game than the point spread suggests. This line is listed at Caesars Sportsbook at the time of posting. The model would support playing this all the way down to +8.5, but no lower. As always, remember to gamble responsibly and enjoy the game.