As the NBA Play-in tournament moves forward, we arrive at the second round of games on April 14th. These high-stakes, winner-takes-all matchups will determine the final 8th seed teams in both conferences, with the winners facing the first-seeded Nuggets in the West and the Bucks in the East. Let’s examine the ShotQuality data and projections for today’s games and identify any official bet recommendations with a difference of over four points between the line and the projection, which is the official SQ Bets threshold. Please note that these projections are based on 12 noon ET rosters on April 14th, and lines are subject to change.
Eastern Conference Battle for the 8th Seed: Miami Heat (7) vs. Chicago Bulls (10)
ShotQuality’s Projections: Heat 109 – Bulls 107.9
Betting Lines: Heat -5.5, Over/Under 208.5
In the Eastern Conference, the Miami Heat and the Chicago Bulls will clash in a high-stakes battle for the 8th seed. ShotQuality projects a close game, with the Heat narrowly winning 109 to 107.9.
The betting line has the Heat favored by 5.5 points, which is larger than the ShotQuality projection of a 1.1-point advantage. With a difference of 4.4 points between the line and the projection, there is an official bet recommendation: the Chicago Bulls +5.5.
Additionally, the over/under line for this game is set at 208.5, while ShotQuality projects a combined score of 216.9. With a difference of 8.4 points, there is another official bet recommendation: Over 208.5.
Western Conference Battle for the 8th Seed: Minnesota Timberwolves (8) vs. Oklahoma City Thunder (10)
ShotQuality’s Projections: Timberwolves 115.8 – Thunder 111.9
Betting Lines: Timberwolves -5.5, Over/Under 228.5
In the Western Conference, the Minnesota Timberwolves will face off against the Oklahoma City Thunder to secure the 8th seed. According to ShotQuality projections, the Timberwolves are poised to win, with a final score of 115.8 to 111.9.
The betting line has the Timberwolves favored by 5.5 points, which closely aligns with the ShotQuality projection of a 3.9-point advantage. Since the difference between the line and the projection is only 1.6 points, there is no official bet recommendation for this game’s spread.
Regarding the over/under line, it is set at 228.5, while the ShotQuality projections indicate a combined score of 227.7. With a difference of just 0.8 points, there is no official bet recommendation for the over/under.
Conclusion
Based on the ShotQuality data and projections for the April 14th NBA Play-in tournament games, we have two official bet recommendations: the Chicago Bulls +5.5 in their matchup against the Miami Heat and the Over 208.5 in the same game. As always, keep in mind that these projections are based on expected rosters as of 12 noon ET on April 14th, and lines are subject to change.
See full ShotQuality Bets projections here!
The ShotQuality model, and other statistical models, may have more error than usual due to early playoff player rotations and minutes that differ from the regular season. Despite this, the ShotQuality projections remain a valuable resource for bettors seeking an edge in the NBA Play-in tournament. Good luck, and may the odds be ever in your favor!