The 2023 NBA Playoffs are finally here, and the excitement reaches a fever pitch as the first round kicks off on April 15th. Today, we’ll be analyzing the ShotQuality projected scores and betting lines for the four opening day games. Let’s dive into the numbers and identify any official bet recommendations with a difference of over four points between the line and the projection.
Philadelphia 76ers (3) vs. Brooklyn Nets (6)
ShotQuality’s Projections: 76ers 115.5 – Nets 112
Betting Lines: 76ers -8.5, Over/Under 214.5
In this eagerly anticipated Eastern Conference matchup, the 3rd-seeded Philadelphia 76ers take on the 6th-seeded Brooklyn Nets. According to ShotQuality projections, the 76ers are favored to win with a score of 115.5 to 112.
The betting line has the 76ers favored by 8.5 points, which is more substantial than the ShotQuality projection of a 3.5-point advantage. With a difference of 5 points between the line and the projection, there is an official bet recommendation: the Brooklyn Nets +8.5.
Additionally, the over/under line for this game is set at 214.5, while ShotQuality projects a combined score of 227.5. With a difference of 13 points, there is another official bet recommendation: Over 214.5.
Boston Celtics (2) vs. Atlanta Hawks (7)
ShotQuality’s Projections: Celtics 122 – Hawks 114.6
Betting Lines: Celtics -9, Over/Under 230.5
The 2nd-seeded Boston Celtics will face off against the 7th-seeded Atlanta Hawks in another Eastern Conference showdown. ShotQuality projections have the Celtics winning the game, with a final score of 122 to 114.6.
The betting line has the Celtics favored by 9 points, which is close to the ShotQuality projection of a 7.4-point advantage. With a difference of 1.6 points between the line and the projection, there is no official bet recommendation for this game’s spread.
Regarding the over/under line, it is set at 230.5, while ShotQuality projects a combined score of 236.6. With a difference of 6.1 points, there is an official bet recommendation: Over 230.5.
Cleveland Cavaliers (4) vs. New York Knicks (5)
ShotQuality’s Projections: Cavaliers 112.7 – Knicks 111 Betting Lines: Cavaliers -5, Over/Under 218
In a closely matched Eastern Conference battle, the 4th-seeded Cleveland Cavaliers will take on the 5th-seeded New York Knicks. ShotQuality projects a narrow victory for the Cavaliers, with a score of 112.7 to 111.
The betting line has the Cavaliers favored by 5 points, which is larger than the ShotQuality projection of a 1.7-point advantage. With a difference of 3.3 points between the line and the projection, there is no official bet recommendation for this game’s spread.
As for the over/under line, it is set at 218, while ShotQuality projects a combined score of 223.7. With a difference of 5.7 points, there is an official bet recommendation: Over 218.
Sacramento Kings (3) vs. Golden State Warriors (6)
ShotQuality’s Projections: Kings 120.7 – Warriors 119.5
Betting Lines: Kings -1, Over/Under 237
In the Western Conference, the 3rd-seeded Sacramento Kings will clash with the 6th-seeded Golden State Warriors. ShotQuality projects a highly competitive game, with the Kings narrowly winning with a score of 120.7 to 119.5.
The betting line has the Kings favored by just 1 point, which is less than the ShotQuality projection of a 1.2-point advantage. With a difference of only 0.2 points between the line and the projection, there is no official bet recommendation for this game’s spread.
Regarding the over/under line, it is set at 237, while ShotQuality projects a combined score of 240.2. With a difference of 3.2 points, there is no official bet recommendation for the over/under.
Conclusion
Based on the ShotQuality data and projections for the April 15th, 2023 NBA Playoffs First Round opening day matchups, we have four official bet recommendations:
- Brooklyn Nets +8.5 against the Philadelphia 76ers
- Over 214.5 for the 76ers vs. Nets game
- Over 230.5 for the Celtics vs. Hawks game
- Over 218 for the Cavaliers vs. Knicks game
There are no official bet recommendations for the Kings vs. Warriors game, as the differences between the lines and the projections do not meet the four-point threshold.
To see past model plays, results and splits on most profitable bet types, visit our Model Results page
Remember that these projections are based on betting lines at the time of writing. The ShotQuality model, and all statistical models, may have more error than usual due to playoff player rotations and minutes that differ from the regular season. Despite this, ShotQuality projections remain a valuable resource for bettors seeking an edge in the NBA Playoffs. Good luck, and may the odds be ever in your favor!