ShotQuality Live is a powerful new tool for placing in-game bets. Using ShotQuality data, every shot taken in an NBA game is rapidly evaluated. An expected value for each shot is calculated based on historical player shot-type averages and combined with every other shot to produce a live game score.
How can I use SQ Live to make bets?
By comparing the SQ Live score to the actual score from the game, you can determine which teams and players are over or underperforming. This allows you to make more informed bets because ShotQuality helps to determine between good play and luck. Instantly see if the lead is legitimately based off of performance or if one team just can’t seem to make an open look. All is quickly revealed by ShotQuality Live.
Example Bet
Hypothetically, let’s say the Knicks are beating the Celtics 70 to 55 at halftime, the live betting spread is Knicks -9.5. You check out the ShotQuality Live score and see that ShotQuality expected 55 to 49 in the half. From this we can tell the Knicks are hot, they’ve scored 15 more than expected. The Celtics themselves are 6 points above SQ Live expectation as well. Now when you evaluate the in-game spread you can say with confidence that the Knicks are outperforming and might be liable to return to a more normal rate of production. You also can conclude that the scoring in this game might be due to slow down because both teams are due for regression. If what I saw in the game play lined up with how the ShotQuality score looked, I would probably take the underperforming team that got a bit unlucky to miss shots. Which, in this hypothetical case, is the Celtics +9.5 play.
In this hypothetical game we could also have taken a Live Under by the same thought process. Both teams scored more than expected so they could easily stop getting as many friendly bounces in the second half, especially if the betting lines are based off of what the elevated scoring rate in the first half.
Final Thoughts
Of course, not every game regresses or progresses to the mean. ShotQuality Data is most useful as a tool to quickly and effectively evaluate performance and the quality of basketball being played. It is up to us as gamblers to decide if we think strong performances will end or continue, but having the ability to accurately identify these scenarios allows us to find value within betting markets.
Follow Justin on twitter @JustinPerri8 for more plays and insights. Make sure to check back to the ShotQuality Wire for more blog posts!