On May 25th, 2023 at 8:30PM ET, the Miami Heat, currently leading the series 3-1, will face off against the Boston Celtics in a crucial Game 5 matchup. As we dive into the advanced analytics provided by ShotQuality, which uses AI and computer vision to calculate the expected value of every shot taken by every player on the court, it becomes clear that this game could hinge on a few key factors.
Based on these advanced analytics, the ShotQuality projected score for this game is Celtics 113.3, Heat 103.9. Betting lines at 3PM ET on May 25th stand at Celtics -8.5, O/U 215. While there are currently no ShotQuality recommended plays, there are several interesting points of note.
Let’s begin with the key factors in the game. The Celtics rank 2nd in the NBA in Catch and Shoot 3PT rate, with a frequency of 31%. They’re also 5th in ShotQuality Points Per Possession (SQ PPP) at 1.13. However, the Heat allow a SQ PPP of 1.09 against this shot type, ranking 26th in the NBA. This could be a problem for Miami, who’ll need to enhance their 3PT defense to prevent the Celtics from generating high-value shot attempts from the Catch and Shoot.
Further, the Heat have the 8th best offensive spacing in the NBA, while their opponents, the Celtics, have ranked 28th in Spacing. This means that the Celtics excel at preventing their opponents from effectively spacing the floor, something the Heat will need to overcome.
The Heat take the 6th most midrange shots in the NBA, 21% of their possessions this season have come from this shot type, developing 0.94 SQ PPP in the midrange, which ranks them 15th in the league. However, the Celtics rank 4th in defending the midrange, allowing only 0.92 SQ PPP. For Miami to gain value from this shot type, they’ll need to convert at a high rate.
So far in this series, the Celtics were expected to win games 1 and 3 based on ShotQuality expectations, while they were expected to lose games 2 and 4. Yet, in reality, they lost games 1, 2, and 3 while winning game 4. This indicates that the Miami Heat have outperformed their ShotQuality score, suggesting a potential regression in their performance, a glimmer of which we saw in Game 4 when the Celtics finally found their stride.
Historically, the Celtics are 36-15 in home games this year, but SQ expected them to be 31-20 based on win percentages. This suggests that the Celtics normally outperform expectations at home. When it comes to totals, they are 29-19-2 to the Over in Boston home games, closely matching SQ’s expectation of 30-20 to the Over.
In their last game, the Heat ran a high rate of Pick and Roll Ball Screen plays, with 37% of their game 4 possessions taking this form – a significant increase from their season average of 20%. Furthermore, they made a notable improvement in their finishes at the rim, using 37% of their possessions in game 4 for this purpose, compared to their average of 24%. They managed an impressive 1.27 SQ PPP at the rim in game 4.
In contrast, the Celtics stuck more to their regular season norms. Their most significant shift came in their Open 3 rate. Usually, they get a 21% Open 3 rate, but in the last game, they only managed 9%. This could be a critical area for them to improve on for Game 5.
We can expect an intriguing contest in Game 5, with key factors to look out for including the Celtics’ high rate of Catch and Shoot 3PTs against the Heat’s subpar 3PT defense, the Celtics’ ability to suppress their opponent’s floor spacing, and Miami’s reliance on midrange shots.
Moreover, the Celtics’ improved performance at home this season may give them an edge in this match, and they’ll hope to build on their strong performance in Game 4. However, the Heat’s increase in Pick and Roll Ball Screen plays and their success at the rim could present challenges for Boston.
As we utilize ShotQuality’s AI-driven analytics to analyze every shot’s expected value, we gain unique insights into these games’ potential outcomes before they even occur. Make sure to check out ShotQualityLive for tonight’s game to see our companion game page with up-to-the-minute expected data!