As the saying goes, “It’s not how you start, it’s how you finish.” No phrase could ring truer as we approach Game 1 of the NBA Finals featuring the Denver Nuggets hosting the Miami Heat. The Nuggets are riding a wave of momentum into this matchup. Our in-house ShotQuality Projection forecasts a strong outing for Denver, predicting a 108.3 to 99.2 victory.
The betting lines at Noon ET, June 1, reflect this expected outcome, with Denver favored by a solid 9-point margin. With an over/under set at 219, our NBA Betting Model indicates value on the Under.
Diving into the numbers, the Nuggets stand at the top of the league in rim-scoring, contrasted by the Heat’s 25th ranking in rim-defense. This paints a concerning picture for Miami, whose weak rim defense will face a stern test against Denver’s Jokic-led offensive onslaught. Miami’s strategy must involve forcing Denver to take shots away from the rim, which would put a necessary, albeit challenging, emphasis on neutralizing the gifted Jokic.
However, the Heat’s trip to the finals wasn’t a fluke. They have leaned heavily on their three-point shooting, particularly catch-and-shoot threes, where they rank 7th in attempts with a respectable 1.08 SQ Points Per Possession (PPP). This pits them against a Nuggets’ defense ranked 17th against the three-pointer, a chink in Denver’s armor that Miami will aim to exploit for an upset.
Reflecting on recent performances, the Nuggets stand strong with only four SQ losses in their last 15 games. Curiously, two of these came in their away wins, including the sweep of the Lakers, underscoring the grit of this Nuggets’ team. On the other side, the Heat boast a deceptive nine SQ losses in 18 games but have punched above their weight, consistently outperforming expectations, resulting in an impressive 12 wins.
Examining the trends, the Nuggets are 30-18-1 against the spread (ATS) in home games this season, far surpassing the SQ expectation of 22-27-0. This attests to Denver’s home-court prowess, amplified by the unique advantage of playing at high elevation.
As we anticipate the clash of these contrasting styles and strengths, the outcome of this series may hinge on Miami’s ability to adjust their rim-defense and exploit Denver’s weaker three-point defense. Meanwhile, Denver will aim to leverage their home-court advantage and superior rim-scoring ability to get the upper hand.
All in all, the stage is set for an intriguing contest of strategies, skills, and adjustments. Be sure to check out our brand-new ShotQualityLive tool during the NBA Finals for real-time ShotQuality expected scores for teams and players. It’s your ultimate companion for live betting, and the best part is you can try it out for FREE. Just register for a free account on the site to get access during the Finals! Let the games begin.