The Heat took a bad looking loss on Thursday, falling to the Nuggets 104-93, the lowest point total the Heat have been held to all Postseason.
Betting Lines & SQ Plays
At the time of publishing (June 3rd, 5pm ET) Game 2 lines stand at Denver -8.5 and O/U 216.
SQ is predicting this game at 109.7 to 99.1 in favor of the Nuggets. The 10.6 point SQ projected margin is not enough to warrant a spread play, but the system leans towards the Nuggets. The NBA Model is officially recommending the Under play again, after successfully cashing U219 in Game 1.
ShotQualityBets Top Prop
The SQ Props model is keyed in on Michael Porter Jr to go Over 15.5 points at -105 odds. This line is currently available at BetMGM and carries an implied 6.76% ShotQualityEdge.
Porter missed some good shots in Game 1, including a couple good looks from behind the 3PT line. Therefore SQ sees good value on this number as he should continue to have the possessions to reliably reach our 16.77 point projection.
ShotQuality Trends
The Heat are 7-5 in away games during the post season, SQ expected a 3-9 record in those games. This team has routinely over performed on the road, it is a crucial part of why they have made it to The Finals.
The Nuggets are 43-7 at home this season, SQ expected a home record of 32-18. This suggests the Nuggets outperform their averages routinely when at home, likely due to opponents struggling to meet expectations in the Denver altitude, as could potentially be the reason for the Heat’s poor shooting in Game 1.
ShotQualityLive Link
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