In last night’s NBA Finals Game 3, the Denver Nuggets gave a power-packed performance, outmaneuvering the Miami Heat in key areas as outlined by ShotQuality’s advanced analytics.
Rim Dominance: Denver excelled at the rim on both offense and defense. With an impressive 1.27 SQ PPP, they outscored Miami who lagged behind at 1.15 SQ PPP at the rim. The Nuggets turned 26 ATR possessions into 40 points – a significant overperformance against ShotQuality’s predicted 33 points.
Midrange Defense: Denver’s solid midrange defense held Miami to just 17 points from 24 attempted midrange shots, a substantial dip from the 23 SQ points anticipated by ShotQuality.
Standout Role Players: Aaron Gordon and Christian Braun made significant contributions for Denver. Their SQ PPP ranked in the 86th and 84th percentile, respectively, while no Miami player had a SQ PPP in the top 65th percentile. Gordon and Braun combined for an impactful 26 points over 20 possessions.
The game shifted towards a definitive blowout when Braun extended Denver’s lead to 19 with a dunk, late in the third quarter. The score at that point read Denver 82 (SQ 86.6), Miami 63 (SQ 76.9).
With these insights from Game 3, we’ll now delve into the key factors and strategies to watch out for in Game 4.
The Heat look to restore balance to the series, facing a 2-1 deficit at home this becomes a must win situation. Looking back at the Miami’s Game 2 victory, ShotQuality’s data points to a need for the sharp-shooting that helped get this team to the Finals.
The NBA Prediction model is expecting Game 4 at 107-99 in favor of Denver. This narrowly leads to no play on either the spread or the total, as both are just under the 4 point of value threshold. Nonetheless, the model definitely still sees value on the Under in this series and expects Denver to win by multiple possessions.
This projection underscores the impressiveness of the Heat’s run to the Finals. They have put together one of the most unbelievable shooting runs in recent playoff history to be here, the result is that the analytics will indicate they are worse than the Nuggets who have largely performed to expectations. It will continue to be an uphill and against-the-odds battle for Miami in Game 4, even at home.
Looking at the SQ Player props for this game, ShotQuality is projecting Aaron Gordon at 14.6 points for Game 4, and currently his line is available at O12.5 +100. With a full two points of value at even money, this is a recommended play.
Be on the lookout for more Top Props on Twitter and be sure to check out ShotQualityLive our brand new live-betting companion tool. Up-to-the-minute ShotQuality estimations of what is actually occurring on the court!